Shan Chenjin:5.31Sudden situation: Gold bottoming out and rebounding, closing thoughts

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Shan Chenjin:5.31emergencygoldBottom up and rebound, last trading strategy
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Summary:According to reports, US President Trump(DonaldTrump)Tariffs will be imposed on steel and aluminum from Canada, Mexico, and the European Union. Metal tariffs will be imposed at midnight Washington time (Friday Beijing time)12Click to take effect! Additionally, in the evening20:30The US Department of Commerce has released4Monthly CorePCEThe monthly rate of the price index (personal consumption expenditure) is0.2%, higher than expected0.1%, previous value is0.2%；4Monthly CorePCEThe annual rate of the price index is1.8%As expected, the previous value has been lowered to1.8%。


--International News Analysis--

US Commerce Secretary Ross stated that the United States hopes to continue negotiations on trade with Canada, Mexico, and the European Union. It also pointed out that progress has been made in negotiations with the EU, but it is not enough to continue exempting its tariffs. US Secretary of Commerce Ross announced at a press conference that steel tariffs will be imposed on the European Union, Canada, and Mexico25%Tariffs and aluminum levies10%The tariffs. Ross also stated that there are certain limits on tax exemptions for steel and aluminum in Argentina, Australia, and Brazil.2015year1month-2017year12During the month, South Korea's steel exports to the United States meet quotas and will cancel exports to South Korea10%The aluminum tariff! Meanwhile, Ross stated that due to Trump's ability to do whatever he wants on trade issues, adjustments may still be made in the future. If a country retaliates, it does not mean that there will be no more negotiations.


U.S.A4Monthly consumer spending exceeded expectations, creating5The largest increase in months has further released signals that inflation is steadily rising and the economic growth rate will regain momentum in the second quarter. Economists predict that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next month, and core inflation will exceed the Fed's target in the coming months. Federal Reserve5According to the minutes of the monthly meeting, most members believe that if the outlook for the US economy remains positive, there will soon be a moderate increase in interest rates again. However, some members pointed out that inflation is slightly higher in the short term2%In line with the committee's' symmetric inflation target ', this is interpreted by the market as a dovish signal.


--Analysis of spot gold market--


In terms of thinking, we have actually been considering the above1306-1308If the pressure on the market level does not break, the market should still be consolidating in a weak range. And it seems that everyone is deliberately or subjectively designing the market to make it fluctuate, fall back, or even refresh1282The low point, for6Prepare for the end of the month interest rate hike. But sometimes we have to admit that analysis is subjective, while market trends are objective. We need to respect the facts. On Tuesday, we experienced a rollercoaster cross, with a small bullish line yesterday and a slight upward trend today. Although the magnitude is not significant, the direction is strong.

Actually, our definition of gold in the morning was a strong oscillation. And from the intraday rhythm, the price is indeed the same, around1302Reverse draw, but the intensity is not significant, overall stuck within the range. The evening market is affected byPCEData shock, the short-term strong stretching of the US dollar caused short-term pressure and decline in gold. However, due to the rising market risk sentiment, it quickly bottomed out and rebounded. So, if there is any1303If there are multiple orders, and the line is closed in the early morning1302Those above the front line can hold positions overnight, while those with short positions may experience a slight pullback in the closing session1302-1303You can also enter more. Do you remember the beginning of the last Sino US trade dispute? Although there is no gap or high opening, the short-term trend is overall upward. Currently, although the technical aspect is not broken1306-1308The overall weak consolidation strategy of the region is maintained, but the technical impact is relatively limited under the impact of major news, so my short-term approach is not to break through1298Not bearish, it is recommended to temporarily avoid short positions. Suggestions for late trading attempts1302-1303Entering the market, there is expected to be a surge tomorrow when the EU takes countermeasures.


Principles of Short term Gold Trading:


Firstly, it is necessary to establish a trading mindset of small profits. Do not be greedy in the short term of the day, set a reasonable profit margin for yourself, and immediately exit when reaching the target. Then re evaluate the market and patiently wait for the next trading opportunity given by the market.


Secondly, respect the market and comply with it. Traders should always maintain a humble attitude in front of the market. In front of the market, we are always insignificant.


Thirdly, it is important to carefully select trading opportunities that align with one's own trading principles and familiarity, and not engage in uncertain battles. Due to the thin profit margin in intraday trading, it is particularly important to rely on the success rate of sales to win.


Finally, like other types of trading methods, controlling risk is also of utmost importance for intraday trading. For example, being extremely short within a day is like playing guerrilla warfare, with gaining tangible benefits as the starting point and ultimate goal of trading. If you win, fight; if you don't win, retreat immediately, preserve your own vitality, and wait for the next opportunity.

Some people say that movies are regretful art, but in fact, transactions, like movies, have inevitability and immutability. The pursuit of movies is perfection, and classic movies are all examples of perfection, with small flaws almost negligible. However, trading is different. Every wave of market operation, every buy and sell, leaves no regrets. Compared to others, trading is the key100%The art of regret. And this regret always objectively exists, which is a part of trading, that is, every market trend does not strive for perfection. And whether we can have a correct understanding, and even become a consistent pursuit, so we should not fear the future and not dwell on the past!


Author of this article: Shan Chenjin


Author's Message: A broad view and appointment, thick accumulation and thin hair!


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The above content is for reference only. Investment carries risks and caution is required when entering the market.