Crossing the Sea 2018year2month21day

Crossing the Sea

2018

year

2

month

2

1

day

Focus this week:
2month21day(Wednesday)
Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Market Index
Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Refinancing Index
U.S.A2monthMarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value
U.S.A2monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value
U.S.A2monthMarkitService industryPMIinitial value
U.S.A1Monthly Housing Sales

2month22day(Thursday)
Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
Number of Americans reapplying for unemployment benefits
U.S.A1Monthly leading indicator monthly rate



Important economic data released today:  
17：00eurozone2monthMarkitManufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)initial value‧forecast59.3‧Previous value59.6
17：00eurozone2monthMarkitCIPS services PMI (PMI)initial value‧forecast57.6‧Previous value58.0
17：00eurozone2monthMarkitComprehensive Purchasing Manager Index(PMI)initial value‧forecast58.5‧Previous value58.8
17：30britain1月请领失业金人数变动‧Forecast increase0.41ten thousand people‧Previous value increase0.86ten thousand people
17：30英国截止12月三个月按国际劳工组织(ILO)Standard calculated unemployment rate‧forecast4.3%‧Previous value4.3%
17：30英国平均每周薪资所得年率‧forecast2.5%‧Previous value2.5%
17：30Average weekly salary income in the UK(不包括奖金)the annual rate‧forecast2.4%‧Previous value2.4%
17：30britain1Monthly net borrowing from public sector(PSNB)‧forecast-111.00Billion‧Previous value9.79Billion
17：30britain1Shortfall in monthly public sector revenue and expenditure(PSNCR)‧Previous value251.3Billion
20：00Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Market Index‧Previous value399.4
20：00Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Refinancing Index‧Previous value1,274.0
22：45U.S.A2monthMarkitComprehensive Purchasing Manager Index(PMI)initial value‧Previous value53.8
22：45U.S.A2monthMarkitManufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)initial value‧forecast55.4‧Previous value55.5
22：45U.S.A2monthMarkitCIPS services PMI (PMI)initial value‧forecast54.0‧Previous value53.3
23：00U.S.A1Annual sales rate of monthly completed houses‧forecast56010000 households‧Previous value55710000 households
23：00U.S.A1月成屋销售月率‧forecast0.9%‧Previous value-3.6%



2month20day
LondongoldMorning order price:1337.40
London gold afternoon fixing price:1339.85



Today's Introduction
美国短期借款成本升至2008The highest level since the beginning of the year

美国政府的部分短期借款成本周二升至九年多高位，财政部当天发行1,790亿美元公债，为政府支出和偿债融资。周二标债规模占本周总计2,580亿美元巨量公债供应的一大半，本周公债供应料将为政府筹集近480亿美元新资金。关于联邦借款成本料将增加的担忧已在升温，因去年底批准的重大税改法案估计将使政府债务增加多达1.5Trillion US dollars.



XAU London Gold -美债收益率上涨支撑美元

金价周三延续跌势，因美国公债收益率上涨令美元保持强劲，投资者也在等待美国联邦储备理事会(FED)公布最近一次会议的记录，以期获得有关今年升息步伐的线索。美联储将于周三公布1month30-31日政策会议记录。该次会议召开之际正值上月股市大跌，投资者希望通过会议记录一窥联储对市场动荡以及利率前景的反应。美国公债收益率隔夜上涨，指标10年期公债收益率徘徊在四年峰值附近，因投资者为本周总计2,580亿美元巨量公债供应预留空间。美国政府的部分短期借款成本周二升至九年多高位，财政部当天发行1,790亿美元公债，为政府支出和偿债融资。

日线图所见，向上阻力预估为1336and1353美元，进一步将参考2016year7Monthly high1374.90美元。若果以2011Annual high1920.03美元的累计跌幅计算，38.2%的技术反弹水平将会看至1380美元。之后较重要阻力料会直指1400美元关口。至于下方支持会回看1319and1313美元，关键则料为1293Horizontal.

