Crossing the Sea 2018year2month5day

Crossing the Sea

2018

year

2

month

5

day

Focus this week:
2month5day(Monday)
U.S.A1monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value
U.S.A1monthMarkitcomprehensivePMIFinal value
U.S.A1monthISMNon manufacturingPMI

2month6day(Tuesday)
U.S.A12Monthly International Trade Balance
U.S.A12月劳工部JOLTS调查职位空缺
U.S.A12Monthly Consumer Credit

2month8day(Thursday)
Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States

2month9day(Friday)
U.S.A12Monthly wholesale inventory‧sales



Important economic data released today:  
06：30 Australia1monthAIGService Industry Index‧Previous value52
08：30 Australia1月整体招聘广告月率‧Previous value-2.3%
09：45 China1月财新服务业采购经理人指数(PMI)
16：45 Italy1monthMarkit/ADACICIPS services PMI (PMI)‧Previous value55.4
16：50 France1monthMarkitCIPS services PMI (PMI)‧Previous value59.3
16：50 France1monthMarkitComprehensive Purchasing Manager Index(PMI)‧Previous value59.7
16：55 Germany1monthMarkitCIPS services PMI (PMI)Final value‧forecast57.0‧Previous value57.0
16：55 Germany1monthMarkitComprehensive Purchasing Manager Index(PMI)Final value‧forecast58.8‧Previous value58.8
17：00 eurozone1monthMarkitCIPS services PMI (PMI)Final value‧forecast57.6‧Previous value57.6
17：00 eurozone1monthMarkitComprehensive Purchasing Manager Index(PMI)Final value‧forecast58.6‧Previous value58.6
17：30 britain1monthMarkit/CIPSCIPS services PMI (PMI)‧Previous value54.2
17：30 eurozone2Monthly EurozoneSentixInvestor confidence index‧Previous value32.9
18：00 eurozone12Monthly retail sales rate‧forecast1.0%‧Previous value1.5%
18：00 eurozone12Monthly retail sales annual rate‧forecast1.8%‧Previous value2.8%
22：45 U.S.A1monthMarkitCIPS services PMI (PMI)Final value‧Previous value53.3
22：45 U.S.A1monthMarkitComprehensive Purchasing Manager Index(PMI)Final value‧Previous value53.8
23：00 U.S.A1monthISMNon manufacturing Purchasing Managers'Index(PMI)‧forecast56.3‧Previous value56.0
23：00 U.S.A1monthISM非制造业企业活动分项指数‧Previous value57.8
23：00 U.S.A1monthISM非制造业就业分项指数‧Previous value56.3
23：00 U.S.A1monthISM非制造业新订单分项指数‧Previous value54.3
23：00 U.S.A1monthISM非制造业投入物价分项指数‧Previous value59.9



2month2day
LondongoldMorning order price:1345.00
London gold afternoon fixing price:1331.15



XAU London Gold - 美元越趋回稳，金价呈回吐压力


伦敦黄金在一月份上升3.2%，因美元兑一篮子货币跌至三年低位。黄金在1month25日曾触及17个月峰值1366.07美元，至上周金价整体处于1330to1350区间争持上落，而在周五美国非农数据公布后，金价显著回落至1330美元下方。技术图表所见，相对强弱指标及随机指数均已呈下跌；同时，金价由去年12月中旬至今的上升行情中已在图表形成一上升趋向线，目前位于1355美元，倘若后市仍居于此区下方，短期金价料仍有进一步调整压力。若以最近的一段升幅作计算，38.2%and50%The level of feedback is1324.70and1311.90，61.8%Then it is1299。上方阻力料为1343and1350美元，进一步则可参考上月高位1366USD.

London Gold2018year2month5 – 9day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1320 – 1337
Resistance level:1346 – 1362 – 1387
Support bit:1311 – 1285 – 1270

London Gold2018year2month5day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1328 – 1337
Resistance level:1346 – 1357
Support bit:1320 – 1310

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
1month15Day -828.96ton
1month16Day -828.96ton
1month17Day -828.96ton
1month18Day -840.76ton
1month19Day -846.67ton
1month22Day -846.67ton
1month23Day -849.32ton
1month24Day -849.32ton
1month25Day -849.32ton
1month26Day -848.14ton
1month29Day -846.67ton
1month30Day -845.49ton
1month31Day -841.35ton
2month1Day -841.35ton

2Monthly goldfuturesDue date:2month26day
2Monthly goldoptionDue date:1month25day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Data source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2017year12month)

Global:33604.1ton (+104.5ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3373.6ton (-0.1ton)
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.9ton
China(6)：1842.6ton
Russia(7)：1801.2ton (+22.3ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 银价处于盘整阶段

伦敦白银方面，图表见相对强弱指标及随机指数均呈下滑，预示短期银价仍倾向继续下调。以最近的一轮涨幅计算，38.2%and50%的回调水平为16.89and16.64Expand to61.8%Then it is16.39美元。较大支持将可看16美元关口及200Monthly average line15.78美元，上升趋向线支撑15.28则视为关键。向上阻力200Balance moving average16.82and17美元关口，下一级可参考17.40USD.

