Crossing the Sea2018year1month5day

Crossing the Sea

2018

year

1

month

5

day

Focus this week:
1month5day(Friday)
U.S.A12Monthly non-agricultural employment positions
U.S.A12Monthly private employment positions
U.S.A12Monthly manufacturing employment positions
U.S.A12月政府就业岗位
U.S.A12Monthly unemployment rate
U.S.A12月劳动人口就业参与率
U.S.A11Monthly International Trade Balance
U.S.A11Revised monthly commodity trade balance
U.S.A11Monthly factory order rate
U.S.A11Monthly Durable Goods Order Monthly Rate Revision
U.S.A12monthISMNon manufacturing index

1month8day(Monday)
U.S.A12Monthly employment trend index

1month9day(Tuesday)
U.S.A11Monthly Consumer Credit
U.S.A12monthNFIBSmall Business Confidence Index
U.S.A11monthJOLTSVacancies

1month10day(Wednesday)
U.S.A12Monthly import price rate
U.S.A12月出口物价月率
U.S.A11月批发库存月率修订
U.S.A11Monthly wholesale sales rate

1month11day(Thursday)
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
Number of Americans reapplying for unemployment benefits
U.S.A12Monthly final demandPPI
U.S.A12Monthly deduction of final demand for food and energyPPI
U.S.A12Monthly deduction of final demand for food, energy, and tradePPI

1month12day(Friday)
U.S.A12Monthly federal budget
U.S.A12monthCPI‧coreCPI
U.S.A12Monthly average monthly rate of actual income per week
U.S.A12Monthly retail sales rate
U.S.A12Monthly retail sales rate after deducting cars
U.S.A11Monthly commercial inventory rate



Important economic data released today:   
18：00Italy12Monthly consumer price index(CPI)Initial monthly rate‧Previous value-0.2%
18：00Italy12Monthly consumer price index(CPI)Annual rate initial value‧Previous value0.9%
18：00Italy12Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)Initial monthly rate‧Previous value-0.2%
18：00Italy12Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)Annual rate initial value‧Previous value1.0%
18：00eurozone12Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)Annual rate initial value‧forecast1.4%‧Previous value+1.5%
18：00eurozone12Monthly deduction of food and energyHICPAnnual rate initial value‧forecast+1.0%‧Previous value+1.1%
18：00eurozone11Monthly Producer Price Index(PPI)Monthly rate‧forecast0.3%‧Previous value0.4%
18：00eurozone11Monthly Producer Price Index(PPI)the annual rate‧forecast2.5%‧Previous value2.5%
21：30U.S.A12Monthly non-agricultural employment positions‧Forecast increase19.0Ten thousand‧Previous value increase22.8Ten thousand
21：30U.S.A12Monthly private employment positions‧Forecast increase18.5Ten thousand‧Previous value increase22.1Ten thousand
21：30U.S.A12Monthly manufacturing employment positions‧Forecast increase1.5Ten thousand‧Previous value increase3.1Ten thousand
21：30U.S.A12月政府就业岗位‧Previous value increase0.7Ten thousand
21：30U.S.A12Monthly unemployment rate‧forecast4.1%‧Previous value4.1%
21：30U.S.A12Monthly average hourly rate‧forecast0.3%‧Previous value0.2%
21：30U.S.A12月平均时薪年率‧forecast2.5%‧Previous value2.5%
21：30U.S.A12月平均每周工时‧forecast34.5‧Previous value34.5
21：30U.S.A12月劳动人口就业参与率‧Previous value62.7%
21：30U.S.A11Monthly International Trade Balance‧forecast495A deficit of one billion yuan‧Previous value487A deficit of one billion yuan
21：30U.S.A11Revised monthly commodity trade balance‧Previous value697A deficit of one billion yuan
21：30Canada12Monthly job changes‧Forecast increase0.10Ten thousand‧Previous value increase7.95Ten thousand
21：30Canada12Monthly unemployment rate‧forecast6.0%‧Previous value5.9%
21：30Canada12Monthly employment participation rate‧Previous value65.7%
21：30Canada11Monthly trade balance‧forecast12.0A deficit of one billion yuan‧Previous value14.7A deficit of one billion yuan
21：30Canada11Monthly export‧Previous value444.6Billion
21：30Canada11Monthly imports‧Previous value459.3Billion
23：00U.S.A11Monthly factory order rate‧forecast1.1%‧Previous value-0.1%
23：00U.S.A11月扣除运输的工厂订单月率‧Previous value0.8%
23：00U.S.A11Monthly Durable Goods Order Monthly Rate Revision‧Previous value+1.3%
23：00U.S.A11月扣除运输的耐久财订单月率‧Previous value-0.1%
23：00U.S.A11月扣除国防的耐久财订单月率‧Previous value1.0%
23：00U.S.A11Monthly deduction of non defense capital financial orders for aircraft‧Previous value-0.1%
23：00U.S.A12Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)Non manufacturing index‧forecast57.6‧Previous value57.4
23：00U.S.A12Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)企业活动分项指数61.0‧Previous value61.4
23：00U.S.A12Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)Employment sub index‧Previous value55.3
23：00U.S.A12Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)New order sub index‧Previous value58.7
23：00U.S.A12Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)Input price sub index‧Previous value60.7
23：00Canada12monthIveyPurchasing Manager Index(PMI)‧Previous value62.4
23：00Canada12Menstrual seasonally adjustedIveyPurchasing Manager Index(PMI)‧Previous value63.0



