余秋欣：学习过很多操作技巧，却依然做不好投资

[paragraph]前言：天下之势，变幻莫测，神鬼难料，只有知时识势，顺势而为，才能不被大势所抛弃，才不会有危险


1Wrong mainstream trend, operate against the trend.
This situation is the most terrifying among all losses, but it is also the best solution. This situation often occurs when a sharp mainstream trend emerges, but one falls short and dares not chase after the opportunity. Therefore, one keeps trying to rebound in the downward trend or make corrections in the upward trend, finding local tops and bottoms when the trend is very strong. Because the direction was wrong from the beginning, the trend had already been running for a period of time after being stopped, and the mentality was always unbalanced. I always felt that the trend was going to retrace or rebound, so I didn't have the courage to take advantage of it. Reverse operation naturally resulted in continuous losses.
When dealing with this situation, it is important not to resist the trend. You cannot die by continuously stopping losses, but if the trend accelerates, it will force you to cut above the sky high or floor price. After this situation occurs, you need to calmly judge the trend and re evaluate the large form of the trend, and see where the large target position of the trend on the weekly chart should go. It is necessary to combine the form with the large cycle here, to see how much space there should be in the next large time window based on the current trend rate, and whether the large wave form supports it to run there, and whether there are important supports or pressures present there. If the big target position is accurately determined through judgment, then abandon the idea of eating callbacks and rebounds in operation, patiently wait for callbacks or rebounds to enter, and use waves to judge whether there will be a significant adjustment in the current position.

2Chasing the rise and fall inside the large box, getting slapped back and forth.
This situation often occurs after a large trend has ended, such as when a large uptrend has come to an end, but no one knows in advance that it may experience a long period of oscillation and sideways movement. After a shallow pullback in the trend, it will immediately chase after the uptrend, but as soon as it turns around, it will break your stop loss. Moreover, if it continues to decline after breaking the stop loss, it will feel like the trend has turned, and immediately follow up with short selling, resulting in a stop loss. Once or twice is not a big deal, but a large consolidation band often hits people's mouths in a row, because at this time the trend chart is bullish like a pullback, bearish like a big top, so no one can have a firm view of the future. Without confidence in the trend, it will cause a headless fly to chase after the rise and fall, and be repeatedly washed away with losses.


3The trend of oscillating upward and downward, when both right and wrong are losing money
所有的振荡趋势如果你去操作不论是上升的还是下跌的，结局都是一样，因为振荡趋势之初大家都会把他们当反弹或者回调来看待，或者即使做对方向也会按正常趋势的做法设好止损和止赢，那结果就是即使看对趋势也被止损或者止赢。

总结一句话：看对了能大赚，看错了大亏，这才是一套完整稳定的体系。


--笔者寄语--
无视所有的预言。金钱的世界是一个以人的行为勾画出的世界。在金钱世界里，没有一个人对将来会有丝毫的概念。记住这个词的没有一个人。所以，成功的交易者不是把自己的行动建筑在什么是应该发生的上，而是对所发生的事而作出反应。


作者：余秋欣