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品汇国际:美联储或少于三次加息支撑美元反弹延续

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Market Review
  在周二的foreign exchange市场上,美元呈继续反弹的走势,美元指数最高上涨到92.64, 最低下跌到92.21, closing at92.53。欧美最高上涨到1.19750,最低下跌到1.19160, closing at1.19320
  周二美元指数持续反弹,刷新逾10日高位至92.64,不过目前偏空趋势仍未真正逆转。在美元回暖之际,一则消息令日元多头重见曙光,日元逆势攀升。针对美元走势,美元疲态似乎将继续下去,因交易水平会指向下行趋势。眼下,美元指数正位于93这一长期支撑位下方,而如进一步跌穿91这一潜在支撑水平,美元恐一路暴跌至85。
  周二美国无重要经济数据出炉。美联储方面,明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利日内最新表示,当前主要的担忧在于通胀持续过低,通胀过低比过高问题更大。他希望维持利率在低位,以令薪资增长以及通胀回到2%的水平。最近几天,投资者从美联储官员讲话中听到了更多的消息。亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克周一表示,美联储应该继续提高短期利率,但可能会比去年放缓。旧金山联储主席威廉姆斯上周六表示,今年将进行3次升息,称已经稳固的经济将从共和党的税收改革中得到提振。此外,克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特上周五表示,美国经济强劲和低失业率将为2018Annual interest rate hike4次提供理由。
从技术上来看,美指周二回调在92.20之上受到brace,但反弹受阻在92.65之下,收盘在92.53,意味着美元短线回调后有可能继续保持反弹的走势。如果美指今天回调在92.30之上受到brace,后市反弹的目标将会指向92.70—92.90。
[Trading Strategy]
US dollar index: can be found in92.90—92.30Buying at the lower limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit30Point stop loss, the target is at the upper limit of the range.
Euro/USD: can be used in1.19650---1.18850Sell at the upper limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit400Point stop loss, with the target at the lower limit of the range.
GBP/USD: can be used in1.35750---1.34650Sell at the upper limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit400Point stop loss, with the target at the lower limit of the range.
USD/Ruilang: You can find0.98900---0.97800间下限买入,有效破位400Stop loss at a single point, with the target at the upper limit of the range.
USD/Japanese yen: can be used in113.050---112.250Sell at the upper limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit400Stop loss at one point, with the target at the lower limit of the range.
AUD/USD: can be used in0.78550---0.77750Sell at the upper limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit400Point stop loss, with the target at the lower limit of the range.
USD/CAD: Can be used in1.25200---1.24100Buying at the lower limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit400Stop loss at a single point, with the target at the upper limit of the range.
  gold: Can be found in the1320.00—1303.00Sell at the upper limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit6USD stop loss, targeting the lower limit of the range.
白银:可以在17.150—16.800Sell at the upper limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit0.150USD stop loss, targeting the lower limit of the range.
Today's Key Financial Data and Events
① 09:30 China12monthCPIthe annual rate
② 15:45 France11Monthly industrial output rate
③ 17:30 britain11Monthly industrial output rate, UK11月制造业产出月率、英国11Commodity Trade Account after Monthly Adjustment
④ 21:30 U.S.A12Monthly Import Price Index Monthly Rate
⑤ 23:00 U.S.A11Monthly wholesale sales rate
⑥ 23:30 From the United States to1month5Day and WeekEIAcrude oilstock
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