Yiheng Lunjin:12.31-1.2gold2018行情展望，中长线布局，空单解套必看。

​​​Article Summary:​12.31goldXAUUSD下周走势分析与操作建议;12.30goldXAUUSD下周走势怎么看？黄金XAUUSD下周还会涨吗？黄金为什么连续暴涨？什么是锁仓？锁仓了怎么解？2018How to operate gold for the first time in the year without agriculture?下周非农数据是利空还是利多？黄金年末为什么出现暴涨行情，现在黄金能做空吗?黄金空单锁单能保本出来吗?How can gold recover its losses last week?投资黄金有哪些操作技巧？黄金暴涨黄金XAUUSD空单怎么办？黄金XAUUSD空单被套如何解？中长线如何布局？

​Last week's market review of gold:
       圣诞节假期之后，黄金价格延续前期的升势，进一步走高；周二黄金价格站上1280关口之后；周三盘中金价进一步走高最高触及1288.6dollar/盎司。眼下，市场对全球地缘政治风险的持续担忧以及美元疲软正提振黄金的吸引力，而黄金价格也不负众望，在圣诞节后强势突破1270/1280美元两大整数关口，触及近四周新高；周四黄金开盘1287.77，日间一路慢涨攻破90关口，随之站稳；周五早间亚盘开盘1294.35，依旧呈现出慢涨之态，到欧盘开盘时，黄金以站稳1297dollar/盎司，晚间短暂的回调趋势依然没能阻挡黄金上涨之势，一直到美盘，黄金一路高涨，势如破竹，连破2大阻力位1298-1300，最终敲开了千三的大门，一扫之前颓废之态，向人们展示出独属于自己王者魅力。亦-恒老师强调如果站稳1290上方还会继续上涨，建议1294附近做多周五成功1305止盈，下周整体趋势依然做多为主，黄金这一波上涨之前暴跌本团队带大家从1295.1291,1274，1264的空单1250附近成功离场，本次又做多，可以说不管行情怎么走，我们依然都抓的住，依然稳健在这个市场获利，所以说只有走不出的趋势，没有抓不住的行情，交易更多的是顺势操作，顺势了剩余的交给市场。



什么原因导致黄金近日连翻上涨？
1、跨年即将来临警惕恐袭事件令避险情绪升温
近期来频繁的恐怖袭击导致避险情绪的高涨，据报道，莫斯科和美国孟菲斯市今日均发生枪击事件。事实上，今年万圣节以来，纽约已经出现2次恐袭事件，因此纽约警方正在加大安全保障力度。节假日期间恐怖分子可能较为活跃，投资者需要警惕恐袭事件令市场避险情绪升温。
2、两位朝鲜官员遭受制裁朝鲜或将导弹伪装成卫星发射？
美国财政部在周三（12month27日）凌晨宣布，对两名参与火箭研发项目的朝鲜官员实施制裁。美国财长努钦在声明中表示，财政部瞄准朝鲜弹道导弹计划的领导人，正在推动朝鲜半岛实现完全无核化。自联合国安理会通过制裁朝鲜的决议后，朝鲜近期并无再度试射导弹的迹象。不过，韩美两国正密切关注朝鲜会否将远程导弹伪装成卫星发射。美朝事件已经持续很久了，而朝鲜对于核武器方面的态度也是十分强硬，对此美朝冲突或将加剧。
3、特朗普恐将遭受“逼宫”！美元面临大敌
特朗普的前竞选顾问斯通表示，一些内阁成员曾讨论过把总统赶出白宫的计划。华盛顿时报援引斯通称，部分特朗普政府官员考虑是否应该引用第25条修正案，从而迫使总统下台，他们可能图谋将特朗普赶出白宫。此外，最近的民意调查显示，支持弹劾特朗普的民主党人数比例高达75%，民主党明年有可能利用在众议院的潜在多数优势来弹劾总统。弹劾行动可能会使他们疏远无党派人士和保守的民主党人，最终导致他们在明年选举中失去众议院多数席位导致国家四分五裂。
亦恒论金认为：近期黄金的涨势原自于美国的经济数据再次下滑，以及美国特朗普政府的岌岌可危加上朝鲜核弹引发的新一轮避险情绪，从而支撑黄金的走高，但是亦-恒论金今年不止一次的强调，但凡避险情绪导致的黄金上涨都会在行情的后端显的有些乏力，而一旦避险情绪消退，黄金只会又一次的下跌。因此亦恒论金建议投资者多单谨慎持有遇阻减仓即可。


