Crossing the Sea2018year1month22day

Crossing the Sea

2018

year

1

month

22

day

Focus this week:
1month22day(Monday)
U.S.A12Monthly National Activity Index

1month23day(Tuesday)
U.S.A1Monthly Richmond Fed Composite Manufacturing Index

1month24day(Wednesday)
美国前周抵押贷款市场指数
美国前周抵押贷款再融资指数
U.S.A11monthFHFA房屋价格
U.S.A11monthFHFAHouse Price Index
U.S.A1monthMarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value
U.S.A1monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value
U.S.A1monthMarkitService industryPMIinitial value
U.S.A12Monthly Housing Sales

1month25day(Thursday)
U.S.A12Monthly Building Permit Revision
U.S.A12Initial value of monthly commodity trade balance
U.S.A12Monthly wholesale inventory rate
Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
Four week average of initial jobless claims in the United States
Number of Americans reapplying for unemployment benefits
U.S.A12Monthly leading indicator monthly rate
U.S.A12Monthly sales of new houses

1month26day(Friday)
U.S.A12Monthly rate of durable goods orders
U.S.A12月扣除运输的耐久财订单月率
U.S.A12月扣除国防的耐久财订单月率
U.S.A12Monthly deduction of non defense capital financial orders for aircraft
US Q4GDPInitial value of month on month annual rate
美国第四季最终销售
美国第四季消费者支出
US Q4GDP平减指数
US Q4 CorePCEprice index



Important economic data released today:   
07：00Japan1Monthly Reuters Short term Manufacturing Prosperity Index‧Front value positive27
21：30U.S.A12Monthly National Activity Index‧Front value positive0.15
21：30Canada11Monthly wholesale trade rate‧Previous value1.50%



1month19day
LondongoldMorning order price:1335.80
London gold afternoon fixing price:1334.95



XAU London Gold -金价呈双顶回落

美元自年初以来延续着去年第四季的跌势，美元指数今年以来已下跌近2%，上周曾一度跌至90.10, for2014year12月以来最低；主要由于市场预期除美联储之外，其他央行也将寻求结束为应对全球金融危机及经济衰退而采取的超低、甚至负利率的政策。美元走贬的另一个基本因素是，包括主权财富基金和央行在内的全球投资者将更多资金配置到其它货币，将持仓多元化。根据美国财政部数据，中国和日本这两个美国最大债权国11月双双减持美国公债。根据国际货币基金组织(IMF)12月发布的一份报告，第三季全球央行在foreign exchange储备中进一步提高美元以外货币的比重。

市场将瞩目于海外利润的回流可否提振疲软的美元。苹果公司上周三表示，将把数千亿美元海外资金汇回美国，为此缴纳大约380亿美元税款，并在未来几年投资数百亿美元用于国内就业、制造业和数据中心。这一举动引发外界猜测，其他公司可能很快就会采取行动，将海外现金储备汇回国内，而美元指数亦在周三一度升见全周高位91.01。不过，其后对美国政府可能停摆的担忧，又把美元重新打压至90关口附近。众议院周四通过了一项政府融资议案，让政府持续运作至2month16日；但该议案仍需获得参议院的批准，但结果仍存在很大的不确定性，因美国总统特朗普称，议案中不应该包括将儿童健康保险计划(CHIP)的拨款延长六年。

伦敦黄金方面，金价周五上涨，因围绕美国政府可能停摆的担忧拖累美元走软，但金价仍录得六周以来的首个周线下跌。金价周四则触及1month12The lowest level since the beginning of the day1323.70美元，上周累计下跌0.5%, for12月初以来的最差周线表现。

技术走势而言，上周一及周三亦见金价涨至1344美元附近水平，但在无法再向上突破的情况下，显著回落，并呈现着一组小型双顶，颈线在1331To13美元的幅度计算，延伸目标先看至1318美元。日线图亦见MACD与讯号线正处交迭，有机会即将呈现利淡交叉，示意着回调之倾向。若果由12month12Daily low1235.92至目前高位的累计涨幅计算，50%的调整为1290USD,61.8%Will reach1277US dollars. Estimated resistance above1338The next level material is100Monthly average line1343To the extent that1350Horizontal.

London Gold2018year1month22 –26day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1320 –1343
Resistance level:1354–1375 –1395
Support bit:1311–1290 –1265

London Gold2018year1month22day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1324 –1337
Resistance level:1344–1357
Support bit:1318–1307

SPDR GoldTrustGold holdings:
12month26Day -837.50ton
12month27Day -837.50ton
12month28Day -837.50ton
12month29Day -837.50ton
1month2Day -836.32ton
1month3Day -836.32ton
1month4Day -836.04ton
1month5Day -834.86ton
1month8Day -834.86ton
1month9Day -831.91ton
1month10Day -828.96ton
1month11Day -828.96ton
1month12Day -828.96ton
1month15Day -828.96ton
1month16Day -828.96ton
1month17Day -828.96ton
1month18Day -840.76ton
1month19Day -846.67ton

2Monthly goldfuturesDue date:2month26day
2Monthly goldoptionDue date:1month25day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Data source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2017year12month)

Global:33604.1ton (+104.5ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3373.6ton (-0.1ton)
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.9ton
China(6)：1842.6ton
Russia(7)：1801.2ton (+22.3ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver -银价碰及三角顶部后回落

伦敦白银方面，当前向上阻力先会参考17.10To the next level17.35This area extends from2016year7Monthly high21.11的下降趋向线位置，可明确上破此区或可见银价有力继续冲高，目标可参考10month16Daily high17.46美元；较大阻力估计为18.00Even last year9Monthly high18.21US dollars. Additionally,RSI及险机指数亦与价位出现背驰迹象，银价回调风险似乎正在加大。以这轮的累计升幅计算，38.2%and50%的回调水平为16.71and16.49Expand to61.8%Then in the16.28USD.