News of the Week
Wednesday/Federal Reserve12month12-13日会议记录：几乎所有有投票权和没有投票权的联储决策者均支持在12月升息；有两位反对升息
决策者认为未来升息路径将取决于通胀和财政刺激政策

U.S.A11Monthly construction expenditure increases0.8%，创纪录高位
American Supply Management Association(ISM)12The monthly manufacturing index is59.7

Thursday/Caixin China12Monthly service industryPMIAscend to53.9, for2014year8The highest level since the beginning of the month

圣路易斯联储总裁布拉德：美国税改或将提振增长且已推高股价
U.S.A12monthMARKITCIPS services PMI (PMI)The final value is53.7, for5Lowest since month
U.S.A12monthMARKITComprehensive Purchasing Manager Index(PMI)The final value is54.1
美国一周初请失业金人数为25.0ten thousand people
美国一周续请失业金人数为191.4ten thousand people
美国一周初请失业金人数四周均值为24.2ten thousand people
U.S.A12monthADP民间就业岗位增加25.0万个，月度增幅创下3The largest in the past month


1month4day
LondongoldMorning order price:1313.70
London gold afternoon fixing price:1314.50


Today's Introduction
朝鲜接受韩国1month9日正式会谈的提议

朝鲜和韩国将于下周举行两年多来的首次正式双边会谈。美国与韩国达成一致推迟联合军演几小时后，朝鲜当局接受了韩国的对话提议。韩国统一部称，朝鲜发来传真，同意1month9日举行会谈。朝韩双方上一次举行正式会谈还是在2015year12月。韩国统一部发言人白泰铉在例行记者会上称，会谈将在韩朝边界板门店举行，双方官员料将讨论平昌奥运会及改善双边关系相关事宜。白泰铉称，朝鲜要求以交换书面文件的方式就会谈的具体事宜进行深入磋商。出席会谈的双方官员尚待确定。白泰铉还表示，韩方坚持继续推动朝鲜去核化的立场不变，韩方在与美国及盟友保持密切沟通的同时，还会继续与朝方保持联络。金正恩在新年演说中抛出朝韩对话，并呼吁降低朝鲜半岛紧张情势，且提到朝鲜参加韩国平昌冬奥委会的可能性。不过金正恩不改对核武议题的态度，表示朝鲜将大规模生产核导弹做为军事部署之用，并再度警告称如果朝鲜受到威胁，他将发动核打击。美国总统特朗普与韩国总统文在寅周四晚宣布，将把通常在春季举行的年度大型军演，推迟到2月的冬奥委会之后举行。根据韩国总统府表示，特朗普称朝韩会谈的提议是“好事”，并将派遣一个包括特朗普家庭成员在内的高阶代表团出席韩国平昌冬奥委会。特朗普在稍早的推文中对于对话表示赞许，尽管他在本周再度出言抨击朝鲜领导人金正恩。        



