Crossing the Sea2018year1month24day

Crossing the Sea

2018

year

1

month

24

day

Focus this week:
1month24day(Wednesday)
U.S.A11monthFHFA房屋价格
U.S.A11monthFHFAHouse Price Index
U.S.A1monthMarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value
U.S.A1monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value
U.S.A1monthMarkitService industryPMIinitial value
U.S.A12Monthly Housing Sales

1month25day(Thursday)
U.S.A12Monthly Building Permit Revision
U.S.A12Initial value of monthly commodity trade balance
U.S.A12Monthly wholesale inventory rate
Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
U.S.A12Monthly leading indicator monthly rate
U.S.A12Monthly sales of new houses

1month26day(Friday)
U.S.A12Monthly rate of durable goods orders
US Q4GDPInitial value of month on month annual rate
美国第四季最终销售
美国第四季消费者支出
US Q4GDP平减指数
US Q4 CorePCEprice index



Important economic data released today:   
17：00eurozone1monthMarkitManufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)initial value‧forecast60.3‧Previous value60.6
17：00eurozone1monthMarkitCIPS services PMI (PMI)initial value‧forecast56.4‧Previous value56.6
17：00eurozone1monthMarkitComprehensive Purchasing Manager Index(PMI)initial value‧forecast57.9‧Previous value58.1
17：30britain12Number of monthly claims for unemployment benefits‧Forecast increase0.54ten thousand people‧Previous value increase0.59ten thousand people
17：30UK as of11月三个月按国际劳工组织(ILO)Standard calculated unemployment rate‧forecast4.3%‧Previous value4.3%
17：30英国平均每周薪资所得年率‧forecast2.5%‧Previous value2.5%
17：30Average weekly salary income in the UK(不包括奖金)the annual rate‧forecast2.3%‧Previous value2.3%
20：00美国前周抵押贷款市场指数‧Previous value406.3
20：00美国前周抵押贷款再融资指数‧Previous value1,314.00
22：00U.S.A11Federal Housing Finance Bureau(FHFA)Monthly rate of housing prices‧Previous value0.5%
22：00U.S.A11Federal Housing Finance Bureau(FHFA)Annual rate of housing prices‧Previous value6.6%
22：00U.S.A11Federal Housing Finance Bureau(FHFA)House Price Index‧Previous value254.7
22：45U.S.A1monthMarkitComprehensive Purchasing Manager Index(PMI)initial value‧Previous value54.1
22：45U.S.A1monthMarkitManufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)initial value‧forecast55.0‧Previous value55.1
22：45U.S.A1monthMarkitCIPS services PMI (PMI)initial value‧forecast54.0‧Previous value53.7
23：00U.S.A12Annual sales rate of monthly completed houses‧forecast57010000 households‧Previous value58110000 households
23：00U.S.A12月成屋销售月率‧forecast-2.2%‧Previous value5.6%



News of the Week
Monday/美国国会通过拨款协议，政府关门的局面即将结束
IMF上调今明两年全球经济增长预估，因美国减税料提振投资

Tuesday/Richmond Federal Reserve Bank1The monthly comprehensive manufacturing index is positive14



1month23day
LondongoldMorning order price:1337.10
London gold afternoon fixing price:1333.40


Today's Introduction
美国参议院以85-12的投票结果确认鲍威尔担任美联储主席

美国参议院周二以85-12的投票结果，确认支持鲍威尔担任美联储主席，或可确保货币政策的连续性。鲍威尔是一名律师，曾经在投行任职，自2012年以来任美联储理事。



XAU London Gold -金价冲高，受美元走软及贸易战忧虑支撑

金价周三持稳于四个月高位附近，因美元跌至三年新低，另外对可能爆发贸易战的担忧引发一些避险交易。金价周三升见至1347美元上方。美元指数跌至2014year12month31日以来最低，受到新一轮的投机性抛盘打压。

美元走势方面，图表可见美元指数上周低位险守着90这个重要心理，但需慎防本周若此关失守，或会再掀起新一轮下跌，目标指向200Monthly average line88.30as well as87.60。阻力则会瞩目于上周高位91，正为去年9月低位所处位置，至1month12日美指踏破此区，上周之反扑亦正正受限于此，若果后市可失而复得，则有望美元暂为摆脱近月颓势。以近一浪的累积跌幅计算，38.2%and50%The rebound level will see92.05and92.65Expand to61.8%Then it is93.25. Additionally,100Balance moving average93.10亦为一重要阻力参考。

黄金走势而言，上周一及周三亦见金价涨至1344美元附近水平，在本周三再度上探下终见突破。预估延伸目标在1350Even last year9Monthly high1357.50美元，进一步看至1361and1375。短期图表见，下方支撑料为1338and1327Horizontal.