London Silver2018year1month22 –26day
Predicting early wave amplitude:16.60 –17.30
Resistance level:17.70–18.20 –18.50
Support bit:16.40–15.90 –15.50

London Silver2018year1month22day
Predicting early wave amplitude:16.60 –17.30
Resistance level:17.60–17.70
Support bit:16.40–16.00

iSharesSilver TrustSilver holdings:
1month2Day - 9972.70ton
1month3Day - 9968.64ton
1month4Day - 9904.09ton
1month5Day - 9904.09ton
1month8Day - 9877.69ton
1month9Day - 9877.69ton
1month10Day - 9839.55ton
1month11Day - 9839.55ton
1month12Day - 9839.55ton
1month15Day - 9839.55ton
1month16Day - 9839.55ton
1month17Day - 9839.55ton
1month18Day - 9813.15ton
1month19Day - 9813.15ton



EUR euro -欧洲央行官员讲话拖累欧元从三年峰值下滑

欧元兑美元上周早段承压，鉴于此前连日未能冲破去年9Monthly high1.2092，引发了上周初的下跌，而之后出现的反扑，又一举突破了此关卡，若本周仍可稳居于此区之上，则欧元兑美元在中短期而言可望继续保持强势。预计向上较大目标在200Monthly average line1.2430and1.25水平，另外，延伸自2008year7月的下降趋向线则位于1.27水平，为后市又一瞩目参考。下方支持料为1.2090and1.20关口，关键将直指25Balance moving average1.1950Horizontal.

Focus:
1month23day(two): Germany1monthZEWEconomic Sentiment Index‧ZEWEconomic Status Index‧eurozone1Initial value of monthly consumer confidence index
1month24day(three): France1monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value‧MarkitService industryPMIinitial value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value‧
Germany1monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value‧MarkitService industryPMIinitial value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value‧
eurozone1monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value‧MarkitService industryPMIinitial value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value
1month25day(four): Germany2monthGFKConsumer confidence index‧Germany1monthIfoEnterprise Prosperity Index‧IfoEnterprise Status Index‧IfoEnterprise Expectation Index‧Italy12Initial value of monthly non EU trade balance‧Italy11Monthly industrial orders‧Industrial sales‧eurozone1月欧洲央行再融资利率‧欧洲央行存款利率
1month26day(five): France1Monthly Enterprise Prosperity Index‧Consumer confidence index‧eurozone12monthM3Supply of goods‧M3For household loans

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance1.2180 –1.2300 –1.2430
support1.2000 –1.1920 –1.1870* –1.1810



JPY yen -双顶破颈线，美元弱势延展

美元兑日圆方面，图表所见，由去年九月至今，美元兑日圆走势形成了一组双顶型态，颈线位置为11month27Daily low110.83，至本周一已见明确跌破此区，预料美元后市将迎来更猛烈的下滑。若果以自去年九月低位至十一月高位的累计涨幅计算，61.8%的回吐幅度为110.15水平。另外，由2016年第三季引伸的上升趋向线目前位于100关口，故此区亦为失守将是美元兑日圆开展跌势的又一左证。其后较具意义的支持则会参考为去年9Monthly low107.31To the next level200Monthly average line105.80水平。向上阻力预估在250Balance moving average111.90及下降趋向线位置113.20Horizontal.

Focus:
1month22day(one): Japan1Monthly Reuters Short term Manufacturing Prosperity Index
1month23day(two)：日本央行利率决定
1month24day(three): Japan12Monthly export annual rate‧Annual import rate‧trade balance‧Japan1Month Day Meridian/MarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value
1month25day(four)：日本前周日本投资外国债券‧前周外资投资日股
1month26day(five): Japan12monthCPI

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance111.90 –113.20
support110.83 – 110.15 –107.31



GBP pound -涨势暂歇，关注英国退欧情势发展

技术图表见，相对强弱指标及随机指数均已于超买区域横盘，英镑兑美元可能会先作一段调整，下方支持先看1.3650，较重要支持在一短期上升趋向线1.35，此区同时为25天平均线位置，只有守住此区，才见英镑的上升型态未有改变。至于向上阻力位预估在1.3850and1.40关口，进一步可参考200Weekly moving average1.4410Horizontal.

