Shan Chenjin:5.22goldV型反转，日内走势分析及策略

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Shan Chenjin:5.22goldV型反转，日内走势分析及策略


Summary:美元指数维持涨势，稍早一度冲破94关口，现货黄金则继续处于守势。昨日现货黄金录得今年迄今为止最低的收盘价位。随着美国和中国之间的贸易紧张局势似乎缓解，美元触及2018年的最高水平。


--International News Analysis--

美国财政部长努钦（StevenMnuchin）周日表示，特朗普政府将搁置贸易争端，并推迟对中国进口商品加征关税。受努钦这句话的影响，市场风险情绪抬头，现货黄金承压下挫。目前市场风险情绪积极，推动美国国债收益率回升，金价回落，美元走强。10年期国债收益率自2011First breakthrough since3.05%，与此同时，美国股市接近历史高点，所有关于就业和生产率的利好消息，都在助长向高风险资产的转移。


此外，努钦周一还对CNBC表示，他愿意押注，今年晚些时候，国内生产总值将维持至少3%的增长，如果能够持续维持维持这样的增长速度，对美元来说将是重大利好！但从美与全球其他国家贸易来看，而过高的美元显然对出口不利，所以后续，美联储对美元的态度将至关重要。美元一直受益于经济前景改善和利率上升。短期内，上行轨道是否会恢复，很可能取决于定于周三发布的FOMC会议纪要。在通胀持续走高的情况下，美联储是否准备好对抗通胀，或者它是否会对太快加息过于谨慎，将在会议记录中得到反映。


--Analysis of spot gold market--


目前技术面来看，日图布林带开口下行，MA5Under the moving averageMA10均线交死叉强势下攻，K线交投于布林下轨一线，MACD快慢线位于零轴下方交死叉下行绿色动能逐步放量，KDJ三线呈死叉强势向下发散运行，行情表现明显空头形态；4小时图上，布林带开口想外扩张，MA5Mean Square andMA10均线呈粘合态朝下运行，KThe line intersects below the Bollinger track,MACD快慢线位于零轴下方运行快线拐头下行，红色动能逐步缩量，KDJ三线交死叉强势下攻，金价短线还有进一步下行势能。


综合来看，受中美贸易摩擦的休兵，黄金周初录得下跌金价失守1285关键支撑后触及1282一线止跌，下方1280关口作为强力支撑位。操作上，建议以反弹高空为主，低多为辅。上方关注1296前期高点阻力，下方关注1280Integer level support.


--Analysis of spot gold market--


1Rebound1294to1296Near empty, stop loss4US dollars, target see1284to1282On the front line, breaking through and holding;


2Falling back1282to1284Nearby, stop loss4US dollars, target see1290upper.


对空头趋势行情的特点和操作手法做个回顾，以便应对可能到了小空头趋势行情：


A.趋势行情，主方向清晰，那么操作上顺势而为，顺势可稍微激进，逆势稳健或者回避，做单一方向最好，以免思路和节奏紊乱。


B.注意空头趋势的两种调整走法，价格反弹和横盘修正。不管价格反弹还是横盘修正，修正之后都会延续原有趋势。


C.趋势出来要信势。不要整理反复的时候期待趋势行情，趋势出来的时候又开始怀疑，等你后知后觉确认趋势的时候恐怕趋势只剩尾巴了。不要主观预测幅度和猜底，以信号为主。

There is no wine that cannot be drunk, only people who cannot be drunk. This is like pretending to sleep, you can never wake up, people with dreams and pressure can't sleep. After waking up, you only realized that you had made a mistake yesterday, and only after setting up the order did you realize the seriousness of the mistake. At the beginning of the story, there are few beautiful endings, and most end with sadness. In trading, persuading people to stop losses is not a good profession, but taking too many chances is definitely not a good thing. Many mistakes occur, just a small stroke of luck. The place where the trouble arises is a small fire, and a large fire burns oneself out, making it difficult to extinguish the fire. Every time someone asks about their position, it is basically an incurable stage. They take chances all the way, remain stubborn, watch shows all the way, and only seek solutions when there is no solution. At this time, they are basically resigned to fate, and it is almost impossible for one or two words to activate a good account. Cutting off evil thoughts lies at the source, and cutting off luck also lies at the source. At the beginning of each position, set your own maximum loss line, and there is no need to hold it afterwards.


Author of this article: Shan Chenjin


Author's Message: A broad view and appointment, thick accumulation and thin hair!


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The above content is for reference only. Investment carries risks and caution is required when entering the market.