此刻论金：如何使用对冲

此刻论金：如何使用对冲




所谓对冲做单是基于市场强弱特征而采用的一种做单模式，投资者通过做多一个趋势偏强品种和做空一个趋势偏弱品种来获得收益。对冲做单并不像套利做单那样注重品种的相关性，对冲做单的组合标的比套利做单更宽广也更复杂，可以跨周期、跨商品和跨市场。
　　采用对冲做单的优势在于：一是只需要判断市场强弱而无须判断方向。二是可以规避系统性风险。三是有利于增加资产管理的稳定性，降低账户权益回撤率。四是在不确定性中增加确定性，获取绝对收益。
　　做单方向相反、投入资金相等是对冲做单的原则。但做单品种普通是无相关甚至是负相关关系；进场操作无须严格同步。后面两点跟套利做单有所差别。套利做单注重波动率差异预测，而对冲做单注重强弱特征预测。进行具体预测时，可以参考宏观面预测、基本分析面预测、技术面预测、资金面预测、心理面预测和事件预测期望预测，等等。
　　根据预测方法和角度的不同，对冲做单有不同的方式类型。大概包括以下几种：一是宏观对冲。可以采用跨地区对冲和跨金融资产对冲。比如预测期望金融环境将因经济下降转向宽松时，可以多国债空工业品futures。二是基本分析面对冲。根据不同品种供需关系差异进行对冲做单。比如锌矿石产能在减少而铁矿石产能在增加，可以采用做多锌做空螺纹钢的建议。再比如，全球大豆同比增产并大量上市而蛋鸡存栏同比下滑，就可以做空豆粕1505合约做多鸡蛋1501合约。三是技术型对冲。根据不同品种呈现的技术强弱特征进行对冲做单。比如做多处于上升趋势的品种，做空处于下探趋势的品种。四是资金流向对冲。通过观察不同品种的持仓情况，做多活跃品种中多方净流入合约，并做空不活跃品种中空方净流出合约。五是事件预测期望对冲。即在重要经济数据出炉前也许突发事件发生后，根据市场预测期望采取市场影响敏感程度不同的品种合约进行对冲做单。
　　做对冲做单时要注意一下几点：
一、从技术角度看，普通可以做多最先触底反弹也许抗跌的品种，做空最晚触底反弹也许滞涨的品种。


二、对于基本分析面预测，先重势后重价。


三、从市场反应来看，趋势偏弱品种普通对利于空头消息敏感而对利多消息反应麻木，趋势偏强品种则反之。


四、做对冲做单时，对逆势品种的操作可以等等，而对顺势品种的操作要尽量即时执行。


五、对冲做单不能变成单边操作的保护性仓位。


六、要做好做单计划并定期评估组合状况。


七、对冲做单虽然对方向的把握不要求精准判断，但对组合品种和操作时机要求较高。


八、技术型日内强弱对冲需要借助计算机技术。


9option将为对冲做单带来更多的做单机会和对冲方式。


十、对冲做单不要像套利做单那样依赖历史差价经济数据。


十一、对冲做单通常采用比值预测而非比价预测，这关系到做单时要用等额投资而非等量投资。

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