上周初因美联储新任主席鲍威尔的证词偏鹰派,表达了对美国经济的乐观看法,为今年四次、每次25个基点的加息打开了大门。去年12月份美联储官员曾预计今年加息三次,鲍威尔中的证词暗示,他们的预期仍然是三次,只不过是至少三次,如果经济动能增强,可能考虑第四次加息。而随着通胀升温,市场也正在逐渐适应今年美联储加息四次的可能性。受加息预期影响美元反弹,黄金遭到打压,且技术承压1340,双重压力下,黄金如预期回踩至1300附近,后半周受特朗普关于贸易战的言论刺激以及避险情绪的影响,黄金震荡回升,但最终难改周线受阴线的结局。因此金通道赢建议大家近期多操作空单,多单少做,这个过程至少要持续到美联储3month22日加息会议之后。
周线结构上,因为上周收线带有下长影线,所以20周线1300的支撑作用得到加强,但尚且不能意味着就此反转回升,周线级别整体格局还是偏震荡的,毕竟行情目前还承压在5、10周线下方。本周重点关注上方1330压力争夺,即便突破,上方1340依旧会构成强势压制。日K线出现锤子线反转信号,但还需一根阳线才能予以确认,如果金价能够收盘于10Daily moving average1326.34上方,则金价有望重拾涨势,进一步阻力在布林线中轨1332.14附近。不过,由于MACD死叉信号仍在,金价目前仍受到均线的明显压制,若依日线形态结构,未来中短线不排除再回踩1300, and even1290附近的可能,所以中线级别角度来看,行情回踩一次1300-1290后再选择回升反弹对于中线趋势的发展以及操作上会更有利一些。所以综合来看,上方重点关注1327-1330Frontline resistance level, pay attention below1315-1316一线支撑位,操作上区间而行,高抛低吸!黄金投资技术一对一免费指导 V-Your words:jt827827/a dedicated lineQQ:1072543869
日内操作策略:可以选择在1327-30Frontline entry empty orders, stop loss1333Look at the target below1321-1318;下方做多可以等首次试探1316-18一线考虑,止损1313On the target1323-25一线;下破1314,可以等反弹18附近离场多单,反手轻仓做空,止损1322Look at the target below1308-10,破位继续下看。注:上方若强势破位1330,延续到1331上方,建议稍微回调可以考虑出掉部分空单,选择观望等待。
基本面方面,本周将迎来一个极度繁忙的超级周,周初意大利大选将搅动市场,随后将迎来澳洲联储决议、黑田连任提名听证会、加银决议、欧银决议、日银决议等一系列重磅事件;同时还将迎来非农报告。众多重磅事件、数据齐聚,黄金走势料将会受到不同程度的影响,所以本周黄金重点要以基本面为主要参考。
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