Crossing the Sea2018year1month25day

Crossing the Sea

2018

year

1

month

25

day

Focus this week:
1month25day(Thursday)
U.S.A12Monthly Building Permit Revision
U.S.A12Initial value of monthly commodity trade balance
U.S.A12Monthly wholesale inventory rate
Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
U.S.A12Monthly leading indicator monthly rate
U.S.A12Monthly sales of new houses

1month26day(Friday)
U.S.A12Monthly rate of durable goods orders
US Q4GDPInitial value of month on month annual rate
美国第四季最终销售
美国第四季消费者支出
US Q4GDP平减指数
US Q4 CorePCEprice index



Today's important economic data:
17：00Germany1monthIfoEnterprise Prosperity Index‧forecast117.1‧Previous value117.2
17：00Germany1monthIfoEnterprise Status Index‧forecast125.4‧Previous value125.4
17：00Germany1monthIfoEnterprise Expectation Index‧forecast109.4‧Previous value109.5
17：00Italy12Initial value of monthly non EU trade balance‧Previous value46.0Yiyi surplus
17：00Italy11月经季节调整工业订单月率‧Previous value1.9%
17：00Italy11月未经季节调整工业订单年率‧Previous value12.5%
17：00Italy11月经季节调整工业销售月率‧Previous value1.1%
17：00Italy11月未经季节调整工业销售年率‧Previous value6.0%
17：30britain12monthUK FINANCENumber of approved mortgage loans‧Previous value39.507Thousand pieces
19：00britain1Monthly Industrial Alliance(CBI)Retail sales difference‧Predict positive12‧Front value positive20
20：45eurozone1月欧洲央行再融资利率‧forecast0.0%‧Previous value0.0%
20：45eurozone1月欧洲央行存款利率‧Predict negative0.4%‧Negative front value0.4%
21：00U.S.A12月建筑许可年率修订‧Previous value130.210000 households
21：00U.S.A12月建筑许可月率修订‧Previous value-0.1%
21：30Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States(1month20Day and Week)‧forecast24.0ten thousand people‧Previous value22.0ten thousand people
21：30Four week average of initial jobless claims in the United States(1month20Day and Week)‧Previous value24.45ten thousand people
21：30Number of Americans reapplying for unemployment benefits(1month13Day and Week)‧forecast192.5ten thousand people‧Previous value195.2ten thousand people
21：30Canada11Monthly retail sales rate‧forecast0.7%‧Previous value1.5%
21：30Canada11Monthly retail sales rate after deducting cars‧forecast0.8%‧Previous value0.8%
23：00U.S.A12Monthly leading indicator monthly rate‧forecast0.5%‧Previous value0.4%
23：00U.S.A12Monthly New Home Sales Annual Rate‧forecast67.910000 households‧Previous value73.310000 households
23：00U.S.A12月新屋销售月率‧forecast-7.9%‧Previous value17.5%



News of the Week
Monday/美国国会通过拨款协议，政府关门的局面即将结束
IMF上调今明两年全球经济增长预估，因美国减税料提振投资

Tuesday/Richmond Federal Reserve Bank1The monthly comprehensive manufacturing index is positive14

Wednesday/美国财长努钦称美元走软利好美国贸易

U.S.A12Monthly housing sales decrease3.6%At an annual rate of55710000 households
U.S.A1monthMARKITComprehensive Purchasing Manager Index(PMI)The initial value is53.8
U.S.A1monthMARKITCIPS services PMI (PMI)The initial value is53.3
U.S.A1monthMARKITManufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)The initial value is55.5, for2015year3The highest since the beginning of the month



1month24day
LondongoldMorning order price:1350.50
London gold afternoon fixing price:1353.70