London Silver2018year2month5 – 9day
Predicting early wave amplitude:16.00 – 17.00
Resistance level:17.80 – 18.20 – 18.80
Support bit:15.80 – 15.20 – 14.80

London Silver2018year2month5day
Predicting early wave amplitude:16.20 – 17.00
Resistance level:17.50 – 17.80
Support bit:16.00 – 15.80

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
1month15Day - 9839.55ton
1month16Day - 9839.55ton
1month17Day - 9839.55ton
1month18Day - 9813.15ton
1month19Day - 9813.15ton
1month22Day - 9772.08ton
1month23Day - 9736.88ton
1month23Day - 9736.88ton
1month25Day - 9763.28ton
1month26Day - 9763.28ton
1month29Day - 9763.28ton
1month30Day - 9763.28ton
1month31Day - 9736.88ton
2month1Day - 9736.88ton



EUR euro - 强劲制造业调查结果给欧元带来支撑

欧元兑美元周五争持于1.25水平附近，但仍距三年高位1.2538美元不远。技术走势而言，欧元兑美元近日处于高位区间横盘；预计当前向上阻力在1.2540水平，另外，延伸自2008year7月的下降趋向线则位于1.2680水平，为后市瞩目参考；进一步则会看至1.2885。至于下方支持先会留意本周低位水平1.2330，需慎防若此区失守，则欧元倾向先作较明显回吐；较大支持料为1.2090To the extent that1.20Gateway.

Focus:
2month5day(one): Italy1monthMarkit/ADACIService industryPMI‧France1monthMarkitService industryPMI‧MarkitcomprehensivePMI‧Germany1monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIFinal value‧eurozone1monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIFinal value‧eurozone2Monthly EurozoneSentixInvestor confidence index‧eurozone12Monthly retail sales
2month6day(two): Germany12Monthly industrial order rate‧法国年内截至12Monthly budget balance
2month7day(three): Germany12Monthly industrial production rate‧France12Monthly current account‧trade balance‧Italy12Monthly retail sales
2month8day(four): Germany12Monthly trade balance‧出口月率‧进口月率
2month9day(five): France12Monthly industrial production rate‧Italy12Monthly industrial production

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2500 – 1.2680 – 1.2885
support 1.2360 – 1.2163 – 1.2090



JPY yen - 下滑，此前日本央行进行特别购债操作

美元兑日圆走势，图表所见，由去年九月至今，美元兑日圆走势形成了一组双顶型态，颈线位置在11month27Daily low110.83，至上周已见明确跌破此区，只要汇价仍可继续居于此区下方，预料美元后市持续下试。其后较具意义支持将会参考为去年9Monthly low107.31To the next level200Monthly average line105.70To the extent that105关口。向上阻力则预估在110and250Balance moving average111.75Horizontal.

Focus:
2month7day(three): Japan1monthforeign exchangereserve‧Japan12Monthly overtime pay annual rate
2month8day(four): Japan1Monthly bank loan annual rate‧日本前周日本投资外国债券‧前周外资投资日股‧Japan12月流动帐平衡‧Japan1Monthly Service Industry Prosperity Index--经济观察者调查

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 110.00 – 111.80
support 107.31 – 105.80 – 105.00



GBP pound - 央行焦点转向通胀，英镑大举反扑

技术图表所见，相对强弱指标及随机指数有着初步回落迹象，或见英镑开始呈现调整压力。下方支持先看1.4150and1.40关口，关键则在25Balance moving average1.3840，只要未有跌破此区，料英镑近两个月以来的走强格局仍会保持。至于向上阻力位预估在1.4280, further estimated as200Weekly moving average1.4380and1.45Horizontal.