London Gold2018year1month24day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1338 –1350
Resistance level:1361– 1375
Support bit:1327–1316

SPDR GoldTrustGold holdings:
1month8Day -834.86ton
1month9Day -831.91ton
1month10Day -828.96ton
1month11Day -828.96ton
1month12Day -828.96ton
1month15Day -828.96ton
1month16Day -828.96ton
1month17Day -828.96ton
1month18Day -840.76ton
1month19Day -846.67ton
1month22Day -846.67ton
1month23Day -849.32ton

2Monthly goldfuturesDue date:2month26day
2Monthly goldoptionDue date:1month25day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Data source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2017year12month)

Global:33604.1ton (+104.5ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3373.6ton (-0.1ton)
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.9ton
China(6)：1842.6ton
Russia(7)：1801.2ton (+22.3ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver -银价续处盘整

伦敦白银方面，当前向上阻力先会参考17.35This area extends from2016year7Monthly high21.11的下降趋向线位置，可明确上破此区或可见银价有力继续冲高，目标可参考10month16Daily high17.46美元；较大阻力估计为18.00Even last year9Monthly high18.21美元。下方支持料为16.90and16.50Horizontal.

London Silver2018year1month24day
Predicting early wave amplitude:16.90 –17.40
Resistance level:17.80–18.20
Support bit:16.50–16.30

iSharesSilver TrustSilver holdings:
1month8Day - 9877.69ton
1month9Day - 9877.69ton
1month10Day - 9839.55ton
1month11Day - 9839.55ton
1month12Day - 9839.55ton
1month15Day - 9839.55ton
1month16Day - 9839.55ton
1month17Day - 9839.55ton
1month18Day - 9813.15ton
1month19Day - 9813.15ton
1month22Day - 9772.08ton
1month23Day - 9736.88ton



EUR euro -触及三年高位

美元兑一篮子主要货币周三跌至三年低位，随着全球主要央行迈向削减刺激措施之路，对美元收益率优势将开始减弱的疑虑令美元承压。美元指数跌破90.00大关，为2014year12月以来首见。美元全面下跌，欧元兑美元触及三年新高。欧元兑美元一度涨至1.2335USD, for2014year12月以来最高。欧盟执委会周二公布的数据显示，欧元区1月消费者信心指数升幅远超预期，这协助支持欧元。投资者亦聚焦于欧洲央行周四会议，以获得货币政策前景的线索。欧元今年上涨，因益发看好经济走强将促使欧洲央行暗示会比先前预测更快地结束数年来的刺激经济举措。

欧元兑美元自上周处于高位区间横盘，未有显著延续去年第四季以来的涨势；而相对强弱指标及随机指数已见出现回落，估计若后市跌破上周四低位1.2163，则欧元更倾向开展回吐。较大支持料为1.2090and25Balance moving average1.2040水，关键在1.1910水平。预计向上阻力在200Monthly average line1.2430and1.25水平，另外，延伸自2008year7月的下降趋向线则位于1.27水平，为后市又一瞩目参考。

Focus:
1month24day(three): France1monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value‧MarkitService industryPMIinitial value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value‧
Germany1monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value‧MarkitService industryPMIinitial value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value‧
eurozone1monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value‧MarkitService industryPMIinitial value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value
1month25day(four): Germany2monthGFKConsumer confidence index‧Germany1monthIfoEnterprise Prosperity Index‧IfoEnterprise Status Index‧IfoEnterprise Expectation Index‧Italy12Initial value of monthly non EU trade balance‧Italy11Monthly industrial orders‧Industrial sales‧eurozone1月欧洲央行再融资利率‧欧洲央行存款利率
1month26day(five): France1Monthly Enterprise Prosperity Index‧Consumer confidence index‧eurozone12monthM3Supply of goods‧M3For household loans

