NFX品汇国际：美政府可能关门美元反弹回落

Market Review
　　在周四的foreign exchange市场上，美元呈反弹后回落整理的走势，美元指数最高上涨到91.01, 最低下跌到90.41, closing at90.50。欧美最高上涨到1.22640，最低下跌到1.21650, closing at1.22460。
　　据福克斯新闻，白宫消息人士称，政府关门的几率为50%。在特朗普和麦康奈尔有关政府停摆可能性的消息传来之后，美元指数短线下挫约20点，刷新日低至90.41，交易商纷纷买入欧元、日元和英镑等其他主要货币。欧元兑美元徘徊在略低于三年峰值的水准。
　　据两位熟悉内情的消息人士透露，麦康奈尔打算在本周末举行会议，目标是将政府突然关门归咎于10位民主党议员并让他们成为政府关闭的代言人。考虑到他们控制着白宫和国会，这一策略对共和党来说是有风险的。如果政府资金在周五到期，麦康奈尔将使参议院继续运转，并试图让民主党人再次为儿童医疗保健以及政府支出法案进行投票。
　　自特朗普就职以来的一年，美元指数已经下跌了10%。美元走软有助于美国出口，并提高美国企业的海外收益。特朗普的言论可能已经粉碎了许多美元多头头寸，但这并不是美元汇率落后的原因，其目前正处于3年来的低点。布朗兄弟哈里曼固定收益策略主管Marc Chandler及美银美林策略师们表示，他们预计美元将开始走强。一个警告是，如果特朗普寻求贸易保护主义策略或发动贸易战，将使美元兑欧元和日元走低。
从技术上来看,美指周四反弹受阻在91.00之下，回调在90.40之上受到brace, closing at90.50,意味着美元短线可能进入90.00—91.00区间震荡整理的走势。
[Trading Strategy]
US dollar index: can be found in90.90—90.30Buying at the lower limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit30Point stop loss, the target is at the upper limit of the range.
Euro/USD: can be used in1.22850---1.21850Sell at the upper limit of the range, effectively breaking through400Point stop loss, with the target at the lower limit of the range.
GBP/USD: can be used in1.39400---1.38300Buying at the lower limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit400Point stop loss, the target is at the upper limit of the range.
USD/Ruilang: You can find0.96400---0.95500区间下限买入，有效破位400Stop loss at a single point, with the target at the upper limit of the range.
USD/Japanese yen: can be used in111.400---110.600Buying at the lower limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit400Stop loss at a single point, with the target at the upper limit of the range.
AUD/USD: can be used in0.80250---0.79550Sell at the upper limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit300Point stop loss, with the target at the lower limit of the range.
USD/CAD: Can be used in1.24700---1.24000Buying at the lower limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit300Stop loss at a single point, with the target at the upper limit of the range.
　　gold: Can be found in the1334.00—1324.00Sell at the upper limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit4USD stop loss, targeting the lower limit of the range.
白银：可以在17.100—16.850Sell at the upper limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit0.150USD stop loss, targeting the lower limit of the range.
Today's Key Financial Data and Events
① 07:05 Federal Reserve2018yearFOMC票委梅斯特在美国经济教育委员会就货币政策发表讲话
② 15:00 Germany12monthPPIMonthly rate
③ 17:00 eurozone11月季调后经常帐、IEAMonthly announcementcrude oil市场报告
④ 17:30 britain12Monthly retail sales rate after quarterly adjustment
⑤ 21:45 Federal Reserve2018年票委博斯蒂克参加主题为“有关经济的思考”的非正式讨论
⑥ 23:00 U.S.A1Initial monthly University of Michigan consumer confidence index
⑦ The next day02:00 From the United States to1month19日当周石油钻井总数、美联储理事夸尔斯就“银行监管”发表讲话
⑧ The next day02:30 2018yearFOMC票委威廉姆斯发表讲话，主题为“展望湾区的未来”