Focus:
2month2day(five): UK1monthMarkit/CIPSconstructionPMI
2month5day(one): UK1monthMarkit/CIPSService industryPMI
2month6day(two): UK1monthBRC同店零售销售年率
2month7day(three): UK1monthHalifaxMonthly rate of housing price index‧UK as of1Three months of the monthHalifaxAnnual rate of housing price index
2month8day(four): UK1monthRICSPrice difference‧britain2Monthly Central Bank Interest Rate Resolution‧Scale of quantitative easing‧MPCVoting results(升息-unchanged-Interest rate reduction)
2month9day(five): UK12月建筑业产出‧industrial production ‧Manufacturing output‧对非欧盟地区贸易平衡‧全球商品贸易平衡

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.4280 – 1.4380 – 1.4500
support 1.4150 – 1.4000 – 1.3820*



CHF Swiss franc - 美元再探低位

美元兑瑞郎周三触及0.9287的两年半低位后，过去几天处于窄幅横盘，至目前再次下探低位，若可破位，料美元又会开展新一轮下滑。其后支持参考0.92To the extent that2015year5Monthly low0.9065，关键直指0.90关口。向上阻力预估为0.94and0.9540The next level material is200Balance moving average0.9795Horizontal.

Focus:
2month9day(five)Switzerland1Monthly unemployment rate

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.9400 – 0.9540 – 0.9795
support 0.9290 – 0.9200 – 0.9065



AUD AUD - 因海外收益率上涨而下

技术图表所见，预计澳元兑美元当前阻力先参考0.8050and2015year5Monthly high0.8164，而上周高位0.8136已见相当接近此水平；预估下一级阻力则会指向0.83水平。不过，要留意相对强弱指标及随机指数均已呈下跌，预料澳元兑美元仍存在进一步下试风险。估计下方支撑先看上月中旬的四日低位0.7940Horizontal, with larger supporting materials100Balance moving average0.7770To the extent that0.77Horizontal.

Focus:
2month5day(one): Australia1monthAIGService Industry Index‧整体招聘广告月率
2month6day(two): Australia12Monthly retail sales rate‧澳洲第四季零售销售季率‧Australia12Monthly products/Service trade balance‧进口月率‧出口月率‧Australia2Monthly central bank interest rate decision
2month7day(three): Australia1monthAIG建筑业指数
2month9day(five): Australia12月住房屋融资月率‧投资房屋融资

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.8164 – 0.8300
support 0.8000 – 0.7940 – 0.7770



NZD New Zealand dollars - 上行动力料有限

纽元兑美元方面，图表可见MACD指针正初步跌破讯号线，估计纽元再而上升的动力将为有限。较近支持先会留意0.7280and250Balance moving average0.7110。以去年11month17Daily low0.6781起始的累计涨幅计算，38.2%and50%的调整水平为0.7190and0.7110Expand to61.8%Then it is0.7030水平。至于向上阻力预估在250Weekly moving average0.7460and0.75水平，关键则回看2015year4Monthly high0.7740Horizontal.

Focus:
2month7day(three)：新西兰第四季HLFSunemployment rate‧HLFSQuarterly employment growth rate‧HLFSEmployment participation rate
2month8day(four)：新西兰央行利率决定

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7460 – 0.7500 – 0.7740
support 0.7280 – 0.7190 – 0.7110



CAD Cad - 美元继续探试底部

技术走势而言，美元兑加元近两日的多番探低亦是刚好止步于起延自去年9月的上升趋向线，由于MACD与讯号线正处于交迭，有机会即将呈现黄金交叉，示意美元兑加元短期倾向展开反扑。预计上探首个阻力将为1.2380and25Balance moving average position1.2440The key is100Balance moving average1.26；汇价在本月上旬已曾冲击此指标，但未有闯过此区，如今若可再探此指标，甚至一举突破，料更为巩固美元的反弹态势。下方支持回看上升趋向线1.2260，估计较大支撑则在1.22及参考去年9Monthly low1.2057。

Focus:
2month6day(two): Canada12Monthly trade balance‧Export‧Import‧Canada1monthIveyPMI
2month7day(three): Canada12Monthly building permit rate
2month8day(four): Canada1Monthly housing construction starts‧Canada12月新屋价格月率
2month9day(five): Canada1Changes in monthly employment positions‧unemployment rate‧Employment participation rate   

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2380 – 1.2440 – 1.2600
support 1.2260 – 1.2200 – 1.2057



CL 纽约期油 - crude oil价格冲高，因产油国减产协议执行率较高

技术图表所见，相对强弱指标及随机指数均已呈初步背驰，同时，MACD亦下破讯号线，油价出现回跌的风险加剧，眼下关键将为25Balance moving average63.50美元，需防范若然此区失守，或见油价面临更为大幅度的回挫。以自去年12月中旬至上周高位的累计涨幅计算，38.2%and50%的回调水平为62.50and61.25Expand to61.8%Then in the60美元。上方阻力则回看66.50美元。由2013Annual high112.24to2016Annual low26.05美元，若可扳回一半跌幅将可达至69.15美元，进一步扩展至61.8%Then it is79.30美元，可作为短线目标，中期目标可参考86.80and101.20美元。建议可在59to61水平买入。



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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)