Shan Chenjin:4.9日线单阳不是强势，欧盘走势分析及策略

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Shan Chenjin:4.9日线单阳不是强势，欧盘走势分析及策略
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Summary:非农数据的意外走弱对gold形成了提振，美元因此承压，同时中美两国在贸易问题上的争端进一步升级，市场避险情绪升温，美股全盘下跌，黄金扩大涨幅，收盘报1333.19美元，日线上涨0.53%。


--International News Analysis--

围绕中美贸易战的消息在过去一周让金融市场剧烈波动，此外，美国非农就业报告和美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话也引发市场巨震。展望未来一周市场，除了关注贸易战的最新进展之外，有两颗“超级地雷”将重磅袭来！它们是美国CPI数据和美联储会议纪要，可能会对美联储年内加息预期产生重大影响，从而对美元、黄金等资产走势构成重要指引。展望未来一周，美国通胀数据和美联储3月货币政策会议纪要接踵来袭，预计将让金融市场出现剧烈震荡。


before 3月美联储的升息声明并未扶持美元迎来多头走势，鉴于特朗普关税政策导致美元指数继续承压，结合鲍威尔的讲话内容，预计3月货币政策会议纪要上美联储或更显鹰派。尤其值得注意的一点，考虑到金融市场目前对通胀的敏感度，3monthCPI将成为将要公布的主要经济数据。如果其核心CPIContinuously rising2%以上，那么可以想象在其后的美联储会议纪要的态度肯定偏鹰了，此外，有关中美贸易战的消息仍是市场追踪的要点，一旦冲突加剧，黄金将继续成为“避险天堂”。


--Analysis of spot gold market--


大区间的震荡，在近期的表现当中非常明确，通常中间的位置布局很难受，操作一定是围绕高低点做整理，日线在连续几个交易日震荡后转阳，并且凌晨无回落，按照前一日上升的原则，第二日需要先多博连续形态，但当前并不能当极强去布局，主要原因在于日线单阳，这就意味着周初依然是震荡的概率较大，而操作思路较为明确，支撑阻力做区间即可。


判断震荡的三个方法：


1，价格呈现特定的区间，高低点不规则；


2，阴阳线频繁切换，并且连续性较差；


3，日内多空均衡，阴阳线数量基本相当。

当明白核心后，那么相当对布局变得极为简单，只需等待时间点以及形态的配合，今日支撑1325-1326，日内触及可以多，破1322做调仓，目标看1331-32一线，保守则等待测试支撑有效反抽后再去多；阻力1336一线，强阻力1340，直接反抽测试有效回落，亦可空，破1340损，目标回看1324-22附近，另外关注欧盘的表现，如欧盘高位运行，那么美盘前也可考虑直接轻仓空，看阴阳交替循环收阴节奏，这也是今日整体操作思路！


黄金在上周非农数据的刺激下，行情波动幅度非常大，对于做单不带止损的朋友来说，单子反了简直就是灾难，几乎一直在强调带好止损，不过重视听进去的人很少，希望能吃一堑长一智吧，对于套单的朋友，不要有压力，保持好心态，对于近期存在套单现象的问题，只要不爆仓，都存在机会解出来，只是需要注意的是如何去更大可能减少损失甚至盈利。


1、如果你是1335附近套了多单，建议等待今天行情反弹1335附近，可以进部分空单，减小仓位风险，多单止损1328。


2、如果下方低位空单被套点位较大，那就建议在1335附近加仓进空，如果有机会给到1326，可以顺势减仓，然后轻仓做多，具体操作可直接咨询笔者。

Yes, don't believe in the ending, it's just another beginning. There was a time when I always liked to imagine how much the price would drop, how many orders I would buy, and how much I would earn from the price increase. But it has been shattered by reality time and time again. Later, it was discovered that this unreality came from the confused area of technology. When it falls, ask for more; when it rises, ask for more; always thinking about the middle line, but never doing it. Why? The end of wave after wave of market trends, the beginning of each trend, is just a cycle, and fate has not changed. Many people view trading solely as technical, without considering many of their own details, resulting in a disastrous failure. Toothache is not a disease, but it can be excruciating. That's the truth. When not sick, eat and drink recklessly, and when sick, swear to stop talking. This is human nature. The same goes for transactions. When a set of orders appears, I swear that there will be no more sets of orders after this release. As a result, I forget the pain of the scar and will still get a set of orders next time. You can't pass the gates of hell, you can't drink the mesmerizing soup. Only when you go through and eliminate misunderstandings can your trading truly grow.


Author of this article: Shan Chenjin


Author's Message: A broad view and appointment, thick accumulation and thin hair!


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The above content is for reference only. Investment carries risks and caution is required when entering the market.