Shan Chenjin:5.14美元弱势黄金不涨？晚盘走势分析及策略

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Shan Chenjin:5.14美元弱势gold不涨？晚盘走势分析及策略
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摘要：周一，受美元走软提振，现货黄金小幅走高。欧盘时段，短线金价在1320美元一线波动，多空双方拉锯，现货黄金没有任何方向。


--International News Analysis--

消息面主要讲一下美元，目前动能虽然减弱，但预计短期内不会大幅下跌。美元应继续从积极的股市中获得支撑，而股市将继续在第一季度财报季表现强劲。不过两年期和10年期美国国债收益率之间的息差已降至2007年以来的最低水平。同时许多经济学家指出，收益率曲线趋平会增加经济衰退的威胁，并可能拖累脆弱的股市，另一方面，美国高额的财政赤字未来也将会拖累美元。


最后本周，全球投资者又将迎来一个“超级周”：1、中美贸易谈判进入“第二轮”！而此次谈判进展势必将引爆全球金融市场；2、经济数据：美国的零售销售、中国工业增加值、日本一季度GDP等经济数据将出炉；3、北美自由贸易协定大限将至，这也将是本周一件重量级的大事！


--Analysis of spot gold market--


目前行情可以说相当的无趣：


1.美元的确走了我们提到的，日线高位黄昏之星反转信号，外加上周五小阴确认，那么防止美元反弹结束，93.5阶段性见顶的可能。日内美元虽然波幅也不太大，但是整体走震荡回落，弱势明显。


2.而黄金并没有走强，虽然没有跌破1318-1317的关键支撑，但是卡在了1320-1321这个地方一字横盘，基本没动静。

美元短线回落，黄金不涨？晚盘美元稍有反弹，黄金恐怕要回落？但是整体近期主思路，美元如果真的做顶，黄金主节奏应该是震荡式反弹重新回到日线大区间整理。不过作为周一而言或者是日内交易来看，周五凌晨出现回落，并且是破位当日的起涨点1318一线，收盘并且无反抽，这就表明今日震荡的概率较大，这一点早间博文已经强调了，另外，最近行情，都是早间反抽，9-10点高点，然后日内阴跌或者跌一次，周五阴跌到凌晨，早间反抽，那么分水岭早间低点。而中间十字K或者大阴线的顶端，是关键入场口。那么目前欧盘阴跌，特别是破早间起涨点，那么晚间一定还要空。操作上依托1320Frontline entry, stop loss1326, Objective1315-1314，不追空，多单暂时不建议。


--Suggestions for spot gold operation--


1320Frontline entry, stop loss1326, Objective1314-1313


短线炒黄金交易原则:


首先，要树立薄利的交易思想。日内短线不能贪，给自己规定一个合理的利润空间，达到目标时要立即出局，然后重新评判市场，耐心等待市场给出的下一次交易机会。


其次，尊重市场，顺应市场。交易员在市场面前，要永远保持自己谦卑的姿态，在市场面前，我们永远是无足轻重的。


第三，要精选符合自己交易原则和自己熟悉的交易机会，不打无把握之仗。日内超短由于获利很薄，要靠出手的成功率获胜，这一点尤其重要。


最后，跟其他类型的交易方式一样，控制风险也是日内超短的重中之重。打个比方，日内超短就好像打游击，以获得实利作为交易的出发点和最终依归，打得赢打，打不赢立刻撤退，保存自己的有生力量，等待下一次机会。

Opportunities sprout amidst opposition, erupt amidst discussions, and shatter amidst cheers. The market is running, with trends emerging between long and short positions, and direction determined by ups and downs. A trend market is unlikely to end in a short period of time. If it ends quickly, it is not a trend at all. People often suffer from greed and want to seize the highest or lowest point in the market, which leads to missing the opportunity to enter while waiting for the best point. This is a problem that all investors have. Profit is equal to a good idea combined with a good method. No matter how good the idea is, if the operation method is not good, it will be in vain. Pursuing gains and selling losses is a skill that many people are good at, but taking advantage of the situation to increase positions is like walking on thin ice and being afraid. This is a typical operation mode of not being able to hold on to the right and holding on to the wrong. Profit starts with changing one's mindset. Don't do things you don't understand, don't chase after high-risk ones, don't pursue overnight wealth, don't expect to always take profits. The mentality naturally becomes calm, and the right decisions are made when the mentality is good. No one can make good decisions when they are emotionally excited.


Author of this article: Shan Chenjin


Author's Message: A broad view and appointment, thick accumulation and thin hair!


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The above content is for reference only. Investment carries risks and caution is required when entering the market.