3.26贸易战愈演愈烈，黄金多头势不可挡

　　人只有在经历过痛苦的时候才会醒悟，才知道失败的原因所在，这何尝不是一种经验，而经历过磨难才会使人成长，推动着一个人走向卓越，而在投资市场，没经历过止损，怎会知道止损的重要性，尊重市场，因为市场永远是对的，错的只是人心的解读，顺势而为永远没错，这才是长久的道路。

　　#Message surface analysis#


　　贸易战再次开启，白宫人事频繁变动，美股大跌gold多头趋势迅猛周五凌晨，特朗普要求贸易代表署办公室对500亿美元中国商品征收关税，并对中国对美科技投资加以限制，将在未来15天内公布对中国的关税措施；由于美国贸易紧张局势不断升级，周四“恐慌指数”CBOE波动性指数升至近三周高位至21.94，美国三大stock market index受冲击跌幅扩大。


　　另一方面虽然政府关门危机缓和，但白宫人事的频繁换动使得特朗普阵营失去稳定性，美元上涨趋势受打压，周四美市早盘，道指跌逾500点，势创2month8日以来最糟糕单日表现，标普500和纳指也大跌近2％，从而提振了金价。


　　文财个人观点：总体而言加息之后黄金多头趋势已经很明显，前面也提到过黄金加息过后必然上涨，随着美国进一步加息，其它各国可能会逐渐行动起来，紧跟加息步伐。长期来看，非美货币仍有上涨空间，这有利于金银上涨。虽说目前市场普遍看多加息后涨，但市场的二八定律永远存在，一旦黄金走单边上涨，那么必是有一波大回调，再继续涨，这是机构的盈利方式，不然都在赚钱谁在亏损？所以目前投资者需要把握的点就是如何在回调时不被做为炮灰，及时止盈出局才是最稳健的获利方式。


　　#黄金行情解析及下周策略#


　　本周黄金从4小时图来看，运行着一个低点抬升，高点创新高的多头走势，多头走势并没有发生改变，但是要注意的是目前黄金的乖离率过大，要谨防黄金的调整，目前黄金顶布林带上轨运行，短线黄金的多头走势依然很强，从指标来看，RSITurn the head upwards from a high position,Stoch指标高位有死叉迹象，指标显示黄金偏向调整，短线黄金冲击大波段1307reach1361of76.4%Location, i.e1350一线，短期关注此位置一线的压力，破位企稳后将会走强，不破黄金将可能迎来调整，当然目前黄金是顶着布林带上轨运行，此时做单我们就得小心。当然短线我们依然保持多头思路不变，同时也要做好提防，一旦黄金不在顶布林带上轨运行，黄金大概率会迎来调整，

　　综合分析：下周操作上以诚建议还是要沿着多头思路不变，回落以多为主，但是要注意的是短期强势拉升的结束，一旦结束将可能迎来调整，下周短线上方关注1350-1355Frontline suppression, following below1340and1335First line support position.


　　#文财寄语#


When communicating with many investors, many of them said to me, "Teacher, I can actually feel that prices will move in the right direction, but my psychological quality is poor. I stepped out early, and I am afraid that profits will turn into losses.". Here's a question to ask:"If you knew that the price would really reach that point in the end, would you still come out early?"Wen Cai believes that you won't. You may even tolerate temporary large floating losses and not be eliminated early. Speaking of which, what Wen Cai wants to tell you is that you are not mentally ill, but rather that even the teacher who led you in the operation is unwilling to admit the fact that you did not predict that it would rise/The ability to fall to that tempting position! So don't make excuses for such regrets anymore. When your abilities can't support your ambitions, be humble and seek advice!


Author/Li Wenchai (official WeChat account:lwc540179821）