Crossing the Sea 2018year2month15day

Crossing the Sea

2018

year

2

month

15

day

Focus this week:
2month15day(Thursday)
U.S.A2Monthly New York Federal Reserve Bank Manufacturing Index
Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States‧
U.S.A2Monthly Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank Manufacturing Index
U.S.A1Monthly final demandPPI
U.S.A1Monthly industrial production‧Capacity utilization rate
U.S.A1Monthly manufacturing output rate
U.S.A2monthNAHBHousing market index

2month16day(Friday)
U.S.A12Monthly overall net capital flow
U.S.A12月长期美国公债凈买卖
U.S.A1Monthly building permit annual rate
U.S.A1Monthly housing construction annual rate
U.S.A1Monthly imports‧出口物价月率
U.S.A2Initial monthly University of Michigan consumer confidence index



Important economic data released today:  
17：00 Italy12Monthly trade balance with the European Union‧Previous value2.36Yiyi surplus
17：00 Italy12Monthly Global Trade Balance‧Previous value48.30Yiyi surplus
18：00 eurozone12月未经季节调贸易平衡‧Previous value263Yiyi surplus
21：30 U.S.A2Monthly New York Federal Reserve Bank Manufacturing Index‧forecast17.5‧Previous value17.7
21：30 Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States(2month10Day and Week)‧forecast23.0ten thousand people‧Previous value22.1ten thousand people
21：30 Four week average of initial jobless claims in the United States(2month10Day and Week)‧Previous value22.45ten thousand people
21：30 Number of Americans reapplying for unemployment benefits(2month3Day and Week)‧forecast192.5ten thousand people‧Previous value192.3ten thousand people
21：30 U.S.A2Monthly Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank Manufacturing Index‧forecast21.1‧Previous value22.2
21：30 U.S.A1Monthly Final Demand Producer Price Index(PPI)Monthly rate‧forecast0.4%‧Previous value-0.1%
21：30 U.S.A1Monthly Final Demand Producer Price Index(PPI)the annual rate‧forecast2.5%‧Previous value2.6%
21：30 U.S.A1Monthly deduction of final demand for food and energyPPIMonthly rate‧forecast0.2%‧Previous value-0.1%
21：30 U.S.A1Monthly deduction of final demand for food and energyPPIthe annual rate‧forecast2.1%‧Previous value2.3%
22：15 U.S.A1Monthly industrial production rate‧forecast0.2%‧Previous value0.9%
22：15 U.S.A1Monthly capacity utilization rate‧forecast78.0%‧Previous value77.9%
22：15 U.S.A1Monthly manufacturing output rate‧forecast0.3%‧Previous value0.1%
23：00 U.S.A2monthNAHBHousing market index‧forecast72‧Previous value72

2month16day (Friday)
05：00 U.S.A12Monthly overall net capital flow‧Front value inflow338Billion
05：00 U.S.A12月长期美国公债凈买卖‧前值卖出188Billion



News of the Week
Monday/特朗普预算提案削减国内计划，拟增加军费和美墨边墙资金

U.S.A1The monthly budget surplus is490USD100mn
U.S.A2018财年迄今预算赤字为1,760USD100mn

Tuesday/克利夫兰联储总裁称，近期市场波动并未影响到经济前景

Wednesday/U.S.A12Monthly enterprise inventory increased compared to the previous month0.4%
U.S.A1The monthly average real income of the private sector decreases per week0.8%
U.S.A1Monthly CoreCPIIncrease over the same period of last year1.8%
U.S.A1Monthly CoreCPIUp from the previous month0.3%
U.S.A1monthCPIIncrease over the same period of last year2.1%
U.S.A1Monthly consumer price index(CPI)Up from the previous month0.5%
U.S.A1月扣除汽车的零售销售较前月持平
U.S.A1月零售销售较前月减少0.3%



2month14day
LondongoldMorning order price:1330.75
London gold afternoon fixing price:1336.25