XAU London Gold -获利了结打压金价回落

The world's largest gold listed trading fund(ETF)--SPDRGold Trust称，周四其黄金持仓量减少0.03%to836.04吨，周三为836.32吨。以盎司计，黄金持仓量从26,888,375.64盎司下滑至26,879,537ounce.

周四伦敦黄金曾触及9month15日以来最高水平1,325.86美元，受美元走软提振。黄金料将录得连续第四个周线涨幅，本周迄今上涨1.5%。美国民间就业服务机构ADP EmployerServicesOn Thursday, it was stated that,12月美国民间企业新增25万个工作岗位，月度增幅创下3月以来最高。路透调查访问的分析师预测增加19万个岗位。投资者目前关注周五的美国非农就业报告，预计美国12Monthly addition of non-agricultural employment positions19Ten thousand.

黄金走势而言，RSI及随机指数亦于超买区域有着初步的掉头迹象，需开始警戒着金价即将有回吐风险。下方支持料为1312and1298美元。若果由12month12Daily low1235.92至目前高位1321.33美元的累计涨幅85美元计算，38.2%and50%的调整为1291and1281USD,61.8%Then it is1270。上方阻力预估在1334，关键料为100Monthly average line1340To the extent that1350Horizontal.

London Gold2018year1month5day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1319 –1334
Resistance level:1340–1350 –1360
Support bit:1312–1298 –1279

SPDR GoldTrustGold holdings:
12month11Day -842.81ton
12month12Day -842.81ton
12month13Day -844.29ton
12month14Day -844.29ton
12month15Day -844.29ton
12month18Day -837.20ton
12month19Day -836.02ton
12month20Day -836.02ton
12month21Day -836.02ton
12month26Day -837.50ton
12month27Day -837.50ton
12month28Day -837.50ton
12month29Day -837.50ton
1month2Day -836.32ton
1month3Day -836.32ton
1month4Day -836.04ton

12Monthly goldfuturesDue date:12month27day
12Monthly goldoptionDue date:11month27day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Data source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2017year12month)

Global:33604.1ton (+104.5ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3373.6ton (-0.1ton)
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.9ton
China(6)：1842.6ton
Russia(7)：1801.2ton (+22.3ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver -慎防白银调整风险

银价周四触及六周高点17.27美元，当前向上阻力先会参考11month17Daily high17.37as well as10month16Daily high17.46美元；较大阻力估计为17.90and18.30美元。不过，图表见RSI及随机指数已自超买区域呈现回落迹象，尤其随机指数已走出了三级背驰，银价回调风险正在逐渐加大。以这轮的累计升幅计算，38.2%and50%的回调水平为16.62and16.42Expand to61.8%Then in the16.22美元。较重要支撑预估会指向16The US dollar barrier.