Today's Introduction
努钦称美元走软利好美国贸易

周三美元的溃败势头进一步加剧，之前美国财长努钦称美元贬值“对美国有利”。作为美国财长，努钦的这番讲话极不寻常，因为这一反美国政府以往支持强势美元的公开表态，虽说是美国政府为了迫使贸易伙伴对美国企业开放本地市场而与之闹得不可开交。美元贬值虽被认为有助于增强美国出口商的海外竞争力，但同时也可能损害美元作为全球头号储备货币的地位，并加深对于贸易保护主义的忧虑。美国总统特朗普一直大力鼓吹贸易保护主义，他定于周五在达沃斯论坛上发表讲话。特朗普周二签署立法，将对进口太阳能电池板和洗衣机征收高额关税，以应对来自中国等亚洲生产国的低成本商品大量涌入。美国商务部长罗斯(WilburRoss)随后也作出了不同寻常的举动。他试图缓和努钦的言论，对CNBC电视称努钦“并未主张美元贬值”。但罗斯此话未能击退美元空头。美元贸易加权指数下跌至88.80, for2014year12月以来最低。在努钦达沃斯发表评论之前，美元就已经因为各界揣测其他央行将开始收回超宽松政策而下跌。futures市场显示，投机客上周持有的美元空仓创下10The highest since the beginning of the month.



XAU London Gold -金价升见一年半高位，因美元疲软

金价周四再冲击一年半高点。美国财长努钦发表对美元走软表示欢迎的评论后，美元接近三年低位。努钦周三在达沃斯世界经济论坛表示，“显然美元贬值对我们有利，因这关系到贸易和机遇。”市场认为此番言论背离了美国传统的汇率政策。

黄金走势而言，上周一及周三亦见金价涨至1344美元附近水平，在本周三再度上探下终见突破。预估延伸目标在1370and1378美元，进一步看至1388and1400美元关口。下方支撑料为1353and1343水平，较大支撑见于1338。

London Gold2018year1month25day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1353 –1370
Resistance level:1378–1388 –1400
Support bit:1345–1338 –1332

SPDR GoldTrustGold holdings:
1month8Day -834.86ton
1month9Day -831.91ton
1month10Day -828.96ton
1month11Day -828.96ton
1month12Day -828.96ton
1month15Day -828.96ton
1month16Day -828.96ton
1month17Day -828.96ton
1month18Day -840.76ton
1month19Day -846.67ton
1month22Day -846.67ton
1month23Day -849.32ton
1month24Day -849.32ton

2Maturity date of monthly gold futures:2month26day
2Monthly goldoptionDue date:1month25day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Data source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2017year12month)

Global:33604.1ton (+104.5ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3373.6ton (-0.1ton)
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.9ton
China(6)：1842.6ton
Russia(7)：1801.2ton (+22.3ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver -银价创四个月高位

伦敦白银方面，当前向上阻力先为18美元关口；较大阻力估计为去年9Monthly high18.21美元，进一步看至18.90。下方支持料为17.30and16.70Horizontal.
        
London Silver2018year1month25day
Predicting early wave amplitude:17.30 –18.00
Resistance level:18.20–18.90
Support bit:16.70–16.30

iSharesSilver TrustSilver holdings:
1month8Day - 9877.69ton
1month9Day - 9877.69ton
1month10Day - 9839.55ton
1month11Day - 9839.55ton
1month12Day - 9839.55ton
1month15Day - 9839.55ton
1month16Day - 9839.55ton
1month17Day - 9839.55ton
1month18Day - 9813.15ton
1month19Day - 9813.15ton
1month22Day - 9772.08ton
1month23Day - 9736.88ton
1month23Day - 9736.88ton



EUR euro -美元受努钦言论打压创三年低位，关注欧洲议息

美元兑其他主要货币周四下滑至三年低点，此前美国财长努钦称，他对美元走软表示欢迎，此言论打击了美元；欧元则继续走强，等待欧洲央行政策决议。欧元兑美元一度升见1.2450上方，为2014year12月以来最高。此前努钦在达沃斯世界经济论坛表示，“显然美元贬值对我们有利，因这关系到贸易和机遇。”市场认为此番言论背离了美国传统的汇率政策。自1990年代末鲁宾任美国财长时期以来，美国多位财长一再表示，强势美元符合国家利益。美元在此之前已然处于守势，因美国总统特朗普本周稍早决定对进口洗衣机和太阳能电池板征收关税，引起了对于贸易保护主义的担忧。上周美元承压，因市场预期欧洲央行和日本央行货币政策将正常化，而在努钦发表言论后，空头趋势进入了全新阶段。短期焦点为日内稍晚的欧洲央行政策会议，市场将寻找该央行是否对欧元快速升值感到担忧的迹象。若欧央行淡化提早货币政策正常化的前景，并对欧元升值发出警告，可能就会限制欧元涨势。

技术走势而言，欧元兑美元自上周处于高位区间横盘，但在周三初步已见上破盘整区间的顶部后，或见短线将延续涨势；预计当前向上阻力在200Monthly average line1.2430and1.25水平，另外，延伸自2008year7月的下降趋向线则位于1.27水平，为后市又一瞩目参考。至于下方支持先留意1.2290，关键则回看上周四低位1.2163，需慎防若此区失守，则欧元更倾向先作回吐；较大支持料为1.2090Horizontal.