Today's Introduction
美国通胀升幅大于预期，公债收益率上涨

美国公债收益率上涨，指标10年期公债收益率触及四年高位，受显示美国1月消费者物价升幅大于预期的数据提振，且核心通胀录得一年最大月度升幅。该报告看来巩固了对美国联邦储备理事会(FED)Will be on3月加息的预期，尽管1Monthly Retail Sales Creation11个月最大跌幅。周三的数据显示，美国1Monthly consumer price index(CPI)rise0.5%，因汽油和房租的价格上涨，12The monthly increase is0.2%。扣除食品和能源的核心消费者物价指数升0.3%Last year1The largest increase in the month,12Month is0.2%. stay1月就业报告显示，薪资增长2.9%后，过去两周投资人已经受通胀上升的前景困扰。他们担心的是通胀加快会导致升息，企业和个人的借款成本会增加。不过另一报告显示，1月美国零售销售下降0.3%, for11个月最大降幅，12月数据被下修为持平，之前报告为增长0.4%。零售销售报告抵消了一些CPI数据的影响。根据CMEofFedWatchFederal Funds Ratefutures周三走势显示，交易商预计美联储在下月会议上加息的机率超过八成，6月加息的可能性约60%。美国指标10年期公债收益率升至2.9%之上，创四年来最高水平。



XAU London Gold - 金价有望挑战今年高位

在美国周三公布通胀数据后，金价在短暂挫跌至1319水平后则接连冲高，日高触及1355.50美元，因美元回吐涨幅，美股震荡上行。美国劳工部公布，1月消费者物价升幅超预期，这促使交易商预计，美国联邦储备理事会(FED)的升息步伐将会快于之前的预期。数据公布后，美元一度应声上扬。不过，弱于预期的美国零售销售数据，则令美元逆转涨势。

连同周三的大幅涨势，金价本周的累积升幅已返回过去两周的下跌幅度，并有望重新挑战1month25日触及的十七个月高位1366.07美元。日线图所见，MACD逼近讯号线，有望再形成黄金交叉；而5天亦刚上破10天平均线，均示意金价短期倾向延续上涨势头。向上较大阻力将参考2016year7Monthly high1374.90美元。若果以2011Annual high1920.03美元的累计跌幅计算，38.2%的技术反弹水平将会看至1380美元。之后较重要阻力料会直指1400美元关口。至于下方支持会回看25Balance moving average1336.50美元，关键则料为1320Horizontal.

SPDRGold TrustGold holdings:
1month22Day -846.67ton
1month23Day -849.32ton
1month24Day -849.32ton
1month25Day -849.32ton
1month26Day -848.14ton
1month29Day -846.67ton
1month30Day -845.49ton
1month31Day -841.35ton
2month1Day -841.35ton
2month5Day -841.35ton
2month6Day -829.27ton
2month7Day -826.90ton
2month8Day -826.31ton
2month9Day -820.71ton
2month12Day -820.71ton
2month13Day -823.66ton
2month14Day -823.66ton

2Maturity date of monthly gold futures:2month26day
2Monthly goldoptionDue date:1month25day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Data source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2018year2month)

Global:33790.8ton
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3373.6ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2436.0ton
China(6)：1842.6ton
Russia(7)：1838.8ton
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(93)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 银价回稳上扬

随着近日银价回稳走高，5天平均线已与10天平均线形成黄金交叉，预示银价有望延续反弹行情。向上先探25Balance moving average16.95美元。若以最近一轮的跌幅计算，61.8%的反弹水平看至17.13美元。预估关键阻力将为250Weekly moving average17.76美元。下方支持料为100Balance moving average16.79and16.40，进一步支撑区域估计在16.00-16.20USD.

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
1month29Day - 9763.28ton
1month30Day - 9763.28ton
1month31Day - 9736.88ton
2month1Day - 9736.88ton
2month5Day - 9767.91ton
2month6Day - 9767.91ton
2month7Day - 9767.91ton
2month8Day - 9767.91ton
2month9Day - 9767.91ton
2month12Day - 9767.91ton
2month13Day - 9767.91ton
2month14Day - 9767.91ton



EUR euro - 有望再闯1.25Gateway

美元周三走软，因股市在强于预期的通胀数据公布后快速反弹。数据显示，美国1Monthly Core Consumer Price Index(CPI)录得一年来最大升幅，导致有关物价压力可能会加速攀升，促使美国联邦储备理事会(FED)加快升息步伐的预期升温。美联储将会打压通胀的可能性最初推升一度美元；但美元兑一篮子主要货币很快回吐涨幅，因股市在稍早下跌后反弹。美元涨势受限可能还因为美国1月零售销售意外下滑。由于美元走软，欧元兑美元亦相应走强，同时亦受助于强于预期的欧元区12月工业生产数据。