London Silver2018year1month5day
Predicting early wave amplitude:16.80 –17.50
Resistance level:17.90–18.30
Support bit:16.40–15.90

iSharesSilver TrustSilver holdings:
12month11Day - 10117.94ton
12month12Day - 10161.96ton
12month13Day - 10194.24ton
12month14Day - 10150.22ton
12month15Day - 10150.22ton
12month18Day - 10150.22ton
12month19Day - 10150.22ton
12month20Day - 10150.22ton
12month21Day - 10150.22ton
12month26Day - 10126.74ton
12month27Day - 10101.80ton
12month28Day - 10060.72ton
12month29Day - 9972.70ton
1month2Day - 9972.70ton
1month3Day - 9968.64ton
1month4Day - 9904.09ton



EUR euro -逼近三年高位

欧元区向好的乐观情绪推动欧元升穿1.20美元，逼近三年高点。欧元区经济以近七年最快增长速度为2017年划上句点，得益于区内主要经济体的服务业和制造业活动加速。而且需求不断上升预示今年会有较高的起点。欧元还受到欧洲央行货币政策将在今年调整的预期支撑。欧洲央行购债计划从今年一月开始从每月购债600亿欧元减少至300亿欧元，并以时间换取空间，以免缩减刺激过快而挫伤市场。不过经济基本面实在亮眼，欧洲央行管委诺沃特尼称，如果欧元区经济继续强劲增长，欧洲央行2018年可能结束刺激计划。

欧元隔夜受到新的提振。数据显示，欧元区经济以近七年最快增速为2017年划上句点。欧洲央行势将缩减大规模刺激措施，最终将加入美国联邦储备理事会(FED)的行列推动货币政策正常化，这使得近期美国与欧元区公债收益率之差收窄，对欧元构成支撑。欧元本周以来已上涨0.6%，欧元若升破1.2092美元，将创2015year1The highest level since the beginning of the month.

技术走势而言，自去年八月起始，图表见欧元兑美元走势形成了一组三角型态，至上周汇价已初步向上突破位于1.1910的三角顶部，或见欧元仍可维持升势。向上较大阻力将见于1.2090and1.22Horizontal, further observation200Monthly average line1.2430。支持位可先瞩目于1.20关口，本周初至今，连日低位亦是刚好贴近1.20关口附近，故后市仍当留意这位置，但若失守，则恐防欧元会走出较具规模调整，较大支持料为1.1930and25Balance moving average1.1860Horizontal.

Focus:
1month5day(five): France12Monthly Consumer Confidence Index‧eurozone12monthHICPAnnual rate initial value‧Deducting food and energy expensesHICPAnnual rate initial value‧eurozone11monthPPI
1month8day(one): Germany11Monthly industrial order rate‧eurozone1Monthly Investor Confidence Index‧eurozone11Monthly retail sales‧eurozone12Monthly Enterprise Prosperity Index‧Economic Sentiment Index‧工业景气指数‧服务业景气指数‧Consumer confidence index‧消费者通胀预期指数‧生产者通胀预期指数
1month9day(two): Germany11Monthly industrial production rate‧trade balance‧France11Monthly current account‧trade balance‧eurozone11Monthly unemployment rate
1month10day(three): France11Monthly industrial production rate
1month11day(four): Eurozone11Monthly industrial production
1month12day(five): Italy11Monthly industrial production

Related news
欧洲央行管委诺沃特尼：若欧元区经济保持强劲，2018年可能结束购债

IHS Markitof12月欧元区制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)The final value is60.6
Germany12月经季节调整失业总人口减少2.910000 people to244.2ten thousand people
Germany12The monthly unemployment rate is5.5%，触及纪录低位
Germany11Monthly actual retail sales increased compared to the previous month2.3%, increased compared to the same period last year4.4%
France12Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)Initial value increased compared to the same period last year1.3%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance1.2090 –1.2200 –1.2430
support1.2000 –1.1930 – 1.1860



JPY yen -风险偏好改善损及日圆

受美元兑欧元走软拖累，美元指数本周周线料下跌0.3%。美元指数曾一度触及三个月低点91.751，该指数本周料连续第三周录得周线跌幅。日圆兑普遍走软的美元贬值，是因为投资者风险偏好普遍益发升温，这削弱了日圆作为避险货币的吸引力。美国就业数据虽较预期强劲，美元仍未能获得支撑。民间就业服务机构ADPEmployer ServicesOn Thursday, it was stated that,12月美国民间就业岗位增加25Ten thousand, for3月以来最大月度增幅。市场目前聚焦于周五公布的美国非农就业报告，预料12Monthly addition19Ten thousand job opportunities.