Focus:
1month25day(four): Germany2monthGFKConsumer confidence index‧Germany1monthIfoEnterprise Prosperity Index‧IfoEnterprise Status Index‧IfoEnterprise Expectation Index‧Italy12Initial value of monthly non EU trade balance‧Italy11Monthly industrial orders‧Industrial sales‧eurozone1月欧洲央行再融资利率‧欧洲央行存款利率
1month26day(five): France1Monthly Enterprise Prosperity Index‧Consumer confidence index‧eurozone12monthM3Supply of goods‧M3For household loans

Related news
eurozone1月消费者信心指数跳升至正1.3
Germany1monthZEW经济景气指数升至正20.4

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance1.2430 –1.2500 –1.2700
support1.2290 –1.2163 –1.2090



JPY yen -美元指数跌至三年低位

美国财政部长努钦在达沃斯世界经济论坛上对美元走软表示欢迎，称“显然美元贬值对我们有利，因这关系到贸易和机遇。”市场认为此番言论背离了美国传统的汇率政策。美元兑日圆下滑至108.80下方，达至四个月低位。日本央行周二一如预期维持货币政策不变，央行总裁黑田东彦则打消了市场对该行将在今年晚些时候转变超宽松政策的揣测。不过黑田东彦的言论对遏制日圆升值几乎没有什么效果。

美元兑日圆方面，图表所见，由去年九月至今，美元兑日圆走势形成了一组双顶型态，颈线位置为11month27Daily low110.83，至本周一已见明确跌破此区，预料美元后市将迎来更猛烈的下滑。其后较具意义的支持则会参考为去年9Monthly low107.31To the next level200Monthly average line105.80To the extent that105关口。向上阻力预估在110and250Balance moving average111.80Horizontal.

Focus:
1month24day(three): Japan12Monthly export annual rate‧Annual import rate‧trade balance‧Japan1Month Day Meridian/MarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value
1month25day(four)：日本前周日本投资外国债券‧前周外资投资日股
1month26day(five): Japan12monthCPI

Related news
日本央行维持政策不变，对通胀前景乐观程度略上升
日本央行预计2017/18财年实质GDPMaterial growth1.9%, and10月预估一致
Japan1Monthly manufacturing industryPMIInitial value increased to54.4，为近四年来最高
Japan12月出口较上年同期增加9.3%
Japan12Monthly imports increased compared to the same period last year14.9%
Japan12The monthly trade surplus is3590Billion yen

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance110.00 –111.80
support107.31 –105.80 –105.00



GBP pound -录得九个月来的最大单日涨幅

英镑周三升势凌厉，录得逾九个月来的最大单日涨幅，因英国就业数据强劲，美元普遍疲软促使投资者纷纷建立英镑多头头寸。近日来，英镑创下2016年脱欧公投导致英镑急挫以来的一系列新高。最新的提振来自于乐观的就业数据，该数据缓解了对经济处于困境的担忧，燃点了央行可能今年升息超过一次的希望。周三公布的官方数据显示，截至11月的三个月英国就业人数意外大增，基本工资以近一年来最快速度增长。

技术图表见，下方支持先看1.42and1.40关口。至于向上阻力位预估在1.4350，进一步可参考200Weekly moving average1.4410To the extent that1.45Horizontal.

Focus:
1month24day(three): UK12Number of monthly claims for unemployment benefits‧UK as of11Three months in a monthILOStandard calculated unemployment rate‧英国平均每周薪资所得年率‧平均每周薪资所得(不包括奖金)the annual rate
1month25day(four): UK12monthUK FINANCENumber of approved mortgage loans‧britain1monthCBIRetail sales difference
1month26day(five): UK Season 4GDPinitial value

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance1.4350 –1.4410 –1.4500
support1.4200 –1.4000*



CHF Swiss franc -美元兑瑞郎跌至2015year8Lowest since month

美元兑瑞郎周四跌逾0.3%Touching2015year8月以来最低水平，因美国财长努钦发表对美元贬值表示欢迎的言论后，美元承压。图表见下方支撑估计在0.9380and0.93水平，之后参考0.92水平。向上阻力预估0.9540and0.9660The next level material is200Balance moving average0.9750Horizontal.