周线、月线、年线三线收官，黄金能否再创新高？

       圣诞节后，黄金继续上涨的动能表现强势，从走势上来看，这绝对是强势上涨，而且是趋势性的上涨，在美联储决议前亦-恒论金就多次讲过这一点，每一次的美联储决议，都是黄金新一轮的起涨点，而且，12月份的加息，是年内的最后一次，回顾黄金历史走势，已经有连续4Year in12月份出现底部，而这一次也不例外，美联储加息过后触底反弹，亦恒认为明日三线齐收，周线，月线，年线必将是完美收官。

       本月美联储加息之后的多头反转，以及周五三线齐收，多头继续持续涨势，黄金再次回到1300，目前亦-恒来看黄金筑底阶段基本完成，技术面上来看全年整体偏强震荡反弹的趋势，外加美联储加息的炒预期买事实造就了行情的反转，和历史的重演，目前将近2个周的碎阳慢涨，趋势三阶段，周评中亦恒就说过，黄金目前趋势开启萌芽阶段的反复筑底，趋势展开式的一蹴而就，趋势衰竭式的高位反复。所以亦-恒觉得，元旦假期休市但是整体行情还是会偏强，而且又迎来黄金多头加速阶段，元旦后亦-恒预计会直逼1305附近，而春节前后不排除测试1310-1325的可能甚至上破。亦-恒预计明年中旬至少会去试探性的突破今年的高点1335one1357线附近。

亦恒论金：下周2018年第一次非农，黄金该如何操作？
方法一：Bidirectional order placement, before the release of non-agricultural data3Minute silver hanging one30Multiple orders and one high order hanging around the dot30Set the low hanging empty order around o'clock before hanging it50Point profit. Same gold hanging5Single point high order multiple order sum5A short order with a low order value of around points (different currency pairs have different points), after one order is completed, another order that is not completed is deleted. If the data doesn't have that much impact, it won't be able to50What about the profit of the point? Then manually close the position when you feel weak in the upward attack.
方法二：在非农来之前进一锁仓单，这对锁仓单你可以通过看5分钟线，相对低做多，相对高做空，如果能这样先会有点盈利会做出手续费等，如果你感觉这样比较麻烦你可以直接进锁仓单，亦-恒论金建议在消息要公布前3分钟左右后面分两个方法：给这两单各设25Stop loss at one point,60Stop earning at a certain point, and you can set a higher profit loss ratio. This way, both orders will generally be cancelled, and after removing the handling fee, you will have approximately29A space of points. Both orders are only set to stop earnings based on the expected situation of the news50—80Interval setting: When a message is received, one order is cancelled and the other order can be closed according to the situation. Only in cases where the data is very good and very bad can a unilateral market be established, and even if the market exits, there will be a pullback.
方法三：Approximately before the announcement of the news3Make an order according to the expected message in minutes, and make an order in the same direction as the expected message. It is subject to both stop loss and stop loss, and generally has a profit loss ratio of at least2：1Using small losses to gain big profits, this type of non agricultural success can generally guarantee capital after three attempts.
方法四：We need to wait for the impact of non-agricultural data before placing an order. Based on the actual situation of the message, we can make a callback or take advantage of the callback to follow the trend, combined with the Bollinger BandsRSI操作此四法操作关键是对此重大消息对相应货币对影响点数的大致分析，通过此分析设止盈；对止损只要确保在消息公布前不被打掉就行：还有设止盈止损点时间，离消息公布越近越好，同时又要确保把所以该设的全部设完越靠近消息公布设止损的可以相对设少点。
Technical analysis of gold:

       黄金本周整体呈现震荡的走强态势，周线收大阳线，周二延续多头走势，继续走强，强势上攻1280一线，站上1280一线，日线收中阳线，周三多头延续，运行慢涨逼空的行情，日线以小阳线报收，周四继续不破开盘价继续上行，上破1290关口，日线收中阳线，周五多头爆发，黄金强势上攻千三，收线成功站上千三关口，日线以大阳线报收。
       黄金从月线图来看，月线收探底压制黄金下行6Of1921reach1796的下降趋势线，企稳收阳，月线以探底大阳线报收，站稳千三关口，同时站上89均线，企稳10均线收阳，组成启明之星的K线形态，黄金月线偏向上行的概率大，操作上偏向月线级别的多头到来，关注下个月线对1320一线的突破，一旦K线实体突破站稳，黄金后市将会上破前期高点1357一线，亦-恒论金从指标来看，布林带有开口向上的迹象，同时连续三个月收线收在布林带中轨上方，企稳布林带中轨收阳，形成启明之星的K线形态，同时指标经过前期三个月的震荡蓄势，已经运行在低位，同时MACD的阳柱在放大，多头力量在加强，月线偏向上行的概率大。

       4小时图上，黄金运行的是低点抬升，高点创新高的多头走势，4小时沿着10均线一路碎阳上行，多头控盘，操作上还是顺势继续跟进多单，回落以多为主，同时不要操作上不要去猜顶，下方以不破10均线继续做多上看，不过要注意上方两个节点，也就是1311and1328这两个节点的突破，破位1311将会直接进攻1328一线，操作上还是保持多头思路继续做多上看，只要顶部不出现见顶信号，黄金就要一路做多上看，而不是去抄顶，RSIHigh position turning head downwards,Stoch指标高位死叉，拐头向下，指标显示短线有调整，从目前极端行情来看，黄金调整的幅度亦-恒论金预计有限，黄金下周继续看涨的思路不变，下方关注1296and1286一线支撑位，上方关注1311and1328First line pressure level.


