总结黄金暴跌的原因,一方面,周二鲍威尔的讲话偏鹰派,导致美元指数强势反弹重回90大关,打压黄金价格短线走低重挫近20美金。鲍威尔证词发布后,美联储利率futuresdisplay3The probability of a monthly interest rate hike is97%。有交易商预计今年将有四次加息的机会。另一方面,纽约COMEXThe most active gold futures contract is in Beijing time23:44-23:47The trading volume within four minutes is10738The total value of trading contracts exceeds14亿美元。机构巨量资金进入控盘,巨大的抛售压力打压黄金下跌。之前金通在文章中就分析过,只要鲍威尔在讲话中提到3月加息,那么黄金必然会大跌,目前,美联储基金期货在今年年底前几乎有三次加息。在此背景下,今天周四晚上十一点鲍威尔在美国参议院银行业委员会作半年度货币政策报告也将再次引起市场关注。
对黄金多头来说,美元持续走强也将是坏消息,因为黄金与美元呈逆相关性。尽管美元一直徘徊在2014年以来的最低水平,但自本月中旬以来的反弹已创建双底,这是技术分析中的关键逆转模式。大多数情况下,这些模式无效,但以美元指数为例,这一潜在双底已在长期支撑88.50附近形成,这一水平在2008Year2009Year2010Year and2014年都曾充当阻力,后来突破上涨。因此,如果我们在这里得到确认,美元确实已经触底,那么这对黄金来说应该是一个坏消息。黄金投资技术一对一免费指导 V-Your words:jt827827/a dedicated lineQQ:1072543869
技术形态上来看,日线级别原油高位形成看跌吞没形态下行,走势上空头当前较为占优势,但日线级别布林带整体周期上还是向上开口运行,短线不宜过分去看空下跌,当前日线级别重点需要关注布林带中下轨一线的支撑作用,若形成有效下破的话则后市看其测试日线布林带下轨支撑,4小时级别上波浪结构较为明显,当前触及前期趋势线支撑位置,短线上关注这里能否形成有效破位,若形成有效破位的话后市需逢高沽空为主,若不能形成有效破位则短线上选择低吸看新高即可,由于昨日晚间公布了EIA数据,从昨日早间的API来看,昨日晚间的EIA数据预计也是小利多,但是具体行情后续怎么发展还有待考究。当前原油操作阻力位在63.00,下方支撑位在60.70Near.
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