Focus:
1month23day(two): UK12monthPSNB‧PSNCR‧britain1monthCBITotal industrial order difference
1month24day(three): UK12Number of monthly claims for unemployment benefits‧UK as of11Three months in a monthILOStandard calculated unemployment rate‧英国平均每周薪资所得年率‧平均每周薪资所得(不包括奖金)the annual rate
1month25day(four): UK12monthUK FINANCENumber of approved mortgage loans‧britain1monthCBIRetail sales difference
1month26day(five): UK Season 4GDPinitial value

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance1.3800 –1.4000 –1.4420
support1.3650 –1.3480 –1.3370



CHF Swiss franc -美元呈反弹倾向

美元兑瑞郎走势，图表见相对强弱指标及随机指数有回升迹象，示意汇价短期或见有反弹空间。下方支撑估计在0.9560and0.9510水平，之后参考去年9month8Daily low0.9419。向上阻力预估为200Balance moving average0.9770and0.9850Horizontal.

Focus:
1month18day(four)Switzerland12Monthly Producer/Import prices

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance0.9770 –0.9850
support0.9560 –0.9510 –0.9419



AUD AUD -Impact0.80Gateway

澳元兑美元方面，上周终见再破0.80关口，因为对全球经济的乐观情绪支撑风险资产，美元则受到打压。澳元兑美元升见至0.8030上方的四个月高位。市场人气亦受到周四澳洲公布强劲就业数据的提振，该数据令市场将澳洲央行升息时间的预期提前。澳洲统计局公布，12月经季节调整后就业人口增加3.47万人，远远高于路透调查预估的增加9,000人。但失业率因有更多人找工作而小幅上升，从5.4%Ascend to5.5%。就业参与率为65.7%, creating2011year1月以来的最高，因更多的女性进入职场。大宗商品价格也为澳元带来扶助。

技术图表所见，预计当前阻力先参考200Monthly average line0.8060And last year9Monthly high0.8125，下一级则指向0.83水平。不过，要留意相对强弱指标及随机指数均已有初步掉头下跌迹象，或见澳元存在回调风险。下方支撑先看本周的三日低位0.7940水平，失守此区将更为确认澳元的回跌态势，下一级预估在100Balance moving average0.7770as well as250平均线0.77Horizontal.

Related news
Australia11月经季节调整的零售销售较前月增加1.2%
Australia11月经季节调整后自住房屋融资较前月增加2.1%，投资房屋融资增加1.5%
Australia1monthWESTPAC-MIConsumer confidence index rising1.8%，至四年高点
Australia12月经季节调整后就业人口增加3.47ten thousand people
Australia12月经季节调整后失业率为5.5%
Australia12Increase in full-time employment after seasonal adjustment of menstruation1.51ten thousand people
Australia12月经季节调整后就业参与率为65.7%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance0.8000 –0.8125
support0.7770 –0.7680



NZD New Zealand dollars -呈超买迹象

纽元兑美元走势，技术图表所见，鉴于相对强弱指标及随机指数均已达至严重超买区域，估计纽元再而上升的动力将为有限。较近支持先会留意250Balance moving average0.7110。以去年11month17Daily low0.6781起始的累计涨幅计算，38.2%and50%的调整水平为0.7090and0.7030Expand to61.8%Then it is0.6970。至于向上阻力预估在200Weekly moving average0.7290及回看去年9Monthly high0.7435Horizontal.

Related news
1month25day(four)：新西兰第四季CPI

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance0.7290 –0.7435
support0.7110 –0.7090 –0.7030 –0.6970



CAD Cad -加拿大央行一如预期升息，NAFTA阴云令声明基调偏鸽派

美元兑加元周三跌见至1.2368，周五则低见1.2395，同时是刚好止步于起延自去年9月的上升趋向线，由于相对强弱指标及随机指数均已掉头向上，同时，MACD与讯号线正处于交迭，有机会即将呈现黄金交叉，示意美元兑加元短期倾向展开反扑。预计上探首个阻力将为100Balance moving average position1.2585，上周汇价已曾冲击此指标，但未有闯过此区，如今再探此指标，若可一举突破，料更为巩固美元的反弹态势。若以最近一轮的累计下跌幅度计算，50%and61.8%的回调水平将分别看至1.2630and1.27水平。较大目标将指向200Balance moving average1.2840。下方支持回看上升趋向线1.2370，估计较大支撑则在1.22Horizontal.

Focus:
1month22day(one): Canada11Monthly wholesale trade rate
1month25day(four): Canada11Monthly retail sales rate‧Deducting the monthly retail sales rate of automobiles
1month26day(five): Canada12monthCPI‧Central Bank CoreCPI

Related news
Canada12月房价指数同比升9.1%，房屋销售较上月增加4.5%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance1.2550 –1.2680 –1.2860 –1.2920
support1.2385 –1.2200



CL 纽约期油 -关注美国crude oil周度库存数据

预计油价上探的首要阻力为200Monthly average line65.10美元，若果自2013year8Monthly high112.24to2016year2month29Daily low26.05USD,50%and61.8%The rebound level is69.15and79.32美元。下方支持则会先看63and9Balance moving average62.40美元，只要未有跌破位于63水平的上升趋向线，整体仍维持上升趋势。





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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)