4.3避险重燃加股市萧条，黄金单边走涨20dollar

　　投资犹如下棋，棋艺高者能看出五步，七步甚至十几步，而棋艺低者只能看出两三步，高者顾大局，谋大势，不以一子一地为重，以最终赢棋为目标；低者则寸土必争，只为争一时之需，结果频频受困。趋势，一定要有长远眼光，投资，一定要有长远规划，而布局技巧是成功的关键。做投资，如果你的能力不足以支撑你现在的状况，那么你需要一位军师助你操控大局，一次选择，就是一次转折！一次尝试，就是一次机会！

　　#Message surface#


　　美国股市周一再遭重挫，创下大萧条以来四月的最差开局，三大stock market index收盘均刷新近两个月新低，道指盘中一度跌超700点，标普500指数两年来首次低于200天均线，纳斯达克跌幅已自其峰值已经下跌超过10%，正式进入修正区域，为2016year2月来首次。


　　而周一我国发布针对美国232措施的产品征税清单，对原产于美国的7class128项进口商品中止关税减让义务。这些报复性关税举措凸显出地缘政治紧张局势加剧，支撑gold的避险需求。


　　此外，受到关税威胁的影响，美国制造业对成本增加和供给受限感到担忧。美国3monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIFinal value recorded55.6，低于前值和预期的55.7；3monthISMmanufacturingPMIRecorded59.3，远不及前值和预期，帮助黄金和白银反弹。


　　文财个人观点：贸易战担忧重燃导致上周淡化的避险情绪加重，黄金昨日自开盘一路走涨，加上凌晨美股的暴跌，引发资本市场恐慌，大量资金流入黄金市场寻求避险，导致黄金昨日单边上涨近20USD, up to1344.8。今日单边上涨的可能性不大，预计早间会有一波小的回调后再上涨，操作上依旧以低多为主。

　　#黄金行情解析及策略#


　　周一行情没有延续上周的弱势，而是延续上周四1322-1321的多次探底企稳震荡反弹，目前黄金已经突破了1340一线的阻力，而且看势头，是还有继续上升的迹象的，就目前黄金短线指标来看，黄金小时图主图显示，K线目前是运行在布林带上轨一线附近，布林带张口也是在逐渐向外扩张的，在指标KDJ三线，目前三线是呈粘合运行状，三线是全部运行在超买区的，随时是有可能反转的，在观MACD双线指标，目前双线是呈金叉持续上扬的，红色动能柱也是在持续放量的。四小时线看，黄金收的六连阳，突破布林带上轨，布林带缩口有重新打开重新打开的迹象，KDJ三线呈粘合状态。综合来看，今日黄金还是有回踩迹象的，但目前是呈反弹的势头，早间文财建议可以尝试轻仓空单进场，但总体操作上还是以回调做多为主，上方关注1350一线的阻力，破位看上周高点1356frontline.


　　#文财寄语#


When communicating with many investors, many of them said to me, "Teacher, I can actually feel that prices will move in the right direction, but my psychological quality is poor. I stepped out early, and I am afraid that profits will turn into losses.". Here's a question to ask:"If you knew that the price would really reach that point in the end, would you still come out early?"Wen Cai believes that you won't. You may even tolerate temporary large floating losses and not be eliminated early. Speaking of which, what Wen Cai wants to tell you is that you are not mentally ill, but rather that even the teacher who led you in the operation is unwilling to admit the fact that you did not predict that it would rise/The ability to fall to that tempting position! So don't make excuses for such regrets anymore. When your abilities can't support your ambitions, be humble and seek advice!


Author/Li Wenchai (official WeChat account:lwc540179821）