Related news
eurozone1月消费者信心指数跳升至正1.3
Germany1monthZEW经济景气指数升至正20.4

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance1.2430 –1.2500 –1.2700
support1.2163 –1.2090 –1.2040 –1.1910



JPY yen -美元指数跌至三年低位

美元兑一篮子货币继续下跌至三年新低。美元指数跌破90, for2014year12月以来首见。美元兑日圆周三触及四个月低点，因市场担心随着主要央行走向撤出大规模刺激措施，美元的收益率优势将被削弱。美元兑日圆跌破110关口，为四个月来首次。日圆最近几周上扬，日本央行本月初在市场操作中削减较长期公债购买规模，激发对其终将退出大幅刺激举措的臆测。尽管日本央行总裁黑田东彦周二强调，“重要的是日本央行有耐心地持续推动强力货币宽松”，但亦足以减弱投资者的揣测。美元兑日圆本月以来已经下滑近2.5%，或将录得2017year1月以来的最大月线跌幅。

美元兑日圆方面，图表所见，由去年九月至今，美元兑日圆走势形成了一组双顶型态，颈线位置为11month27Daily low110.83，至本周一已见明确跌破此区，预料美元后市将迎来更猛烈的下滑。若果以自去年九月低位至十一月高位的累计涨幅计算，61.8%的回吐幅度为110.15水平。另外，由2016年第三季引伸的上升趋向线目前位于100关口，故此区亦为失守将是美元兑日圆开展跌势的又一左证。其后较具意义的支持则会参考为去年9Monthly low107.31To the next level200Monthly average line105.80水平。向上阻力预估在250Balance moving average111.90及下降趋向线位置113.20Horizontal.

Focus:
1month24day(three): Japan12Monthly export annual rate‧Annual import rate‧trade balance‧Japan1Month Day Meridian/MarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value
1month25day(four)：日本前周日本投资外国债券‧前周外资投资日股
1month26day(five): Japan12monthCPI

Related news
日本央行维持政策不变，对通胀前景乐观程度略上升
日本央行预计2017/18财年实质GDPMaterial growth1.9%, and10月预估一致
Japan1Monthly manufacturing industryPMIInitial value increased to54.4，为近四年来最高
Japan12月出口较上年同期增加9.3%
Japan12Monthly imports increased compared to the same period last year14.9%
Japan12The monthly trade surplus is3590Billion yen

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance111.90 –113.20
support110.83 –110.15 –107.31



GBP pound -升至英退公投以来最高

英镑兑美元上涨至1.4080美元上方，稍早曾触及1.4049。有关英国可能达成有利的退欧协议的乐观情绪不断增强，支撑英镑近期走高。英国央行的英镑贸易加权指数也大幅上涨，曾触及为八个月高位。周五公布的数据显示，最近一周，投机客增持英镑凈多仓，规模升至三年半最高水平，因认为英退谈判目前进展相对顺利，且英国经济表现好于部分人之前的预期。

技术图表见，相对强弱指标及随机指数均已于超买区域横盘，英镑兑美元可能会先作一段调整，下方支持先看1.3780and1.3650The most important support is25Balance moving average1.36，只有守住此区，才见英镑的上升型态未有改变。至于向上阻力位预估在1.41，进一步可参考1.42and200Weekly moving average1.4410Horizontal.

Focus:
1month23day(two): UK12monthPSNB‧PSNCR‧britain1monthCBITotal industrial order difference
1month24day(three): UK12Number of monthly claims for unemployment benefits‧UK as of11Three months in a monthILOStandard calculated unemployment rate‧英国平均每周薪资所得年率‧平均每周薪资所得(不包括奖金)the annual rate
1month25day(four): UK12monthUK FINANCENumber of approved mortgage loans‧britain1monthCBIRetail sales difference
1month26day(five): UK Season 4GDPinitial value

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance1.4100 –1.4200 –1.4420
support1.3780 –1.3650 –1.3600*



CHF Swiss franc -美元呈反弹倾向

美元兑瑞郎走势，图表见相对强弱指标及随机指数有回升迹象，示意汇价短期或见有反弹空间。下方支撑估计在0.9560and0.9510水平，之后参考去年9month8Daily low0.9419。向上阻力预估为200Balance moving average0.9770and0.9850Horizontal.