London Gold2018year2month21day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1319 –1336
Resistance level:1353–1364
Support bit:1313–1293

SPDR GoldTrustGold holdings:
2month1Day -841.35ton
2month5Day -841.35ton
2month6Day -829.27ton
2month7Day -826.90ton
2month8Day -826.31ton
2month9Day -820.71ton
2month12Day -820.71ton
2month13Day -823.66ton
2month14Day -823.66ton
2month19Day -824.54ton
2month20Day -827.79ton

2Monthly goldfuturesDue date:2month26day
2Monthly goldoptionDue date:1month25day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Data source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2018year2month)

Global:33790.8ton
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3373.6ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2436.0ton
China(6)：1842.6ton
Russia(7)：1838.8ton
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(93)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver -银价窄幅盘整

技术图表所见，向上先探25Balance moving average16.85美元。若以最近一轮的跌幅计算，61.8%的反弹水平看至17.13美元。预估关键阻力将为250Weekly moving average17.76美元。下方支持区域估计在16.00-16.20美元；较大支撑料为15.70USD.

London Silver2018year2month21day
Predicting early wave amplitude:16.20–16.60
Resistance level:16.90–17.20
Support bit:15.90–15.70

iSharesSilver TrustSilver holdings:
2month1Day - 9736.88ton
2month5Day - 9767.91ton
2month6Day - 9767.91ton
2month7Day - 9767.91ton
2month8Day - 9767.91ton
2month9Day - 9767.91ton
2month12Day - 9767.91ton
2month13Day - 9767.91ton
2month14Day - 9767.91ton
2month19Day - 9767.91ton
2month20Day - 9767.91ton



EUR euro -聚焦美联储会议记录

美元周三上涨，近期关注焦点转向美国联邦储备理事会(FED)上次政策会议的记录，以期从中寻获有关将来美国货币政策收紧步伐的线索。美元指数逼近90关口，进一步脱离上周五所及三年低点88.251。欧元兑美元跌近1.23关口，已从上周五所及三年高位1.2556回落。周三稍晚，投资者焦点将转向美联储1月底会议的会议纪录。如果会议记录基调偏鹰派，市场将消化美国升息速度将加快的可能性，从而提振美元进一步上涨。市场人士亦关注本周美国政府大规模发债，以便从中了解国际投资者对美国资产的兴趣。美国政府部分短期借款成本周二升至九年多高位，财政部当天发行1,790亿美元公债， 为政府支出和偿债融资。

技术走势而言，相对强弱指标及随机指数现呈回落，料欧元兑美元短线续有回吐压力，上方阻力先看1.2540to1.2560区域，此区在近两个月以来多次限制了欧元进一步涨幅，而刚于上周亦上试不果，令技术面转而趋弱。以去年10月至今的累计涨幅计算，38.2%and50%的调整水平为1.2175and1.2055Expand to61.8%Then it is1.1940。此外，今年初低位1.1914亦为一重要参考。至于较大阻力则预估为1.2650and1.28Horizontal.

Focus:
2month21day(three): France2monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value‧MarkitService industryPMIinitial value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value‧
Germany2monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value‧MarkitService industryPMIinitial value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value‧
eurozone2monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value‧MarkitService industryPMIinitial value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value
2month22day(four): France2Monthly Business Prosperity Index‧France1monthHICPFinal value‧Germany2monthIfoBusiness Prosperity Index‧IfoBusiness Status Index‧IfoBusiness Expectation Index‧Italy12Monthly industrial orders‧Industrial sales‧Italy1monthCPIFinal value‧HICPFinal value
2month23day(five)：德国第四季GDP修订‧eurozone1monthHICPFinal value‧Deducting food and energy expensesHICPFinal value

Related news
Germany1monthPPIGrowth compared to last month0.5%Growth compared to the same period last year2.1%
eurozone12月未经季节调整经常帐盈余458100 million euros
eurozone12月经季节调整经常帐盈余299100 million euros
France2Monthly comprehensivePMIThe initial value is57.8，为四个月低点
France2Monthly Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)The initial value is56.1
France2Monthly service industryPMIThe initial value is57.9
eurozone2The initial value of the monthly consumer confidence index is0.1

西班牙经济部长被选为欧洲央行副总裁

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance1.2540/60 –1.2650 –1.2800
support1.2175 –1.2055 –1.1940



