NFX 品汇国际：美元继续高进欧元退守转折点

Market Review
　　在周四的foreign exchange市场上，美元呈回落整理后再次大幅上涨的走势，美元指数最高上涨到91.64,最低下跌到90.94, closing at91.57。欧美最高上涨到1.2209，最低下跌到1.2095, closing at1.2105。
　　虽然欧央行利率决议没有给与欧元明显压力，但是欧元在德拉基讲话结束后恢复走弱，也令美元短暂调整后恢复走强。美元收益率的优势已经客观存在，美联储逐渐加息的前景也依然稳定，因此美元延续走强的行情值得期待。美债收益率上升，提振美元买需，拖累欧元本周一直走低，驱使部份投资者怀疑始于去年的欧元涨势是否已经失去动能。
　　虽然安倍晋三重新赢回了失去的民心，同时朝美会谈前的地缘政治不确定性依然较大，但该行相信买盘回归仍将为美元/日元提供有效支撑。同时上周美国初请失业金人数降至逾48年来最低水平，3月商品贸易收支逆差下降，因出口增长强劲。交易商开始质疑，美元是否真的存在长期结构性下跌的风险。
　　市场对欧洲央行新闻发布会的反应较为平淡，近期市场其他的驱动因素仍在发力。美债收益率继续攀升为美元提供有效支撑，欧元/The US dollar has fallen below1.2150后技术性因素将导致汇价进一步下跌。通胀前景分化将在未来数月内拖累欧元/美元，而欧元区利率环境短期内也不会出现太大变化。
从技术上来看,美指周四回调企稳在90.90之上，最高上涨到91.64, closing at91.57,意味着美元短线回调后有可能继续保持上涨的走势。
[Trading Strategy]
US dollar index: can be found in91.85—91.35Buying at the lower limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit30Point stop loss, the target is at the upper limit of the range.
Euro/USD: can be used in1.2150---1.2060的区间上限卖出，有效破点40止损，目标在区间的下限。
GBP/USD: can be used in1.3980---1.3880Buying at the lower limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit40Point stop loss, the target is at the upper limit of the range.
USD/Ruilang: You can find0.9920---0.9860Buying at the lower limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit30Stop loss at a single point, with the target at the upper limit of the range.
USD/Japanese yen: can be used in109.55---108.95Sell at the upper limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit30Stop loss at one point, with the target at the lower limit of the range.
AUD/USD: can be used in0.7580---0.7535Buying at the lower limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit25Point stop loss, the target is at the upper limit of the range.
USD/CAD: Can be used in1.2900---1.2800Sell at the upper limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit40Stop loss at one point, with the target at the lower limit of the range.
　　gold: Can be found in the1324.00---1313.00Sell at the upper limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit5USD stop loss, targeting the lower limit of the range.
　　白银：可以在16.70---16.40Buying at the lower limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit0.15美元止损，目标在区间的上限。
07:00:00
Today's Key Financial Data and Events
① 07:01 britain4monthGfkConsumer confidence index
② 07:30 Japan3Monthly unemployment rate
③ 09:30 韩朝首脑开始举行会谈，会谈结束后将签署协议
④ 11:00 日本央行公布利率决议及政策声明
⑤ 13:30 France Q1GDPAnnual rate initial value
⑥ 14:00 britain4monthNationwideMonthly rate of housing price index
⑦ 14:30 Bank of Japan Governor Toshiko Kuroda Holds a Press Conference
⑧ 14:45 France4monthCPIMonthly rate
⑨ 15:55 Germany4Unemployment after quarterly adjustment, Germany4Unemployment rate after quarterly adjustment
10 16:30 UK Q1GDPAnnual rate initial value
⑪ 17:00 eurozone4月经济、工业景气指数、欧元区4Final value of monthly consumer confidence index
⑫ 20:30 US Q1 ActualGDP年化季率初值、实际个人消费支出季率初值、核心PCE物价指数年率初值
⑬ 22:00 U.S.A4Final Value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for the Month
⑭ undetermined 欧元集团召开会议；欧洲央行行长德拉基、单一监管机制主管诺伊、执委科尔出席会议
⑮ undetermined 标普公布英国、德国、意大利主权信用评级，惠誉也公布英国主权信用评级
⑰ The next day01:00 From the United States to4month27Total number of oil drilling in the current week