Li Tongjin:3.14加息临近黄金不跌反涨，真的开始触底反弹了吗？

　　=====加息对goldWhat is the impact?=====

　　加息意味着美国经济运行态势良好，美元上涨可期，这将吸引更多资金流向美元。而作为与美元同属避险资产的投资品，流入黄金市场的资金势必将减少，从而导致黄金价格承压下跌。然而，从短期来看，加息对黄金是有所打压的，也就是说，加息政策预期升温，或者直接实施，都将导致金价走势下行压力加大。众所周期，美元于黄金走势呈对立，美元获得提振的话，也将对黄金产生打压。但是，从更长的时间跨度来看，加息政策落地之后，黄金价格则未必承压。

　　=====近三年加息前后黄金的走势情况=====

　　2015year12month17The Federal Reserve of Japan and the United States has raised interest rates for the first time. Prior to the rate hike, the market was heavily bearish due to the impact of expected rate hikes, resulting in the lowest decline in gold prices1046After confirming the interest rate hike, gold1046Seeing the bottom, gold finally surged to1378The position of the US dollar has risen sharply330Surplus US dollars!

　　2016year12month15The second interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve of Japan and the United States, influenced by expectations of rate hikes before the hike1330A sharp drop above the point200Surplus US dollars, minimum to1125frontline. After the confirmation of interest rate hikes, gold bulls experienced a surge, the highest impact1270The region is experiencing a significant increase150dollar!

　　2017year3month16The Federal Reserve of Japan and the United States has raised interest rates for the third time. Prior to the rate hike, gold was affected by expectations of a rate hike1270Down below, lowest drop1195Region; After the Federal Reserve confirmed the interest rate hike, gold experienced an upward trend, albeit with twists and turns, but with the highest surge impact1300At the checkpoint, the increase is close to110dollar!

　　2017year6month15The fourth interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve of Japan and the United States, with gold under pressure due to expectations of rate hikes before the hike1300Gateway, daily line formation1296Double peak decline, gold surges and falls to its lowest point after confirming interest rate hike1204The region has reached a bottom, with the highest increase1357Region, with an increase of150Surplus US dollars!

　　2017year12month14The fifth interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve of Japan and the United States, influenced by the expected increase in market conditions before the hike, has led to a decline in market trends12At the beginning of the month1299Exploring all the way down nearby1236.6Nearby, in just over ten days, the market has plummeted like a bamboo; Subsequently, after the Federal Reserve confirmed the interest rate hike, the market surged all the way to1366Nearby, the increase has reached133Around US dollars!

　　=====黄金技术分析及走势预测=====

　　黄金日线图来看，昨日日线再次收出探底阳线，短线黄金多次测试下方强支撑1313一线，也就是日线的盘整带底部的实体部分的一线的支撑，多次测试不破，短线支撑力度依然强势，在没有日线实体真正破位前要继续保持区间震荡的思路不变。

　　4小时线上早间金价虚破布林带中轨后出现下行下方支撑看到前期反弹点1318附近。昨晚黄金在CPI数据的影响下探底回升，并且一举拿下1325的阻力，从四小时图上来看，黄金价格自四小时图的BOLL通道下轨上涨至上轨附近后慢慢回落，不过并没有影响BOLL通道的收窄。

　　综合来看：今日操作上建议高空为主，上方关注1328-1330一线的阻力，不破轻仓空，下方看1320Nearby, break through and hold.

　　=====昨晚追的空单今天怎么办？=====

　　黄金强势调整，整体趋势偏多头延续，那么关于套单的单子我们也需要转变一下解套的思路，金价破1325关口，下一步阻力位置关注1328/1330美元位置；而随着金价反弹，下方套的空单问题会比较大，那么建议是回调到1320下方逐渐减仓，反手布局多单，用多单的利润去弥补亏损。

　　市场并不会简单的朝着预期的方向进行，通往成功的路都是曲折的，而一旦走反，则将会失去方向，进入了死循环，行情也同样如此，趋势是一定的，但是绝对不会简单地朝着预定方向一直走，期间会出来曲折而动摇人的内心，这时候就需要好的心态来面对，不受短线的走势所影响，这就是前期我们一直坚定布局波段，都是成功获利的原因，守得初心，放的始终，投资市场需要定力，需要持之以恒的决心，然后在金市去收获利润！思路决定出路。翻仓解套更多资讯可以关注笔者公眾號李通金！

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