技术走势而言，相对强弱指标及随机指数现呈回升，料欧元兑美元可望维持反弹态势，上方阻力先看1.2520，此区在近两个月以来三度限制了欧元涨幅，若今趟有机会再探此区而未能破位，后市料会面面更大幅度的回挫风险。以去年10月至今的累计涨幅计算，38.2%and50%的调整水平为1.2160and1.2050Expand to61.8%Then it is1.1930。反之，若可向上破位，上望目标料在1.2650，此区为月线图所看到的大型下降趋向线阻力，后市若可跨过此区，或会启示着欧元将开展新一轮中长期升势。

Focus:
2month15day(four): France Season 4ILOunemployment rate‧Italy12Monthly trade balance with the European Union‧Global trade balance‧eurozone12Monthly trade balance
2month16day(five): Germany1月批发物价月率‧批发物价年率
2month19day(one): Eurozone12Monthly current account
2month20day(two): Germany1monthPPI‧Germany2monthZEWEconomic Sentiment Index‧ZEWEconomic Status Index‧eurozone2Initial value of monthly consumer confidence index
2month21day(three): France2monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value‧MarkitService industryPMIinitial value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value‧
Germany2monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value‧MarkitService industryPMIinitial value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value‧
eurozone2monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value‧MarkitService industryPMIinitial value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value
2month22day(four): France2Monthly Business Prosperity Index‧France1monthHICPFinal value‧Germany2monthIfoBusiness Prosperity Index‧IfoBusiness Status Index‧IfoBusiness Expectation Index‧Italy12Monthly industrial orders‧Industrial sales‧Italy1monthCPIFinal value‧HICPFinal value
2month23day(five)：德国第四季GDP修订‧eurozone1monthHICPFinal value‧Deducting food and energy expensesHICPFinal value

Related news
Germany Season 4GDPThe initial value is growth compared to the previous season0.6%Growth compared to the same period last year2.3%
Germany1Monthly consumer price index(CPI)终值较上年同期上升1.6%
Germany1Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)终值较上年同期上升1.4%
Germany1Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)终值较前月下降1.0%
Germany1Monthly consumer price index(CPI)终值较前月下降0.7%  

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2340 – 1.2420 – 1.2520
support 1.2160 – 1.2090 – 1.2000



JPY yen - Climb to15Month high

美元兑日圆走势，过去两周多汇价反复下探108关口，至本周终为突破，料后市美元仍见探低风险，估计支持看至200Monthly average line105.70To the extent that105关口。向上阻力预估在108and110关口，进一步看至250Balance moving average111.60Horizontal.

Focus:
2month16day(five)：日本前周日本投资外国债券‧前周外资投资日股
2month19day(one): Japan2Monthly Reuters Short term Manufacturing Prosperity Index‧Japan1Monthly export annual rate‧Annual import rate‧trade balance
2month21day(three): Japan2Monthly and daily manufacturing industryPMIinitial value
2month23day(five): Japan1Monthly National CoreCPIthe annual rate‧Nationwide as a wholeCPIthe annual rate‧Japan2Tokyo Regional CoreCPIthe annual rate‧Tokyo region as a wholeCPIthe annual rate

Related news
Japan1Monthly Domestic Enterprise Price Index(CGPI)较前月增加0.3%
Japan1Monthly Domestic Enterprise Price Index(CGPI)Increase compared to the same period last year2.7%
日本第四季GDPThe month on month annual rate is growth0.5%
日本第四季GDPGrowth compared to the previous quarter0.1%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 108.00 – 110.00 – 111.60
support 107.31 – 105.80 – 105.00



GBP pound - 整固企稳

英国退欧运动重要支持者、英国外交大臣约翰逊周三发表演说，他表示，留在欧洲单一市场和关税同盟的好处并非像支持者所说的那么“明显或无可辩驳”。这是英国政府大臣一连串退欧讲话的首场。企业领袖称，约翰逊的演说并没有详细阐述英国和欧盟未来关系。在美元大幅走低的情况下，英镑兑美元重登1.40关口，延续上日的涨势，周二数据显示，英国1月通胀数据意外接近六年最高水平，巩固了投资人对英国央行将在5月再度加息的押注。

As seen in the technical chart,RSI及随机指数回升，英镑兑美元有望继续走高；上望阻力先为1.4065Further observation1.4150and1.4280水平。支持位回看25Balance moving average1.3980and1.3760，关键则料为上升趋向线1.3680，只要未有跌破此区，料英镑中期的走强格局仍会保持。

