Shan Chenjin:3.1美货币报告公布在即，黄金日内走势分析

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Shan Chenjin:3.1美货币报告公布在即，goldIntraday trend analysis


Summary:周三因市场尚未消化鲍威尔国会证词上发表的讲话，现货黄金亚欧盘中走势一度低迷。美盘时段，价值7亿美元的买盘突至，金价获提振小幅上行，但随后受美元再创新高影响，金价回落继续走低，最终报收1318USD.
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--International News Analysis--

数据符合预期美元创逾一个月新高


Wednesday（2month28Day)21:30公布的美国第四季度实际GDPRecorded quarterly annualized rate correction value2.5%，符合预期，前值下修为2.3%。美国第四季度实际个人消费支出季率修正值为3.8%Higher than expected3.6%, previous value is3.8%。第四季度核心PCE物价指数年率修正值为1.9%，符合预期和前值的1.9%。数据公布后，美元小幅走高，美盘时段最高上探至90.70dollar/盎司，刷新自1month23日以来的高点，现货黄金则承压短线下跌。


货币报告公布在即鲍威尔恐再唱“鹰”歌


Tuesday（2month27日）晚间美联储主席鲍威尔的国会作证令市场动荡剧烈。他在证词中的言论，点燃了市场对于美联储今年将加息四次的预期，目前投资者尚未完全消化他此前的讲话。今晚23:00，鲍威尔还将在美国参议院银行业委员会作半年度货币政策报告，市场预期鲍威尔可能继续抛出鹰派言论。


单晨金小结：黄金在昨日早些时候温和走高，因为一些市场参与者使用近期价格暴跌作为买入机会。作为加息来说，在某种因素来解释，加息是双重麻烦，因为他们以美元计算使黄金更为昂贵，并提供替代的有息资产。而今晚的的货币报告，如果鲍威尔保持之前的鹰派基调，将继续提振美元打击黄金；反之，黄金可能获得片刻喘息。我个人的观点倾向于偏鹰基调，无论是从国会证词和昨晚的经济数据来看，都能够验证美经济能够保持稳定增长，同时这也部分验证了鲍威尔相信美国经济能够稳定增长的发言。具体关注单晨金唯訫scj366Timely understanding of market information, grasping the overall trend, and helping you make steady profits.


--Analysis of spot gold market--


美元也在2月份结束了前期极弱的空头熊市行情，陷入了低位88-90附近的箱体整理，短期迎来反弹，2月份月线收阳。黄金也在2月份跨越了中国农历春节，也走了我们提到的前期1236-1366多头趋势停顿，但是回撤形成大空头也比较困难。两者情况下走了1360-1308的日线大区间整理。整个2月的行情结构图是1350-1307的阴阳交替震荡回落，而后探底1307低位整理之后连阳反弹上攻1362，随后又是直接做顶连阴回落到1321，而从上周四开始到目前又是1341-1314的阴阳交替震荡回落行情。


that3月份的行情，黄金能否继续维持日线大区间1360-1308的整理，还是下破展开更大幅度的回撤值得关注。而美元2月份的反弹到底是一根空头趋势中的调整阳线，3月份整理之后继续回归空头，还是持续反弹同样需要观察。而且3月进入到下旬还有美联储2018年首次加息的可能。

当下行情的主节奏是清晰的，延续前面1362的冲高震荡回落，维持日线大区间1360-1308的区间整理行情。只是前面连阳反弹，连阴回落，而最近走的是反复的日线阴阳交替式的震荡回落行情。


周一早盘急涨，欧盘高位整理美盘回落纺锤阳；周二亚欧盘窄幅整理，美盘鲍威尔讲话放量下跌大阴线；周三2月份收尾1322-1316窄幅整理十字星。那么今日看震荡回落，继续测试1310-1308区域的可能性较大。而短期能否守住此位非常关键，守住日线继续1360-1308的大区间整理，跌破进一步加大回撤。


单晨金综合来看：黄金昨日波动可谓抗跌明显，一方面来源于超卖，一方面来源避险，欧洲的政治风险及美股暴跌都是使投资者进入黄金资产避险，因为美元昨日创新高黄金并没有跌多少。当下依然以4小时结构作为技术分析要点，短线趋势依旧偏空运行。今日操作参考1319-1320可空，只要不破1322-1324压力都保持日内继续看震荡回落收阴大概率，而触及1310-1308区域是否有短多机会，或者能否守住需要观察决定。具体关注单晨金唯訫scj366Timely understanding of market information, grasping the overall trend, and helping you make steady profits.


--Suggestions for spot gold operation--


1319-1320可空，破1324止损，目标先看1310-1309


要想长期稳定盈利这些技巧你要知道


1、 Set take profit and stop loss.


Investors should set take profit and stop loss levels before entering the market, which can avoid reducing losses in the event of significant market fluctuations. You can combine the stop loss position with the operation period. Usually set below the support point and above the resistance point, the stop loss level generally does not exceed the total funds5%。


2、 Take advantage of the situation.


投资市场一般都是有规律可循的，交易员按照市场行情做单，并且有一定的分析与计划，在操作的过程中要以不必那应万变。切忌固执己见，一旦发现行情在自己的预料之外，就需要毫不犹豫的离场。


3、 Control mindset.


It is precisely in the current market situation that investors' mentality may undergo significant changes. Some investors may want to become rich overnight, but ultimately fail. If there is a mistake in continuous trading, stop trading. After the depressed mood gradually subsides, carefully analyze the market and try to enter with a light position. When feeling lucky, you can increase your position at the right time.


4、 Manage positions.


Reasonable control of positions is also a compulsory course for investors. During the trading process, investors adjust their funds and positions according to a fixed ratio in order to prevent liquidation and obtain stable profit opportunities.

Investment is a long-term thing, and only by approaching it with a learning mindset can you go further and further down the investment path. If you are a retail investor, you may want to communicate with Dan Chenjin. Adding an analyst friend will not cause any losses to you, on the contrary, it will be of great help to you. If you think your teacher is very professional, don't blindly pursue making orders. You may want to ask him more for technical and trading skills, market judgment, and I believe your teacher will be happy to teach you. Moreover, if you communicate with me, I will be happy to help you. If you are a friend who is losing money on the road of investment or has recently had a situation of hedging, within my ability, I will help you solve the situation and develop a profit plan that suits you.


Author of this article: Shan Chenjin


Author's Message: A broad view and appointment, thick accumulation and thin hair!


σ-σ：330-5379-776V-Letter:scj366


The above content is for reference only. Investment carries risks and caution is required when entering the market.