Shan Chenjin:3.21加息能否迎来多头反攻？黄金日内走势分析

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Shan Chenjin:3.21加息能否迎来多头反攻？goldIntraday trend analysis
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Summary:因美联储加息忧虑发酵，加上欧元区和英国数据表现不佳欧元携手英镑跳水，美元获提振大幅上涨，金价失守1310关口。今日市场将首先迎来英国2月失业率、美国第四季度经常帐以及美国3月联邦基金利率目标上限等数据，投资者需重点关注。
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--International News Analysis--

欧元区及英国数据不佳非美货币跌势惨烈


Tuesday（3month20日）欧元区经济数据公布，3monthZEWEconomic prosperity index recorded13.4，远低于预期的28.1; Germany3monthZEWEconomic prosperity index recorded5.1，也远逊于预期的13。数据表现令市场失望，欧元因此短线下挫逾20点。值得注意的是，德国智库ZEW表示，以美国为主导的全球贸易冲突让德国投资者保持谨慎，欧元走强将损害德国经济前景。此外，随后公布的英国通胀数据也不尽人意。英国2monthCPIMonthly rate recorded0.4%, lower than expected0.5%, UK2monthCPI年率和核心CPI年率均不及预期。受此影响，英镑短线下挫30点，报收1.3996, with a decrease of0.16%。


美联储决议逼近“鹰派”忧虑助美元崛起


目前，市场目光聚焦于本周的美联储货币政策会议，市场普遍预计本周美联储将启动今年的首次加息。此外，市场还预计周三之后美联储在今年余下时间还将升息两次，不过如果大多数美联储决策官员在“点阵图”中预计今年总共升息四次，那么美元将上涨。周二美市盘中，美元持续反弹，进一步攀升至90关口上方，日内最高触及90.33USD.


单晨金小结：今天晚间除了需要关注美联储的加息点阵图预期之外，还要留意下3月份加息是加25个基准点还是50个基准点，如果是50个基准点，那么就算今年加息3次，黄金的上行前景也有限。综合近期美国经济及发展前景，我个人还是倾向加息3次，但正如周一的博文强调的一样，白宫近期高层变动是否会影响美联储高官的决议，因为如果有多数官员预计加息4次的话，那么黄金将会承压。另外贸易战还在升温中，中美贸易交涉依然没有足够的进展，在美联储加息压力下，“贸易战”忧虑引发的避险情绪或成金价最后的支撑。


--Analysis of spot gold market--


时间总是一分一秒的流失，期盼已久，反复炒作的美联储3月份加息时间也到了，就在今夜凌晨2Points.


1.尽管自1366Afterwards,1月份至今黄金走了2个月时间的高位洗盘整理行情。但是整体还是保持了加息之前的偏弱走势。而美元短线也迎来了反弹，似乎很符合加息前的行情走势。那么此次美联储是否会如期加息？而加息之后，对黄金行情的冲击和影响又会是怎样的？探底回升，直接见底反转还是续跌一段时间再做底企稳呢？


2.2个月的洗盘整理反复行情，从时间点上来说，前期多头走了1个月，涨幅130美金，而如今停顿修复了2个月时间。突破在即了，能否借助本次消息迎来突破呢。这都是我们今日操作中需要考虑的问题。


本周黄金依然保持着洗盘反复的节奏。周一亚欧盘延续了上周五尾盘的下破弱势，小幅刷新低点去了1308-1307附近，而后美盘二次下探不破新低尾盘和午夜迎来了反弹，日线纺锤阳。昨日亚欧盘高位整理，受阻1317-1318区域之后，欧美盘再度呈现单边震荡回落走势，尾盘小幅反弹日线纺锤阴。连续5个交易日黄金4阴1阳，整体还是保持了加息前的弱势震荡回落的主节奏。

对于此次加息行情，我个人的看法首先认为如市场预期如期加息大概率，当然如果真的不加息这个行情就好做了，黄金直接拉高，但是这样幅度预期也不会太大。而如果如期加息，对于后市的影响，我们做以下分析：


1.美元中期空头熊市明显，所以无论是否加息很难改变这一格局。也就是中长期来看黄金，黄金下方空间有限，易涨难跌。幅度小1300，幅度就是大加息之后不能反转我个人看1280-1275是极限。


2.gold2个月的洗盘整理突破时间节点在即。


3.结合近4年的前面5次加息行情走法来看，4次加息之后黄金直接见底反转，迎来一波多头趋势，而只有一次是续跌1-2周之后迎来反弹。所以此次如果真的加息，反转迎来多头大概率。


4.structureETF近期不断加仓黄金，白银，也可见对后市持有乐观态度。


所以我个人的看法，此次消息面冲击行情，黄金大概率探底回升走势。白盘预期波幅不大，关注小幅反弹力度，上方注意1312-1315压力，而后午夜如果数据出来探底回升的话，那么我们关注1303-1302的位置考虑尝试波段，中线多。

I simply tidied up the flowers, but after two days without taking care of them, the stamens fell onto the leaves, staining and rotting. This is also the difficulty of growing lilies, as every time they bloom slightly, they need to pluck out the stamens. A small measure can make lilies bloom for an extra week. Trading also requires meticulous care, and a slight lack of attention can lead to difficulties in trading. I often think about a problem: logical reasoning. Although it is a simple long short, many people never consider the reasons. Just like loving flowers, but not knowing how to cultivate them, wherever they are placed, they are easily withered. Trading itself is prediction, which is to lay out when it hasn't happened yet. But the result for many people is that they only consider going long when they see an increase, and only consider going short when they see a decrease. Often, when the market is fluctuating, there is no continuity. Managing flowers and plants is like managing an account, you need to be careful and willing. Although the decoration of pink stamens is beautiful, it affects the lifespan. Don't let carelessness cause any problems with your account. Being vigilant, managing, and caring at all times is the key to being a good investor.


Author of this article: Shan Chenjin


Author's Message: A broad view and appointment, thick accumulation and thin hair!


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The above content is for reference only. Investment carries risks and caution is required when entering the market.