NFX 品汇国际：美元反弹后难改秃势，非美反弹未尽

Market Review
　　在上周五的foreign exchange市场上，美元呈低位震荡整理的走势，美元指数最高上涨到89.53, 最低下跌到88.72, closing at89。07。欧美最高上涨到1.24930，最低下跌到1.23710, closing at1.24210。
　　上周五美国最新公布的四季度GDP、个人消费支出以及耐用品订单数据表现良莠不齐，美元指数短线震荡加剧，但振幅有限。美国总统特朗普与美国财长努钦日内均发表了讲话，但对市场影响甚微。而日本央行行长黑田东彦的一番讲话却意外抢镜，美元/日元短线急跌超120Points.
United States2017年第四季度经济增长稳定，但较夏季略失增长势头。经济增长稳固主要在于美国居民及商业消费稳步增加，2017年最后三个月中，夏季飓风带来的影响已经消退，消费者与企业加大购买力度也为第四季度GDP带来一定贡献。而第四季度实际个人消费支出和四季度核心PCE物价指数均好于预期，显示出美国消费支出强劲，通胀水平也在上升，这在一定程度上为美联储加息提供了信心。据CME“美联储观察”，美联储今年3Monthly interest rate increase25Bps to1.5%-1.75%区间的概率上升至77.4%。
　　日本央行行长黑田东彦上周五表示，长达15年的通缩心态很难从消费者身上消除，但前景乐观，央行正接近通胀目标。由于市场参与者将日本央行行长黑田的言论解读为相对乐观(因此对全球最鸽派的央行行长之一来说偏鹰派)USD/日元短线迅速下跌120余点。
从技术上来看,美指上周五反弹受阻在89.55Blocked below, falling below88.72之上受到brace, closing at89.07,意味着美元短线回调后可能会继续保持反弹的走势。如果美指今天回调在88.70之之上受到brace，后市反弹的目标将会指向89.50—89.90。美指只有日线重新收盘在90.00之上，才会缓解目前汇价下跌的走势。美指只有站稳在91.00之上，汇价才会继续扩大反弹的空间。美指现在阶段性底部有可能临近，如果美指能够保持88.20--88.25ofbrace不被有效跌破，美指上涨到92.00希望仍然存在。
[Trading Strategy]
US dollar index: can be found in89.50—88.70Buying at the lower limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit30Point stop loss, the target is at the upper limit of the range.
Euro/USD: can be used in1.24850---1.23650Sell at the upper limit of the range, effectively breaking through400Point stop loss, with the target at the lower limit of the range.
GBP/USD: can be used in1.42600---1.40800Sell at the upper limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit400Point stop loss, with the target at the lower limit of the range.
USD/Ruilang: You can find0.94150---0.93050区间下限买入，有效破位400Stop loss at a single point, with the target at the upper limit of the range.
USD/Japanese yen: can be used in109.550---108.050Buying at the lower limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit400Stop loss at a single point, with the target at the upper limit of the range.
AUD/USD: can be used in0.81700---0.80600Buying at the lower limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit400Point stop loss, the target is at the upper limit of the range.
USD/CAD: Can be used in1.23750---1.22750Buying at the lower limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit400Stop loss at a single point, with the target at the upper limit of the range.
　　gold: Can be found in the1357.00—1344.00Sell at the upper limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit6USD stop loss, targeting the lower limit of the range.
白银：可以在17.550—17.250Sell at the upper limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit0.150USD stop loss, targeting the lower limit of the range.
Today's Key Financial Data and Events
① 21:30 U.S.A12Monthly personal expenditure rate, US12Monthly CorePCE物价指数月率、美国12Monthly CorePCEAnnual rate of price index
② 23:30 U.S.A1Dallas Fed Business Activity Index for the Month