Shan Chenjin:6.1Is gold bullish or bearish today? Forward looking ideas for early evaluation ​

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Shan Chenjin:6.1goldAre you bullish or bearish today? Forward looking ideas for early evaluation
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Summary:Summary: According to reports, US President Trump(DonaldTrump)Tariffs will be imposed on steel and aluminum from Canada, Mexico, and the European Union. Metal tariffs will be imposed at midnight Washington time (Friday Beijing time)12Click to take effect! Also, last night20:30The US Department of Commerce has released4Monthly CorePCEThe monthly rate of the price index (personal consumption expenditure) is0.2%, higher than expected0.1%, previous value is0.2%；4Monthly CorePCEThe annual rate of the price index is1.8%As expected, the previous value has been lowered to1.8%。


--International News Analysis--

US Commerce Secretary Ross stated that the United States hopes to continue negotiations on trade with Canada, Mexico, and the European Union. It also pointed out that progress has been made in negotiations with the EU, but it is not enough to continue exempting its tariffs. US Secretary of Commerce Ross announced at a press conference that steel tariffs will be imposed on the European Union, Canada, and Mexico25%Tariffs and aluminum levies10%The tariffs. Ross also stated that there are certain limits on tax exemptions for steel and aluminum in Argentina, Australia, and Brazil.2015year1month-2017year12During the month, South Korea's steel exports to the United States meet quotas and will cancel exports to South Korea10%The aluminum tariff! Meanwhile, Ross stated that due to Trump's ability to do whatever he wants on trade issues, adjustments may still be made in the future. If a country retaliates, it does not mean that there will be no more negotiations.


U.S.A4Monthly consumer spending exceeded expectations, creating5The largest increase in months has further released signals that inflation is steadily rising and the economic growth rate will regain momentum in the second quarter. Economists predict that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next month, and core inflation will exceed the Fed's target in the coming months. Federal Reserve5According to the minutes of the monthly meeting, most members believe that if the outlook for the US economy remains positive, there will soon be a moderate increase in interest rates again. However, some members pointed out that inflation is slightly higher in the short term2%In line with the committee's' symmetric inflation target ', this is interpreted by the market as a dovish signal. Also, today is off farm, please pay attention.


--Analysis of spot gold market--


The daily gold price closed at the hammer line, indicating that the upward momentum is still insufficient. Four hour gold price operationBOLLOn track, all indicators are trending upwards with a rebound trend; The space below keeps moving upwards, with weak continuity. At present, the primary pressure above is still1306-1308Region, if1306Breaking through and raising interest rates may not necessarily be bullish, only wait for the real stance1326On the front line, a bullish trend is established. And the support below is still1292-1295Similarly, only when the area is effectively breached can the space below be reopened, otherwise it is a range oscillation; The author continues to be optimistic about the expected early departure before the non farm payroll, and will explore and rebound after the interest rate hike, which is also the viewpoint that the author has always emphasized; Only in this way can it be reasonable, otherwise there will still be many variables after the interest rate hike. Of course, as for what the market will be like in the future, we should not predict now. Seize the present, which is what we need to do now. So don't blindly guess the top and bottom, follow the range step by step, and there will be results when the time is up.


--Suggestions for spot gold operation--


1303-1305First line light position empty, stop loss1308, Objective1298-1296


Real time classic operation techniques for spot gold


1Strong Trend Trading Day: From opening to closing, the market is controlled by unilateral forces, and gold prices move in one direction. This is a great opportunity to build a position in line with the trend, while taking very little risk, because the value range of the next trading day usually continues, which can ensure a profitable exit in sufficient time without suffering losses.


2High income/Low closing balanced market: The day is a balanced market that fluctuates up and down, but closes high (or low), indicating that one party has achieved a hypothetical victory. So early trading on the next trading day is usually favorable for the closing end, so building a position in line with the closing direction is a good move.


3Breaking through the consolidation zone: When the consolidation zone that has been maintained for a period of time is broken through, the movement of gold prices will be fast and intense. This is because market participants' views on value have changed, and long-term forces are very confident in intervening. At this time, it is important to follow the breakthrough direction and enter the market in a timely manner to enjoy the pleasure of sitting in a sedan chair.


4Breaking through the trap of failure: When the exchange rate fails to hit the resistance level (or support level), it usually returns to its original value range with full force. The longer the time period of the reference point being hit, the wider the return range, which is due to the concept of market equilibrium. At this point, it is necessary to react quickly and turn the gun head to strike back.


5Empty jump gap: During the opening stage, due to the strong entry of long-term forces into the market, an empty jump gap is formed. Its characteristic is to provide support or resistance, and building positions along the gap direction also has a high winning rate. However, since there are several types of gaps, such as ordinary, breakthrough, relay, depletion, etc., it is best to distinguish them clearly based on the overall environment before taking action. If a trader can patiently wait, observe keenly, and cooperate with scientific fund management methods to take decisive action, then he will definitely achieve good performance!

Learn to allocate and plan life reasonably. Don't blindly predict your own strength and the hardships of the journey. Be prepared at all times. Understand the importance of rational planning. When it comes to trading, many people are too optimistic about their own predictions, leading to a complete failure in the end. I have a strong belief in my market analysis and operate at full positions, but the result is hopeless. Many people regard this market as a lucrative market, constantly adding money and borrowing money to make transactions, but often when they realize that the market is terrible, they turn back and find that there is no way out. So reasonable planning and careful consideration of oneself and the market are both important.


Author of this article: Shan Chenjin


Author's Message: A broad view and appointment, thick accumulation and thin hair!


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The above content is for reference only. Investment carries risks and caution is required when entering the market.