Focus:
1month18day(four)Switzerland12Monthly Producer/Import prices

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance0.9770 –0.9850
support0.9560 –0.9510 –0.9419



AUD AUD -特朗普引燃贸易战忧虑，澳元徘徊在0.80Gateway

技术图表所见，预计当前阻力先参考200Monthly average line0.8060And last year9Monthly high0.8125，下一级则指向0.83水平。不过，要留意相对强弱指标及随机指数均已有初步掉头下跌迹象，或见澳元存在回调风险，尤其过去几个交易日，澳元仍在0.80关口边缘步履蹒跚，尚未能作出明确突破。预估下方支撑先看上周的三日低位0.7940水平，失守此区将更为确认澳元兑美元的回跌态势，下一级预估在100Balance moving average0.7770as well as250平均线0.77Horizontal.

Related news
Australia11月经季节调整的零售销售较前月增加1.2%
Australia11月经季节调整后自住房屋融资较前月增加2.1%，投资房屋融资增加1.5%
Australia1monthWESTPAC-MIConsumer confidence index rising1.8%，至四年高点
Australia12月经季节调整后就业人口增加3.47ten thousand people
Australia12月经季节调整后失业率为5.5%
Australia12Increase in full-time employment after seasonal adjustment of menstruation1.51ten thousand people
Australia12月经季节调整后就业参与率为65.7%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance0.8060 –0.8125 –0.8300
support0.7940 –0.7770 –0.7700



NZD New Zealand dollars -触及四个月高位

纽元周三创下四个月新高，受到全球风险偏好升温、乳品价格近期上涨的支撑。纽元周四面临一项国内障碍，届时该国将发布第四季消费者物价数据。

纽元兑美元走势，技术图表所见，鉴于相对强弱指标及随机指数均已达至严重超买区域，估计纽元再而上升的动力将为有限。较近支持先会留意250Balance moving average0.7110。以去年11month17Daily low0.6781起始的累计涨幅计算，38.2%and50%的调整水平为0.7090and0.7030Expand to61.8%Then it is0.6970。至于向上阻力预估在200Weekly moving average0.7290及回看去年9Monthly high0.7435Horizontal.

Related news
1month25day(four)：新西兰第四季CPI

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance0.7290 –0.7435
support0.7110 –0.7090 –0.7030 –0.6970



CAD Cad -险守趋向线支撑

美元兑加元近两周的多番探低亦是刚好止步于起延自去年9月的上升趋向线，由于相对强弱指标及随机指数均已掉头向上，同时，MACD与讯号线正处于交迭，有机会即将呈现黄金交叉，示意美元兑加元短期倾向展开反扑。预计上探首个阻力将为100Balance moving average position1.2585，汇价之前已曾冲击此指标，但未有闯过此区，如今再探此指标，若可一举突破，料更为巩固美元的反弹态势。若以最近一轮的累计下跌幅度计算，50%and61.8%的回调水平将分别看至1.2630and1.27水平。较大目标将指向200Balance moving average1.2840。下方支持回看上升趋向线1.2385，估计较大支撑则在1.22Horizontal.

Focus:
1month25day(four): Canada11Monthly retail sales rate‧Deducting the monthly retail sales rate of automobiles
1month26day(five): Canada12monthCPI‧Central Bank CoreCPI

Related news
Canada11Monthly wholesale trade increased compared to the previous month0.7%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance1.2585* –1.2630 –1.2700 –1.2840
support1.2385* –1.2200



CL 纽约期油 -关注库存数据

预计油价上探的首要阻力为200Monthly average line65.10美元，若果自2013year8Monthly high112.24to2016year2month29Daily low26.05USD,50%and61.8%The rebound level is69.15and79.32美元。下方支持则会先看9Balance moving average63.70and63.20美元，只要未有跌破位于63.20水平的上升趋向线，整体仍维持上升趋势。



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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)