--International News Analysis--
据新华社周日消息,美国总统特朗普当地时间5month26On the evening, he said he still hopes that the Singapore meeting between US and North Korean leaders can be held in Singapore6month12It will be held on the same day. Previously, Trump suddenly sent a public letter to Kim Jong un announcing the cancellation6month12The meeting in Singapore. Afterwards, he also stated at the White House that the meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong un "still has the potential to..."6month12日如期举行”。受上述言论影响,市场风险偏好情绪升温,这对具有避险属性的黄金构成打击。
另外本周市场将迎来诸多重磅数据,投资者将聚焦备受瞩目的美国非农报告,此外,美联储最看重指标——PCE通胀指标也将受到格外关注。外媒调查显示,美国4Monthly personal consumption expenditure(PCE)Price index expected to rise at an annual rate2%The previous value is an increase2%; corePCEPrice index expected to rise at an annual rate1.8%Last month was an increase1.9%。 corePCEThe annual rate of the price index is the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation indicator and has a significant impact on interest rate decisions. The Federal Reserve's inflation target is2%。周五投资者将迎来5月美国非农就业报告,外媒调查显示,美国5Monthly non farm employment is expected to increase19Ten thousand, the unemployment rate is3.9%。在本周的就业数据中,尤其是薪资数据,将对未来的黄金至关重要。如果5月份工资未能强劲增长,那么通胀预期将保持温和。因为这不仅会影响通货膨胀,还会显示美国经济是否会继续增长。
--Analysis of spot gold market--
大趋势是“天”定的,我们只能顺势而为,而消息和数据只能起到推波助澜加速行情展开的作用。自2015年底美联储加息6次,其中用4次黄金迎来底部反转和多头趋势。2次加息之后小级别探底之后30-50美金反弹,并未形成趋势多头。也就是说大家都能预判,都知道的加息,其影响和利空因素在数据前都进行了消化,而加息落地之后往往行情走的是卖消息买事实。6month14号将迎来今年第2次加息,我认为历史依然会重演,大概率迎来多头趋势。
周线级别自2015end of the year2018年初的近2年半的一个走势都有惊人的相似,主要看两个形态。去年1205-1358-1236这轮行情,150美金多头趋势,然后陷入了3-4个月的三角整理,下破探底1236企稳迎来新一轮多头趋势。而最近在这波1236-1366of130美金多头趋势,然后4个多月的高位箱体整理,下破1300探底,是不是和前面完全一样的走法,所以后面探底企稳新一轮多头大概率。