4.4小非农利空黄金反映平平，聚焦美联储大佬讲话

　　读万卷书不如行万里路，行万里路不如阅人无数，阅人无数不如名家指路，名家指路不如名家带路。大家好，我是李文财，愿我有机会为你照亮前行的道路，投资路艰辛，你我共斩荆，携手齐头进，共创辉煌命。

　　#Message surface#


Wednesday's announcement of the United States3monthADPIncreased employment data recorded24.1万人，高于预期的增加20.510000 people, previous value corrected to increase24.6万人。数据利空gold，但数据公布后黄金波动不大，小幅回撤至1342一线后上扬至1348.1一线，然后回落至1343一线附近，处于一个1342-1348的窄幅震荡。


　　值得注意的是，由于今日公布的ADP报告十分靓丽，市场对美联储加息的预期维持高位。据美联储观察工具Fedwatch，美联储今年6Monthly interest rate increase25Bps to1.75%-2%The probability of the interval is78.4%. Given thatADP数据和非农就业数据存在较强的正相关关系，交易员往往利用ADP报告来“校准”周五（4month6日）非农就业报告的预期。一旦周五大非农数据也是利空的话，黄金可能会再度跌至1320and even1308。


　　此外，市场今晚聚焦两位美联储风云人物的讲话，圣路易斯联储主席布拉德将于21:45就经济前景和货币政策发表讲话；2018年票委、克里兰夫联储主席梅斯特将在23:00就经济多样化发表讲话。梅尔斯特是公认的“大鹰派”人物，但上周却意外发表偏向鸽派的言论。


　　#黄金行情解析及策略#


　　一小时图显示，黄金虽然自布林带上轨回落，但布林带开口向上，MACDBilinear to0轴上方二次形成金叉，红柱动能放量，KDJandRSI指标走平，多头动能依旧偏强；四小时上看，上轨1346一线的压力位虽然被破，但是并未企稳，在1348一线承压回落，下方关注中轨1334一线的支撑以及昨日低点1328的支撑；日线布林带呈一个平行的走势，并未有明显的强弱提醒，目前还是收的一根大阳线。在周五大非农数据公布前黄金走一个震荡的概率较大。操作上依旧以低多操作为主，高空为辅。晚间以区间1350-1334操作，破位顺势跟进，回落1338-1336附近可多单进场，看向1348一线后可空单进场。策略仅供参考，具体进场点位以实盘为准。

　　#文财寄语#


When communicating with many investors, many of them said to me, "Teacher, I can actually feel that prices will move in the right direction, but my psychological quality is poor. I stepped out early, and I am afraid that profits will turn into losses.". Here's a question to ask:"If you knew that the price would really reach that point in the end, would you still come out early?"Wen Cai believes that you won't. You may even tolerate temporary large floating losses and not be eliminated early. Speaking of which, what Wen Cai wants to tell you is that you are not mentally ill, but rather that even the teacher who led you in the operation is unwilling to admit the fact that you did not predict that it would rise/The ability to fall to that tempting position! So don't make excuses for such regrets anymore. When your abilities can't support your ambitions, be humble and seek advice!


Author/Li Wenchai (official WeChat account:lwc540179821）