Shan Chenjin:ADPWhat is the connection between non-agricultural activities? How to predict non farm trends?

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Shan Chenjin:ADPWhat is the connection between non-agricultural activities? How to predict non farm trends?


This week is Super Data Week and it's almost over. Tomorrow is the highlight of this week, and investors familiar with spot trading know that big data represents big risks. We cannot just see profits without seeing risks. And if you don't know how to analyze the market, don't understand the specific operational skills, and don't know how to layout, you can only watch the market slip away from your sight or leave hastily. So for tomorrow's non farm payroll, Dan Chenjin reminds you not to operate casually, especially not to follow the data randomly. We don't just look at data when manipulating it, we also need to combine market reactions and technical aspects to layout strategies.

What is non farm payroll data?


Generally refers to the non farm employment rate in the United States,It is related to the three numerical values of non-agricultural employment and unemployment rate,Released monthly by the US Department of Labor,Generally, it is on the first Friday of each month in Beijing time8Half past or9Release at half past ten. Nonfarm Payrolls,Can reflect the development and growth of the manufacturing and service industries,A decrease in numbers represents a reduction in production by the enterprise,The economy has entered a recession. When the social economy is fast,Consumption naturally increases accordingly,The number of positions in consumer and service industries has also increased. When the number of non-agricultural employment increases significantly,Indicate a healthy economic condition,In theory, the exchange rate should be favorable,Vice versa.


What is?ADP?What is the connection between non-agricultural activities?


Usually released a few days before the monthly non farm employment data,Mainly reflecting the employment situation of private enterprises,The importance of this data lies in:since2000year12Starting from the establishment of the month,The historical correlation with the monthly non farm employment data released by the Ministry of Labor has reached90%。


Non farmgoldThe impact (in general)


Nonfarm Payrolls


Non farm payroll values decrease,Indicates that the economy has entered a recession. Enterprises reduce production. Bearish on the US dollar,Good news for gold.


Non farm payroll value increases,Indicates a healthy economic condition. Beneficial for raising interest rates,Positive news for the US dollar,Negative for gold.


unemployment rate


The unemployment rate has decreased,Representing the overall healthy development of the economy,Positive news for the US dollar,Negative for gold.


Rising unemployment rate,Representing a slowdown and recession in economic development,Bearish on the US dollar,Good news for gold.


(The impact of unemployment rate on gold is theoretically opposite to that of non farm employment data,But in reality, non-agricultural employment data is the main focus.)


The above is just a general operating principle,The market situation is constantly changing,Sometimes the data basically meets expectations,May have limited impact on the market,Sometimes data that is either too good or too bad may contradict the analytical approach mentioned above. Non farm employment data significantly outperforms expectations, sometimes leading to a decrease in safe haven demand for the US dollar,The US dollar index has fallen;Sometimes unexpected weak non farm employment data may trigger risk aversion and market concerns, leading to a rebound in the US dollar. So pure economic data also needs to be comprehensively considered in conjunction with factors such as the stock market, commodities, and market responsiveness. Overall, my viewpoint:Friday's non farm payroll data is basically equivalent to Wednesday'sADPdata From other cases, it can be seen that,The characteristics of non farm payroll data affecting gold prices can be summarized as follows::


first,The relationship between non farm payroll and gold does not always follow a pattern similar to 'higher than expected non farm employment',The rebound of the US dollar,Gold decline;The general idea of "rising on the contrary" is to operate it,Special circumstances still exist. Sometimes non farm farming is great,Risk appetite causes the US dollar to fall instead of rising,Gold rises instead of falling;Sometimes the data is particularly poor,The US dollar is boosted by safe haven sentiment, not falling but rising instead,Gold does not rise but falls instead. The key factor in this is investors' risk appetite.

second,The factors that affect the volatility of gold prices are diverse and evolving simultaneously. After the release of non farm payroll data,Not necessarily playing a dominant role in the trend of gold prices,Even if it is not agricultural, "awesome",The impact on the US dollar and gold is also likely to be a dynamic process,Even evolving like a roller coaster. For example, last month's non farm payroll data unexpectedly weakened, causing the US dollar to fall and gold to rise after the data was released!

Every data market is an opportunity, opportunities sprout in opposition, erupt in discussion, and shatter in cheers. The market is running, with trends emerging between long and short positions, and direction determined by ups and downs. A trend market is unlikely to end in a short period of time. If it ends quickly, it is not a trend at all. People often suffer from greed and want to seize the highest or lowest point in the market, which leads to missing the opportunity to enter while waiting for the best point. This is a problem that all investors have. Profit is equal to a good idea combined with a good method. No matter how good the idea is, if the operation method is not good, it will be in vain. Pursuing gains and selling losses is a skill that many people are good at, but taking advantage of the situation to increase positions is like walking on thin ice and being afraid. This is a typical operation mode of not being able to hold on to the right and holding on to the wrong. Profit starts with changing one's mindset. Don't do things you don't understand, don't chase after high-risk ones, don't pursue overnight wealth, don't expect to always take profits. The mentality naturally becomes calm, and the right decisions are made when the mentality is good. No one can make good decisions when they are emotionally excited.


Author of this article: Shan Chenjin


Author's message: The purest financial management, the highest level of enjoyment!


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The above content is for reference only. Investment carries risks and caution is required when entering the market.