技术走势而言，预计美元兑日圆向上阻力先会参考去年12Monthly high113.74，较大阻力则指向114.50and115关口。然而，相对强弱指标及随机指数已呈回落，汇价仍见下调压力。预估目前较近支持在112and111.40水平；若果以自九月低位至十一月高位的累计涨幅计算，50%and61.8%的回吐幅度为111and110.15Horizontal.

Focus:
1month9day(two): Japan11Monthly overtime pay annual rate‧Japan12Monthly Consumer Confidence Index
1month11day(four): Japan12monthforeign exchangereserve‧Japan11Monthly Simultaneous Indicator Monthly Rate‧Leading indicator monthly rate
1month12day(five): Japan12Monthly bank loan annual rate‧日本上周日本投资外国债券‧Last week, foreign investment in Japanese stocks‧Japan11月流动帐平衡‧Japan12Monthly Service Industry Prosperity Index--经济观察者调查

Related news
首相安倍晋三：日本经济向结束通缩稳步迈进

MARKIT/日经日本12Monthly Service Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)lower51.1
MARKIT/日经日本12Monthly comprehensivePMI持平于前月的52.2

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance113.74 –114.50 –115.00
support112.00 –111.40 –110.15



GBP pound -小升，受强劲服务业调查数据的提振

英镑兑美元小升，之前有调查显示12月英国服务业强劲复苏，但在英镑近期上涨后投资者不愿继续推高英镑。英镑也受益于美元的全线走弱以及风险偏好的普遍回升，提振了对英镑的人气。但诸如经常帐赤字增加等结构性因素犹在还是令投资者小心谨慎。英镑兑美元上升至1.3577, distance9月末创下的四个月高位1.3659不远。据最新的持仓数据，英镑的多头仓位徘徊在逾三年最高附近。周四公布的调查显示，英国服务业在12月出人意料地快速成长，企业对2018年的看法要比他们在2017年很多时间里更加乐观，但英国脱欧仍在影响企业的投资计划。自上个月欧盟峰会上英国退欧谈判进入下个阶段以来，英镑累计上涨近3%。一些投资者已对英镑未来几周的前景更为乐观。去年英镑兑美元取得2009年以来最佳年度表现，在美元全面走疲的态势下取得了近10%的涨幅。不过相较于退欧投票前的水平，英镑兑美元仍低出约10%。

技术图表见，相对强弱指标及随机指数已陷入超买区域，英镑兑美元短期或会稍缓近月以来的升势。阻力位可参考去年9Monthly high1.3656Further observation1.38水平。至于下方支持先看25Balance moving average1.3420水平，关键将会是起延自今年三月的上升趋向线位于1.3280，此区同时亦是若100天平均线位置，需慎防若汇价跌破此区，或会破坏整体的上升态势。

Focus:
1month8day(one): UK12monthHalifaxMonthly rate of housing price index‧by12Three months of the monthHalifaxAnnual rate of housing price index
1month9day(two): UK12monthBRC同店零售销售年率
1month10day(three): UK11月建筑业产出‧industrial production ‧Manufacturing output‧对非欧盟地区贸易平衡‧全球商品贸易平衡

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance1.3656 –1.3800
support1.3420 –1.3280



CHF Swiss franc -陷于回调

美元兑瑞郎走势，相对强弱指标及随机指数呈向上，示意汇价仍有回升倾向。向上阻力预估为250Balance moving average0.9830，进一步则于1.00关口。下方支撑回看0.97and0.9560，关键支持预估为0.95Horizontal.

