Shan Chenjin:2.27黄金晚间走势深度剖析，助你提前把握行情

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Shan Chenjin:2.27gold晚间走势深度剖析，助你提前把握行情
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黄金昨日早盘探底1326，强势拉高1340-1341之后，欧盘陷入高位整理，美盘回落测试1332-1331关键支撑，日线收上影线纺锤阳。今日黄金早盘再度小幅走高去1336.8附近，看似隔夜的1332-1330未能有效下破，行情短线表现强劲。但是早盘冲高无果之后，欧盘再度陷入震荡回落，回撤1332-1331支撑。日内白盘表现4-5美金整理行情。市场聚焦美联储新任主席鲍威尔的今晚首秀。北京时间周二(2month27day)21:30，美国方面将公布美联储主席鲍威尔的半年度货币政策报告23:00，鲍威尔将首次以美联储主席的身份在美国众议院金融服务委员会作证。

具体对黄金市场的影响和表现：日内行情陷入窄幅整理，晚上重点看美联储注意鲍威尔的言论，必将引起必将大的波动。市场对鲍威尔本人的看法：在鲍威尔的领导下，美联储可能比耶伦时期更为鹰派。去年12月，在鲍威尔获得提名后，独特的宏观经济环境发生了变化，考虑到经济更快增长和扩张性财政政策下，鲍威尔必须采取的行动。所以鲍威尔在国会上若是发表了偏鹰派的观点，对黄金后市至少短期来说将是一场大的考验，这样才能确立2018年继续不断加息的步伐，当然从长期来考虑并不影响美元的熊市和金银的震荡偏多形态。


那么鲍威尔发言究竟对黄金会产生何种影响？若鲍威尔措辞偏向于谨慎，希望等待更多有关于薪资的数据、税改及财政刺激的影响，这将被市场理解为鸽派信号，美元料将下跌，黄金料获得更多的提振，继续震荡反弹。相反，若鲍威尔对经济前景表达乐观情绪，认为薪资、通胀将进一步回升，市场有可能开始对2018年加息四次进行计价，美元料将上涨，短期黄金将承压继续回落。


技术面上整个日内都是盘整在1333附近，那么相对于这种形态来说，昨日是冲高回落，今日出现低位盘整，并且受压于昨日高点下方，多少有偏空美的形态，但较为好的一点就是没有击穿昨日凌晨的低点，一旦1330失守，就必然是一种偏空的趋势。当前来说，我们可以通过两个细节来判断强弱：第一，小时线形态在整个欧盘呈现连阴模式，并且单阳；第二，四小时日内两阳以后没有反抽的力度，同时转阴，这种信号可以判断出晚间向下的概率还是偏大的。但是注意往往在横盘行情当中，选择开仓的时候不能等待反弹去空或者破位去多，这都是不合理的，只能是依托现价去进一步操作。


综合来看就是晚间从技术面来看回落的概率比较大，但是从消息面来看，我当前还没有把握他的一个风险走势，因为晚间的消息影响将会很大，这个在早间博文当中就强调了，同时由于节后金价的走势还没有到我们的规律范围之内，节奏的把握还不到位，所以在操作上建议激进的可以去1333Near empty, stop loss1338Look at the target below1325一线，保守的晚间就不要再做参与，早点休息。


Understanding of Shan Chenjin Trading-Reasons for losses in gold speculation


Personally, I believe that gold investment is a good investment product. Firstly, it has flexibility in trading, secondly, the stability of gold, and thirdly, the factors that affect gold are easier to analyze. Gold has been the main carrier of investment and wealth management since ancient times, but currently, domestic gold investors still suffer more losses and less profits. Why? Some people blame the platform, others blame the market, and say some personal opinions


1Lack of understanding of relevant knowledge. I heard that there is a great profit opportunity in this market, and if the broker deceives me again, I rashly enter the market without learning relevant knowledge, and even the trading rules and software usage are not clear. If you want to do a good job, you must first sharpen your tools. Even if you don't understand the resources in your hands, it's difficult to think of losing.


2I have learned relevant knowledge, especially technical analysis, and have a mixed understanding of various indicators and graphics. However, I am not proficient in them, and I am not familiar with them. When making orders, I have a confused mindset.


3Do not have their own trading strategy. The entry position is not suitable, which is not conducive to hanging a stop loss or not hanging a stop loss. A sharp rise and fall in the market is like chasing orders, and the result is always chasing the end of the market. There is no accurate positioning of profit margin before placing an order, and unexpected market conditions can be caught off guard.


4Blindly superstitious about brokers. The relationship between brokers and investors depends on trading volume, so some brokers encourage investors to place more orders, while some brokers have lower levels of proficiency.


5Attitude. Learning to hold coins and wait, being nervous when losing and also nervous when making profits, striving to find favorable factors for oneself through one's own analysis and the opinions of others, and so on.

我们不是外科大夫，但做着外科大夫的事。有时候的预测，就如手术刀一样准，有时候，手抖也会碰到心脏。强势中，你既不要担心阴线的出现，也不要害怕什么涨太多。有人说：涨这么多了，还能涨吗，其实很简单，你不相信要涨，行情就一直涨，有一天你不想做空了，认为自己错了该掉头多，那么行情自然会到头。这就是心里的零界点。当你内心无法承受的时候往往击垮你，也就是到头日。这就是为什么很多投资者一直空，行情一直涨，有一天做多了，却跌了。


Author of this article: Shan Chenjin


Author's Message: A broad view and appointment, thick accumulation and thin hair!


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The above content is for reference only. Investment carries risks and caution is required when entering the market.