Focus:
2month16day(five): UK1Monthly retail sales‧Retail sales excluding energy
2month20day(two): UK2Monthly Industrial Alliance(CBI)Total industrial order difference
2month21day(three): UK1月请领失业金人数变动‧英国截止12Three months in a monthILOStandard calculated unemployment rate‧英国平均每周薪资所得年率‧平均每周薪资所得(不包括奖金)the annual rate‧britain1monthPSNB‧PSNCR
2month22day(four): UK Season 4GDP修订‧商业投资初值‧britain2monthCBIRetail sales difference

Related news
Bank of EnglandMPC委员弗利葛称，进一步升息可能是适宜的

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.4000 – 1.4130 – 1.4280
support 1.3825 – 1.3700 – 1.3420



CHF Swiss franc - 美元再探低位

美元兑瑞郎过去几天处于窄幅横盘，至目前再次下探低位，若可破位，料美元又会开展新一轮下滑。其后支持参考0.92To the extent that2015year5Monthly low0.9065，关键直指0.90关口。向上阻力预估为0.94and0.9540The next level material is200Balance moving average0.9795Horizontal.

Focus:
2month20day(two)Switzerland1Monthly trade balance

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.9400 – 0.9540 – 0.9795
support 0.9290 – 0.9200 – 0.9065



AUD AUD - 反弹，因风险偏好回温

技术图表所见，倘若以去年12Monthly low0.7501Until this year1Monthly high0.8136Calculate the cumulative increase in price, 61.8%The level of callback will be seen as0.7744。250Balance moving average0.7720亦料为支撑依据，至于关键则回看去年12月险守着的0.75关口。上方阻力预估在25Balance moving average0.7950and0.80关口，下一级参考今年高位0.8136。

Related news
NAB: Australia1月企业现况指数升至正19
NAB: Australia1月企业信心指数升至正12
Australia1月经季节调整后就业人口增加1.60ten thousand people
Australia1月经季节调整后失业率为5.5%
Australia1Reduction in full-time employment after seasonal adjustment of menstruation4.98ten thousand people
Australia1月经季节调整后就业参与率为65.6%

Focus:
2month21day(three)：澳洲第四季建筑完工额季率‧薪资价格指数

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7950 – 0.8000 – 0.8136
support 0.7744 – 0.7720 – 0.7500**



NZD New Zealand dollars - 因通胀预期上升而跳涨

技术图表所见，较近支持先会留意0.7180and250Balance moving average0.7110。以去年11month17Daily low0.6781起始的累计涨幅计算，38.2%and50%的调整水平为0.7190and0.7110Expand to61.8%Then it is0.7030水平。至于向上阻力预估在250Weekly moving average0.7445and0.75水平，关键则回看2015year4Monthly high0.7740Horizontal.

Related news
New Zealand1月经季调房价中值按年上升7%，按月上升0.6%

Focus:
2month16day(five): New Zealand1Monthly manufacturing industryPMI‧外资持有新西兰公债比例
2month20day(two)：新西兰第四季PPIInput index‧PPIOutput index
2month23day(five)：新西兰第四季零售销售

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7445 – 0.7500 – 0.7740
support 0.7180 – 0.7110 – 0.7030



CAD Cad - 美元逐呈反扑

美元兑加元走势，汇价此前多日低探至1.2350附近，但一再未能向下作出明确破位后，至上周出现显著反弹，似乎有着筑底的初步迹象。由于MACD已升破讯号线构成黄金交叉，示意美元兑加元短期倾向延续反扑。预计上探首个阻力将为为100Balance moving average1.2620；美元兑加元在本月上旬已曾冲击此指标，但未有闯过此区，如今若可再探此指标，甚至一举突破，料更为巩固美元的反弹态势，下一级看至1.2760and1.28水平。至于下方支持将回看1.2420，估计较大支撑则在1.2350and1.22Horizontal.

Focus:
2month16day(five): Canada12Monthly manufacturing sales rate
2month20day(two): Canada12Monthly wholesale trade rate
2month22day(four): Canada12Monthly retail sales rate‧Deducting the monthly retail sales rate of automobiles
2month23day(five): Canada1monthCPI‧Central Bank CoreCPI

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2600 – 1.2760 – 1.2800
support 1.2420 – 1.2200 – 1.2057



CL 纽约期油 - 油价筑底回稳

技术图表所见，相对强弱指标及随机指数均已呈初步回稳，或见油价短期可先冲喘定。支持位先参考上周低位58.07，较大支撑料指向100Balance moving average57.45USD and55美元。上方阻力则回看62and63.80, further estimated as65USD.



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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)