Focus:
1month8day(one)Switzerland12monthCPI
1month9day(two)Switzerland12Monthly unemployment rate‧Switzerland11Monthly retail sales annual rate

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance0.9830 –1.0000
support0.9700 –0.9560 –0.9500



AUD AUD -贸易数据打击澳元

全球经济成长的乐观看法支撑风险偏好以及大宗商品价格，促使澳元兑美元近月走高，至周五早盘一度触及11Weekly high point0.7870。不过，当公布的数据显示，澳洲11月贸易逆差达到创纪录的6.28亿澳元，澳元受到了一些打击。此前原本预期为录得贸易顺差。不过分析师警告称，该数据并未充分反映出铁矿石现货价格在11月期间的大涨。统计局在得到矿产商的真实数据之前，通常会使用一个假设价格；而取得矿产商的真实数据可能需要几个月的时间。这说明出口数据日后可能会被上修，特别是铁矿石还是澳洲出口额最大的单一商品。其他主要大宗商品出口价格在过去几个月亦走高，其中包括铜、煤炭和液化天然气。

技术走势而言，澳元兑美元已明确冲破250天平均线，后市有望继续延展上涨行情；预计之后延伸较大阻力将为0.80关口以及参考去年9Monthly high0.8125。下方支撑可回看100Balance moving average0.7780as well as250平均线0.7680Horizontal.

Related news
Australia11月经季调民间信贷较前月上升0.5%，房屋信贷增加0.4%
Australia11月经季调商品/服务贸易收支为逆差6.28AUD 100 million
Australia11月经季调商品/服务出口与上月持平
Australia11月经季调商品/服务进口较上月增长1%

Focus:
1month8day(one): Australia12monthAIG建筑业指数
1month9day(two): Australia11Monthly building permit rate‧Australia12monthANZ整体招聘广告月率‧Previous value1.5%
1month11day(four): Australia11Monthly retail sales rate

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance0.8000 –0.8125
support0.7780 –0.7680



NZD New Zealand dollars -技术超买压力，纽元升势暂缓

纽元兑美元周四走涨，鉴于RSI及随机指数均已达至严重超买区域，估计纽元再而上升的动力将为有限。以去年11month17Daily low0.6781起始的累计涨幅计算，38.2%and50%的调整水平为0.6995and0.6955Expand to61.8%Then it is0.6915。关键支持重探0.6780。至于若然向上突破，预计延伸目标会在估0.72及回看去年9Monthly high0.7435Horizontal.

Related news
1month12day(five): New Zealand11Monthly building permit rate

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance0.7200 –0.7435
support0.6995 –0.6955 –0.6915



CAD Cad -高位整固

加元亦从大宗商品价格上扬中受益，其中crude oil价格创下2015年以来最高水平。加元料将录得连续第三个周线涨幅，兑美元周五触及1.2479加元的两个半月高位。

美元兑加元方面，技术图表所见，汇价在上周已跌破100Balance moving average1.26水平，破坏了此前两个月来的横盘格局。以9to10月的累计涨幅计算，50%and61.8%的调整幅度分别为1.2490and1.2385。估计较大支撑则在1.22水平。至于向上阻力则会先瞩目于25Balance moving average1.2730，这段期间的波动亦以此指标为重要顶部；下一级关键阻力则在1.2920, from10月底以来汇价曾几度考验此区，但均是无功而返，包括最近于11month30日所见的高位1.2909and12month19Of1.2918，两次都见未能破位后出现明显回挫。

Focus:
1month5day(five): Canada12Monthly job changes‧unemployment rate‧Employment participation rate‧Canada11Monthly trade balance‧Export‧Import‧Canada12monthIveyPMI
1month9day(two): Canada12Monthly housing construction annual rate
1month10day(three): Canada11Monthly building permit rate
1month11day(four): Canada11月新屋价格月率

Related news
MARKITCanada12Monthly Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)经季调后上升至54.7
Canada11月工业产品价格较前月上涨1.4%, up from the same period last year2.7%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance1.2730 –1.2920*
support1.2490 –1.2385

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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)