Golden Operation Strategy:
Empty order strategy:
黄金触及1310Short selling(买跌)十分之二仓位，止损1312, Objective1300Near.
Multi order strategy:
Gold Callback1300Go long(买涨)十分之二仓位，止损3Points, target1309。

12.31-1.2黄金空单解套策略：
1. stay1295附近的空单，后面只需要把握住回调的机会，亦-恒认为不出意外后面会承压回落，如果仓位不重可以于1302附近出局，后市能够依此位去布局多单，上看1310。
2. 1285附近的空单，点位套的较深，这个点位是最尴尬的，砍了舍不得，反手最高又不敢。但亦-恒论金想告诉你，从目前的突破态势看，上涨幅度还会很大，不及时作出决定回造成更大的亏损，思路是回调进多，同样若是仓位不重，亦恒论金建议在1300区域砍掉1285附近空单，反手追多看新高。近期不会回调！
3. about1280下方空单，如果近期的慢涨过程中没有及时出局的话相信现在是被套处于锁单状态，亦-恒论金相信目前你也是心力憔悴了，加上没有章法的胡乱操作，就容易陷入了一个恶性循环的局面，如果后市不知道该怎么把握可以咨询亦恒论金。

​亦恒论金就当下消息面，来总结一下对后市行情的看法：
       元旦之后，也就是1月份，就目前的情况来看，大趋势依然偏向于多头，亦恒我个人来看，攻破千三之后，黄金续涨的可能性比较大，但是涨到什么地方，这也是后话，说不定也会盘整待消息面出现或者其他因素来打破。毕竟市场唯一不变的就是变，说不定触及1310It is not impossible for a sudden major correction to occur, and besides the technical aspect, the most influential factors on gold are also the news aspect and institutional crash factors.
       Don't tell me how much time I have, everyone-Heng Lun Jin is just because the current market is optimistic about a continuous rise, but it does not mean that bears have no hope. The following is also a commentary on the bullish and bearish factors by Heng Lun Jin:
       because2018We also need to consider factors from the Federal Reserve.2018Yellen officially stepped down. Powell followed Yellen's dove policy before, but after stabilizing his position, he suddenly spoke out to strengthen the US economy, which has a boosting effect on the US dollar2018The Federal Reserve will also raise interest rates, and the market will also be affected by the trend of gold due to interest rate hikes. If Powell followed the policies he had proposed, coupled with the certainty of interest rate hikes, gold would also have returned1200Nearby power.
       而且就美元来看，近期美元的下跌很严重，也即将面临着重要支撑，这也就意味着美元的反弹将近，如果后市没有消息面来利空美元的话，美元也将强势反弹。这对黄金也是一种打压。
       以上是利空的因素，接下来亦-恒就说说黄金多头的因素。黄金目前依然受避险影响，虽然半岛局势方面并未继续发酵，但是也并未缓和，只要事件没有黄金，那黄金的避险支撑也就不会消退，还有进一步激发的可能。
       而且川普一直被因为通俄门被不断调查，这让川普遭受到了很多质疑，这对美元也是一种打压。还有税改虽然通过，但是细节方面需要调整修改，这也令美元的上涨之路缺少动力。从而提振了黄金。
       以上只是亦-恒论金对近期以及后市的一个看法，多空具体怎么看，后市再说，各位可以参考参考。各位假期吃好喝好玩好，本人也会拿出最好的状态来带你们在2018大战黄金市场。


Yiheng Lunjin emphasized:

       How far a person can go depends on who they are walking with; How excellent a person is depends on what kind of friends they have around them; How much success a person can achieve depends on who gives them guidance. To give you a precise suggestion, it's better to give you a correct idea, because the news in the article has lag and timeliness, and the market is constantly changing, making it easy to lose money. What we need to do when reading the article is to learn . also-Teacher Heng is an analyst who enjoys studying the impact of news and technology on the trend of gold. For a long time, I have been tireless in this regard, as this is my major and I need to be responsible for my work and trust, as well as for Teacher Heng's students. After all, none of the students' money was brought by strong winds, which is also my responsibility. In order for us to learn these analytical ideas instead of blindly making orders based on suggestions, we believe through this learning and communication that soon, you won't have to rely on others and you will make your own orders!
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