Shan Chenjin:5.24美联储再次强调通胀对称，黄金后市走势分析

[paragraph]
Shan Chenjin:5.24美联储再次强调通胀对称，goldAnalysis of future market trends


Summary:本周最重磅的事件如期揭开帷幕。北京时间周四(5month24day)before dawn2时，美联储公布的纪要显示，美联储官员表示，经济前景将“很快”确保再次加息，并暗示他们将欢迎适度超出2%的通胀目标，表明他们并不急于更积极地收紧货币政策。


--International News Analysis--

Federal Open Market Committee of the United States5month1Solstice2日的会议纪要显示，“多数与会者认为，如果收到的信息广泛地证实了他们目前的经济前景，那么委员会很可能很快就会采取进一步措施，取消政策调整。”根据会议纪要，通胀暂时“略高于2%将符合委员会的对称通胀目标，并可能有助于锚定长期通胀预期”。尽管这份报告几乎证实了美联储将在6月的下次会议上加息，但美联储官员不愿在可持续的基础上宣布实现通胀目标的胜利。与此同时，他们暗示在未来的会议上该声明将面临潜在变化，以表明利率不再具有刺激性，并讨论了对超额银行准备金利率的调整，以缓解货币市场的一些压力。


关于这份纪要，市场充分预期美联储将在6月加息，而5月会议纪要确认了这一市场预期。尽管鹰派倾向坚定，但会议纪要仍大体保持隐晦态度。目前最棘手的问题是，“如果通胀小幅走高将发生什么美联储会任其发展吗?”会议纪要中透露了肯定的信号，但程度未明，市场也未必知道答案。总体而言，如果美联储将在不采取行动的情况下让通胀高于2%，这是鸽派的信号，也解释了美元指数在会议纪要公布后稍稍走低的原因。


另外，在5monthFOMC会议召开前的几天里，金融市场一直处于动荡之中。中国贸易争端担忧加剧，股价下跌，10年期美国国债收益率上升至3%。美国总统特朗普威胁要对从中国进口的商品征收高达1500亿美元的关税，中国誓言要以同样的方式进行报复。尽管两国在周末宣布停火，但特朗普后来表示，他对贸易谈判不满意。周三，特朗普在推特上表示，美国可能需要改变谈判的方向，以达成最终协议。目前，谈判进程仍然显得较为艰难，除了中美之间外，美欧之间也需关注。


--Analysis of spot gold market--


自上周二破位千三后，日线上已经收取了六根十字星，多空博弈之激烈可见一斑。当前上方压制汇聚于1300-1298区域，我们没有足够的理由看好过多反弹，一切反弹的延续必须得有充足的势能配合，而目前的势能明显是不够的，只是震荡反弹略有走高。日线BOLL通道的开口及运行趋向都是朝下的，预示后市继续惯性走低概率偏高，下方我们需要注意的是1285支撑，上方压力还要看1298Near.


日线级别行情可能进入调整阶段，调整充分之后再继续下跌。虽然大方向还是看空，但不要盲目追空。目前行情还是围绕1288-1298区间震荡，并没有突破这个区间，所以我们操作上暂时还是以区间操作为主。黄金维持弱势震荡格局，短期关注反弹力度，金价在突破千三关口之前，可以继续逢高布局空单。但是不要去追空，至少在1290下方不要随意的去追空。


--Suggestions for spot gold operation--


1、1288Nearby, stop loss1285, Objective1296-1298


2、1298Near empty, stop loss1302, Objective1292-1290


如何才能稳定收益，稳中求胜？


Some fundamental factors must be overcome by profit makers, and every step is a watershed; From the moment you enter this market, don't expect to become rich overnight. Good fund management and trading habits are crucial, and maintaining a fixed position is still the key; A small profitable position and a large losing position will ultimately result in a loss! And if fixed cannot make a profit, then it is a matter of probability and success rate!


Trading indicates the beginning of boredom, which is normal. We are not trading for excitement, trading for excitement can only be a way to stay away from this market. Accepting boredom is also a part of successful trading! If you decide on your own trade, then strictly execute it. In the trend, follow the trend and buy high and buy low in the range. Watch more and move less. Also, don't speculate because of the price, think that the price has dropped enough and buy, and don't short sell because the price has risen sharply. Define the trading signal, which is also the only reason for execution! The rest involves emotions, don't let emotions interfere with your operational decisions!

Opportunities sprout amidst opposition, erupt amidst discussions, and shatter amidst cheers. The market is running, with trends emerging between long and short positions, and direction determined by ups and downs. A trend market is unlikely to end in a short period of time. If it ends quickly, it is not a trend at all. People often suffer from greed and want to seize the highest or lowest point in the market, which leads to missing the opportunity to enter while waiting for the best point. This is a problem that all investors have. Profit is equal to a good idea combined with a good method. No matter how good the idea is, if the operation method is not good, it will be in vain. Pursuing gains and selling losses is a skill that many people are good at, but taking advantage of the situation to increase positions is like walking on thin ice and being afraid. This is a typical operation mode of not being able to hold on to the right and holding on to the wrong. Profit starts with changing one's mindset. Don't do things you don't understand, don't chase after high-risk ones, don't pursue overnight wealth, don't expect to always take profits. The mentality naturally becomes calm, and the right decisions are made when the mentality is good. No one can make good decisions when they are emotionally excited.


Author of this article: Shan Chenjin


Author's Message: A broad view and appointment, thick accumulation and thin hair!


σ-σ：330-5379-776V-Letter:scj366


The above content is for reference only. Investment carries risks and caution is required when entering the market.