JPY yen -美债收益率上升支撑美元

非美货币普遍下跌，因美国公债收益率上涨支撑美元，同时今晚美国联邦储备理事会(FED)公布上次政策会议纪录前的乐观情绪也令美元受惠。市场正关注美国10年期公债收益率的门坎3%。如果达到这个水平，市场上风险偏好或将大幅下降。美国公债收益率周二上涨，指标10年期公债收益率徘徊在四年峰值附近，因投资者为本周总计2,580亿美元巨量公债供应预留空间。美国政府增加举债，这推动公债收益率上涨。美国财政部在公开市场增加发债规模，因预计去年通过的大规模税改将令预算赤字上升，以及两年期预算协议会增加联邦政府未来两年支出。日经援引日本财务省财务官浅川雅嗣谈话的报导称，日圆近来走势属于单边波动。但日圆对其谈话反应冷淡。

美元兑日圆走势，去年9month8Daily low107.31，原先被视为一支撑依据，并为双顶型态的颈线位置，直至上周明显破位，料汇价将延续弱势，虽然本周自低位回升，但若此趟反弹未有’扳回此区上方，则估计美元仍见探低风险，支持先看至200Monthly average line105.70To the extent that105关口。向上较大阻力预估在108and110关口，进一步看至250Balance moving average111.50Horizontal.

Focus:
2month23day(five): Japan1Monthly National CoreCPIthe annual rate‧Nationwide as a wholeCPIthe annual rate‧Japan2Tokyo Regional CoreCPIthe annual rate‧Tokyo region as a wholeCPIthe annual rate

Related news
黑田东彦连任日本央行总裁，支持宽松政策学者被任命为副总裁

Japan2Monthly Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)Initial value drops to54.0

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance108.00 –110.00 –111.60
support105.70 –105.00



GBP pound -续呈回吐压力

预期英国和欧盟将就脱欧协议达成一致英镑兑美元周二跌势稍缓，此前媒体报导称，欧洲议会可能会向英国提供单一市场准入“特权”。英国和欧盟可能就过渡期协议达成一致，英国被允许与欧盟保持尽可能密切关系的预期增强，在今年扶助支撑了英镑。根据BusinessInsider，欧洲议会准备促请在与英国就未来关系进行磋商中采取更加灵活的态度，与欧盟负责英国退欧事务谈判的首席代表巴尼尔之前采取的立场决裂。英国脱欧事务大臣戴维斯周二在维也纳讲话时称，英国和欧盟可能就相互的市场准入达成协议。市场人士正在关注本周稍后将公布的英国薪资数据，这些数据可能帮助巩固英国央行将在5月升息的预期。英国央行总裁卡尼本月稍早表示，升息步伐需要略微加快，且幅度要大于预期，市场认为5月升息的概率大约为80%。

As seen in the technical chart,RSI及随机指数回跌，英镑兑美元或见继续承压。上望阻力先为1.4065Further observation1.4150and1.4280水平。支持位回看1.3760，关键则料为上升趋向线1.3710，只要未有跌破此区，料英镑中期的走强格局仍会保持。

Focus:
2month21day(three): UK1月请领失业金人数变动‧英国截止12Three months in a monthILOStandard calculated unemployment rate‧英国平均每周薪资所得年率‧平均每周薪资所得(不包括奖金)the annual rate‧britain1monthPSNB‧PSNCR
2month22day(four): UK Season 4GDP修订‧商业投资初值‧britain2monthCBIRetail sales difference

Related news
British Industrial Alliance(CBI)2The difference in monthly total industrial orders is positive10，为四个月来最低水平

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance1.4065 –1.4150 –1.4280
support1.3760 –1.3710*



CHF Swiss franc -美元再探低位

美元兑瑞郎过去几天处于窄幅横盘，至目前再次下探低位，若可破位，料美元又会开展新一轮下滑。其后支持参考0.92To the extent that2015year5Monthly low0.9065，关键直指0.90关口。向上阻力预估为0.94and0.9540The next level material is200Balance moving average0.9690Horizontal.