Focus:
1month18day(four)Switzerland12Monthly Producer/Import prices

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance0.9540 –0.9660 –0.9750
support0.9380 –0.9300 –0.9200



AUD AUD -突破关键阻力

澳元周四维持走高，此前美国财长努钦称美元贬值对美国有利，促使全球投机客抛售美元。澳元兑美元触及0.81上方四个月高位。此前美国财长努钦(StevenMnuchin)放弃强势美元立场，对美元贬值表示欢迎，打破了多年来的传统。

技术图表所见，预计当前阻力先参考去年9Monthly high0.8125，下一级则指向0.83水平。不过，要留意相对强弱指标及随机指数均已有初步掉头下跌迹象，或见澳元存在回调风险。预估下方支撑先看0.80及上周的三日低位0.7940水平，下一级预估在100Balance moving average0.7770Horizontal.

Related news
Australia11月经季节调整的零售销售较前月增加1.2%
Australia11月经季节调整后自住房屋融资较前月增加2.1%，投资房屋融资增加1.5%
Australia1monthWESTPAC-MIConsumer confidence index rising1.8%，至四年高点
Australia12月经季节调整后就业人口增加3.47ten thousand people
Australia12月经季节调整后失业率为5.5%
Australia12Increase in full-time employment after seasonal adjustment of menstruation1.51ten thousand people
Australia12月经季节调整后就业参与率为65.7%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance0.8125 –0.8300
support0.8000 –0.7940 –0.7770



NZD New Zealand dollars -升幅受制通胀数据

纽元周四回吐涨幅，此前出炉的数据显示该国通胀率远低于预期，从而打消了新西兰今年升息的预期。新西兰统计局周四公布的数据显示，第四季消费者物价指数(CPI)Up from the previous quarter0.1%，低于路透调查预估的上升0.4%。新西兰第四季消费者物价指数较上年同期上升1.6%。路透调查预估为上升1.9%。

纽元兑美元走势，技术图表所见，鉴于相对强弱指标及随机指数均已达至严重超买区域，估计纽元再而上升的动力将为有限。较近支持先会留意250Balance moving average0.7110。以去年11month17Daily low0.6781起始的累计涨幅计算，38.2%and50%的调整水平为0.7090and0.7030Expand to61.8%Then it is0.6970。至于向上阻力预估在200Weekly moving average0.7290及回看去年9Monthly high0.7435Horizontal.

Focus:
新西兰第四季消费者物价指数较前季上升0.1%, up from the same period last year1.6%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance0.7290 –0.7435
support0.7110 –0.7090 –0.7030 –0.6970



CAD Cad -险守趋向线支撑

美元兑加元近两周的多番探低亦是刚好止步于起延自去年9月的上升趋向线，由于相对强弱指标及随机指数均已掉头向上，同时，MACD与讯号线正处于交迭，有机会即将呈现黄金交叉，示意美元兑加元短期倾向展开反扑。预计上探首个阻力将为100Balance moving average position1.2585，汇价之前已曾冲击此指标，但未有闯过此区，如今再探此指标，若可一举突破，料更为巩固美元的反弹态势。若以最近一轮的累计下跌幅度计算，50%and61.8%的回调水平将分别看至1.2630and1.27水平。较大目标将指向200Balance moving average1.2840。下方支持回看上升趋向线1.2385，估计较大支撑则在1.22Horizontal.

Focus:
1month25day(four): Canada11Monthly retail sales rate‧Deducting the monthly retail sales rate of automobiles
1month26day(five): Canada12monthCPI‧Central Bank CoreCPI

Related news
Canada11Monthly wholesale trade increased compared to the previous month0.7%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance1.2585* –1.2630 –1.2700 –1.2840
support1.2385* –1.2200



CL 纽约期油 -油价再创高位

若果自2013year8Monthly high112.24to2016year2month29Daily low26.05USD,50%and61.8%The rebound level is69.15and79.32美元。下方支持则会先看9Balance moving average63.70and63.20美元，只要未有跌破位于63.20水平的上升趋向线，整体仍维持上升趋势。



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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)