品汇国际：美元走弱临近关键位置非美多谨慎

Market Review
　在周三的foreign exchange市场上，美元继续呈下跌的走势，美元指数最高上涨到93.54, 最低下跌到93.16, closing at93.30。欧美最高上涨到1.19010，最低下跌到1.18290, closing at1.18770。
　　尽管日内公布的美国11月成屋销售数据攀升至11年高位且税改成功在望，美元多头却无动于衷，继续跌跌不休之旅。有投行研究发现，近期以来美元多头越来越难以取悦，这是因为本应为利好因素的税改、美国国债收益率攀升再难以提振美元表现，且美元汇率仍被高估。
　　另一方面，虽然美国众议院已经通过了税改法案投票，但考虑到市场已经消化了全面税改法案最终实施的因素，美元上行方向并未受到有效提振。不过此次通过的最终版本和最初版本相比有了不少让步，该法案主要是为企业和富人减税，为工薪阶层个人和家庭提供了好坏不一的临时减税办法。市场已经对该计划将对美国经济产生的积极影响产生了质疑。
　　此外，日本央行即将公布12月政策会议决定，投资者希望从中找到日本央行未来政策是否会出现改变的线索，日内美元兑日元涨幅受限。
从技术上来看,美指周三反弹受阻在93.55之下，跌破20日均线的支持，收盘在93.30,意味着美元短线反弹后可能会继续回落。如果美指今天反弹受阻在93.50之下，后市回落的目标将会指向93.10—93.00。美指只有跌破93.00才会继续走弱至92.50—95.60。美指只有站稳在94.00之上，才会令美元结束短线回调，重新开启反弹到94.20—94.60区间。今天美指短线阻力在93.45—93.50Short term important resistance93.65—93.70。
[Trading Strategy]
US dollar index: can be found in93.50—93.00Sell at the upper limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit25Point stop loss, with the target at the lower limit of the range.
Euro/USD: can be used in1.19400---1.18400Buying at the lower limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit400Point stop loss, the target is at the upper limit of the range.
GBP/USD: can be used in1.34150---1.33550Buying at the lower limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit300Point stop loss, the target is at the upper limit of the range.
USD/Ruilang: You can find0.99100---0.98300间下限买入，有效破位350Stop loss at a single point, with the target at the upper limit of the range.
USD/Japanese yen: can be used in113.900---113.000Buying at the lower limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit400Stop loss at a single point, with the target at the upper limit of the range.
AUD/USD: can be used in0.76900---0.76500Buying at the lower limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit200Point stop loss, the target is at the upper limit of the range.
USD/CAD: Can be used in1.28700---1.28000Sell at the upper limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit350Stop loss at one point, with the target at the lower limit of the range.
　　gold: Can be found in the1269.00—1262.00Sell at the upper limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit3USD stop loss, targeting the lower limit of the range.
　　白银：可以在16.250—16.050Sell at the upper limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit0.100USD stop loss, targeting the lower limit of the range.
Today's Key Financial Data and Events
① 08:01 britain12monthGfkConsumer confidence index
② 11:00 日本央行公布利率决议及政策声明
③ 15:00 Switzerland11Monthly trade account
④ 21:30 Canada11monthCPIMonthly rate, Canada10月零售销售月率、美国至12month16Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week
⑤ 21:30 US Q3 ActualGDP年化季率终值、美国第三季度实际个人消费支出季率终值
⑥ 21:30 US Q3 CorePCE物价指数年化季率终值、美国12Monthly Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index
⑦ 22:00 U.S.A10monthFHFAMonthly rate of housing price index
⑧ 23:00 U.S.A11Monthly consultation chamber leading indicator monthly rate
⑨ 23:30 From the United States to12month15Day and WeekEIANatural gas inventory