NFX 品汇国际：美元冲高回落目前多空谨慎

Market Review
　　在周二的foreign exchange市场上，美元呈反弹后大幅下跌的走势，美元指数最高上涨到90.12, 最低下跌到89.59, closing at89.66。欧美最高上涨到1.24070，最低下跌到1.23150, closing at1.23980。
　　备受瞩目的CPI数据如期出炉，数据符合预期，美元冲高回落。但日内令人震惊的是，美国总统特朗普解除了国务卿蒂勒森的职务。美元跌势加剧，刷新日低至89.59。 U.S.A2月通胀报告并无令人意外之处，显然市场已将经济数据的强劲一面计价在内，但数据公布后美元仍承受下行压力，部分原因可能为实际平均周薪涨幅下滑。
　　美国劳工部最新数据显示，美国2monthCPIMonthly rate growth0.2%，2monthCPIAnnual rate recorded2.2%；2Monthly CoreCPIMonthly rate recorded0.2%，2Monthly CoreCPIThe annual rate is1.8%，均符合市场预期。彭博称，数据表明通货膨胀率正在逐步上升，但没有出现速度加快的现象。这符合政策制定者对物价上涨前景的预期，以及美联储官员对今年三次加息的预期。CPI数据没有出现加速的迹象，也有利于安抚市场情绪，此前2月份的美国时薪数据，曾让股市遭遇抛售潮。联邦基金利率futures暗示，交易员现预计美联储2018Annual interest rate hike4次的概率为26%，CPI数据前为28%。
　　《华盛顿邮报》爆料称，特朗普解除蒂勒森国务卿职务。几分钟之后，特朗普就在推特上称，现任中情局局长蓬佩奥将接任国务卿职务。据金融博客Zerohedge称，前美国国务卿蒂勒森在上周五晚接到了白宫幕僚长凯利电话，后者就前者的任职未来给出了提示。凯利告知蒂勒森将被取代，但未说明具体时点。据外媒早前报道，在过去的一年多时间中，蒂勒森的国务卿职位遭到边缘化。他与特朗普在一系列重大问题上有过争执，如伊朗核协议、与朝鲜的对抗以及阿拉伯国家盟友的冲突等。
        从技术上来看,美指周二反弹受阻在90.15之下，下跌到89.55之上受到brace, closing at89.66,意味着美元短线有可能反弹后保持回落的走势。如果美指今天反弹到90.00If there is resistance below, the target for future decline will be directed towards89.45—89.25。美指若有效跌破89.60，后市下跌的目标将会指向89.40even to the extent that89.25。美指在没有跌破89.00之前，反弹行情随时都会出现。
[Trading Strategy]
US dollar index: can be found in90.00—89.30Sell at the upper limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit30Point stop loss, with the target at the lower limit of the range.
Euro/USD: can be used in1.24600---1.23400Buying at the lower limit of the range, effectively breaking through400Point stop loss, the target is at the upper limit of the range.
GBP/USD: can be used in1.40600---1.39000Buying at the lower limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit400Point stop loss, the target is at the upper limit of the range.
USD/Ruilang: You can find0.94800---0.93900Sell at the upper limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit400Stop loss at one point, with the target at the lower limit of the range.
USD/Japanese yen: can be used in106.900---105.700Sell at the upper limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit400Stop loss at one point, with the target at the lower limit of the range.
AUD/USD: can be used in0.79000---0.78200Sell at the upper limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit300Point stop loss, with the target at the lower limit of the range.
USD/CAD: Can be used in1.30700---1.29000Buying at the lower limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit400Stop loss at a single point, with the target at the upper limit of the range.
　　gold: Can be found in the1337.00—1318.00Buying at the lower limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit5美元止损，目标在区间的上限。
　　白银：可以在16.700—16.350Sell at the upper limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit0.150USD stop loss, targeting the lower limit of the range.
Today's Key Financial Data and Events
① 07:50 Bank of Japan Announces1month22-23日货币政策会议纪要
② 15:00 Germany2monthCPIMonthly rate final value
③ 16:00 欧洲央行行长德拉基在欧洲央行观察家会议上发表讲话
④ 18:00 欧元区第四季度季调后就业人数季率、欧元区1Monthly industrial output rate
⑤ 20:30 U.S.A2Monthly retail sales rate, US2monthPPIMonthly rate
⑥ 22:00 U.S.A1Monthly commercial inventory rate
⑦ 22:30 From the United States to3month9Day and WeekEIAcrude oilstock
⑧ undetermined OPEC releases monthly crude oil market report