Related news
Switzerland1The monthly trade surplus is13.24Billion Swiss francs

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance0.9400 –0.9540 –0.9690
support0.9200 –0.9065 –0.9000*



AUD AUD -因薪资数据而承压

澳元兑美元周三小跌，此前公布的薪资数据平淡，突显出马上升息的可能性微乎其微。澳元兑美元跌至0.7850水平附近。备受期待的澳洲薪资报告仅有小小惊喜，增幅为2.1%，仅略高于市场预估的成长2.0%。民间部门年度薪资增幅1.9%，远低于澳洲央行日前提出的合理目标3.5%。

技术图表所见，倘若以去年12Monthly low0.7501Until this year1Monthly high0.8136Calculate the cumulative increase in price, 61.8%The level of callback will be seen as0.7744。250Balance moving average0.7720亦料为支撑依据，至于关键则回看去年12月险守着的0.75关口。上方阻力预估在25Balance moving average0.7950and0.80关口，下一级参考今年高位0.8136。

Focus:
--澳洲第四季经季调薪资价格指数较前季涨0.6%, up from the same period last year2.1%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance0.7950 –0.8000 –0.8136
support0.7744 –0.7720 –0.7500**



NZD New Zealand dollars -呈调整

技术图表所见，较近支持先会留意0.7180and250Balance moving average0.7110。以去年11month17Daily low0.6781起始的累计涨幅计算，38.2%and50%的调整水平为0.7190and0.7110Expand to61.8%Then it is0.7030水平。至于向上阻力预估在250Weekly moving average0.7445and0.75水平，关键则回看2015year4Monthly high0.7740Horizontal.

Related news
新西兰第四季PPI投入指数较前季升0.9%，PPI产出指数升1.0%

Focus:
2month16day(five): New Zealand1Monthly manufacturing industryPMI‧外资持有新西兰公债比例
2month20day(two)：新西兰第四季PPIInput index‧PPIOutput index
2month23day(five)：新西兰第四季零售销售

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance0.7445 –0.7500 –0.7740
support0.7180 –0.7110 –0.7030



CAD Cad -美元逐呈反扑

美元兑加元走势，汇价此前多日低探至1.2350附近，但一再未能向下作出明确破位后，至近期出现显著反弹，似乎有着筑底的初步迹象。由于MACD已升破讯号线构成黄金交叉，示意美元兑加元短期倾向延续反扑。预计上探首个阻力将为为100Balance moving average1.2620；美元兑加元在本月上旬已曾冲击此指标，但未有闯过此区，如今若可再探此指标，甚至一举突破，料更为巩固美元的反弹态势，下一级看至1.2760and1.28水平。至于下方支持将回看1.2420，估计较大支撑则在1.2350and1.22Horizontal.

Focus:
2month22day(four): Canada12Monthly retail sales rate‧Deducting the monthly retail sales rate of automobiles
2month23day(five): Canada1monthCPI‧Central Bank CoreCPI

Related news
Canada12月批发贸易较前月降0.5%，批发库存较前月增1.7%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance1.2620 –1.2760 –1.2800
support1.2420 –1.2200 –1.2057



CL 纽约期油 -油价筑底回稳

U.S.Acrude oil周二在震荡交易中触及近两周高位，因库欣库存下降，且预计主要产油国可能在2018年之后继续合作，但布兰特原油受美元走强打压下跌。阿联酋能源部长兼石油输出国组织(OPEC)轮值主席马兹鲁伊称，OPECAnd Russia and other nonOPECOil producing countries will6月会议上讨论将合作延长更多年，以避免给市场带来重大冲击。据看到市场情报公司Genscape数据的交易员透露，截至2month16日当周库欣原油库存下降210万桶。从库欣到孟菲斯市开通一条新的输油管，加上TransCanadaofKeystone输油管供应减少，令库欣库存降至约三年来最低水平。Keystone输油管自11月发生泄露后输油量减少。但美元指数触及六日高位打压油价。美国原油期货收高0.22USD, or0.4%，结算报价为每桶61.90USD,3月合约到期。早盘价格升至每桶62.74USD, for2month7日以来最高。交投最活跃的4月美国原油期货收高0.24USD per barrel61.79美元。美国原油近月合约较次月合约价差在3月合约到期前反转至贴水，跌至每桶贴水0.1The low point of the US dollar is12month11日以来的最阔价差。整体上看，油价仍受到OPEC协议令供应受制的支撑，该协议从去年开始实施，旨在减少全球过剩库存。

技术图表所见，相对强弱指标及随机指数均已呈初步回稳，或见油价短期可先冲喘定。支持位先参考2month9Daily low58.07，较大支撑料指向100Balance moving average57.80USD and55美元。上方阻力则回看25Balance moving average63.10and63.80, further estimated as65USD.



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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)