Crossing the Sea 2017year12month18day (Gold)

Focus this week:
12month18day(Monday)
U.S.A12monthNAHBHousing market index

12month19day(Tuesday)
美国第三季流动帐平衡
U.S.A11Monthly Building Permit
U.S.A11Monthly housing construction starts

12month20day(Wednesday)
U.S.A11Monthly Housing Sales

12month21day(Thursday)
美国第三季企业获利修订
Season 3 in the United StatesGDPMonth on month annual rate final value
Season 3 in the United StatesGDP最终销售终值%
Season 3 in the United StatesGDP消费者支出终值
Season 3 in the United StatesGDP平减指数终值
Season 3 in the United StatesPCEFinal value of price index
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
U.S.A11Monthly National Activity Index
U.S.A12Monthly Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index
U.S.A10monthFHFAHouse Price Index

12month22day(Friday)
U.S.A11Monthly Building Permit Revision
U.S.A11月质个人支出月率
U.S.A11Monthly personal income rate
U.S.A11Monthly personal expenditure rate
U.S.A11Monthly CorePCEprice index
U.S.A11monthPCEprice index
U.S.A11Monthly rate of durable goods orders
U.S.A12Final Value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for the Month
U.S.A11Monthly sales of new houses



Important economic data released today:  
07：50 Japan11Monthly export annual rate‧Previous value14.00%
07：50 Japan11Monthly import annual rate‧Previous value18.90%
07：50 Japan11Monthly trade balance‧Previous value2,854Yiyi surplus
08：30 Australia11Monthly sales of new cars‧Front value remains unchanged
09：30 China11month70Monthly Report on Residential Sales Prices in Major and Medium sized Cities
10：00 New Zealand11月外资持有新西兰公债比例‧Previous value58.30%
17：00 Italy10Monthly trade balance with the European Union‧Previous value4.69Yiyi surplus
17：00 Italy10Monthly Global Trade Balance‧Previous value39.90Yiyi surplus
18：00 eurozone11Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)Monthly rate final value‧forecast0.10%‧Previous value0.10%
18：00 eurozone11Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)Annual rate final value‧forecast1.50%‧Previous value1.50%
18：00 eurozone11Monthly deduction of food and energyHICPMonthly rate final value‧Previous value-0.10%
18：00 eurozone11Monthly deduction of food and energyHICPAnnual rate final value‧Previous value1.10%
19：00 britain12Monthly Industrial Alliance(CBI)Total industrial order difference‧Front value positive17
23：00 U.S.A12月全美住宅建筑商协会(NAHB)Housing market index‧forecast70‧Previous value70



12month15day
LondongoldMorning order price:1257.25
London gold afternoon fixing price:1254.60



XAU London Gold - 金价筑底持稳

上周美国、欧洲和英国以及瑞士等央行悉数召开政策会议，最为市场所瞩目的是美联储会议，普遍认为这次会议几乎肯定会加息，因此把关注重点放在联储对于来年升息路径的预测上。美联储于周三晚一如预期加息，并维持对明年升息三次的预测不变，令寄望加快升息步伐的人士感到失望，引发美元回跌。良好的经济态势使得一些人士预期联储会增加对明年升息次数的预测；但美联储却只维持明后两年各升息三次的预测不变。此外，美国税改法案在国会的进展也成为牵制美元走势的一个因素。美国国会共和党议员周三就税改立法达成一致，一度提振美元，但周四传出在修改法案方面又起争议，又拖累美元走低。两名共和党参议员坚持修改议案，加入到那些支持立场还不确定的议员行列。佛罗里达州参议员鲁比奥(MarcoRubio)在国会山对记者表示，如果议案不扩大儿童税收抵免的可退税额度，就会投反对票。犹他州参议员Mike Lee的发言人ConnCarroll表示，鲁比奥和Lee正在与其他参议员磋商扩大儿童税收抵免的可退税额问题。税改议案料将于本周在两院举行，决定性投票若要在参议院获得通过，需要得到过半数支持票。在100个参议院席位中共和党只占52席，预计民主党参议员都不会支持该议案。民主党人琼斯(DougJones)周二在亚拉巴马州的选举中赢得了一个参议院席位，令共和党在参议院本就缩小的多数优势进一步变窄。议案的进展或会左右本周美元走势。

伦敦黄金方面，上周五金价持稳于1250水平上方，从周一触及的五个月低位1235.90美元反弹，并实现四周来首次周线上涨。技术图表所见，当前重要阻力将参考200Balance moving average1268美元，倘若后市可扳回此区之上，估计金价将有望重新走稳。以过去三个月的累计跌幅计算，38.2%The rebound level can be seen as1283Horizontal,50%and61.8%The rebound amplitude is1297and1311美元。至于下方支持料为上1244and1234美元，进一步看至1220USD.

London Gold12month18 – 22Daily predicted wave amplitude
Resistance level:1269 – 1279 – 1305 – 1313
Support bit:1251 – 1241 – 1225 – 1200

London Gold12month18day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1245 – 1257
Resistance level:1267 – 1277
Support bit:1235 – 1227

SPDR GoldTrustGold holdings:
11month27Day -842.21ton
11month28Day -839.55ton
11month29Day -839.55ton
11month30Day -839.55ton
12month1Day -848.11ton
12month4Day -846.93ton
12month5Day -845.47ton
12month6Day -845.47ton
12month7Day -842.81ton
12month8Day -842.81ton
12month11Day -842.81ton
12month12Day -842.81ton
12month13Day -844.29ton
12month14Day -844.29ton
12month15Day -844.29ton

12Monthly goldfuturesDue date:12month27day
12Monthly goldoptionDue date:11month27day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Data source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2017year11month2day)

Global:33499.6ton
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3373.7ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.9ton
China(6)：1842.6ton
Russia(7)：1778.9ton
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 银价重登16USD barrier

伦敦白银方面，技术图表可见MACD与讯号线相距缩窄，有机会即将呈意黄金交叉，示意着银价回稳的表征。下方支持料为15.50and15.00，较大支持见于14.70美元。至于向上阻力则料为16.30and16.80美元，较大阻力预估在17.20。

London Silver12month18 – 22Daily predicted wave amplitude:
Resistance level:16.40 – 16.60 – 17.10 – 17.80
Support bit:15.70 – 15.30 – 14.80 – 14.40

London Silver12month18day
Predicting early wave amplitude:15.70 – 16.30
Resistance level:16.60 – 17.00
Support bit:15.40 – 14.80

iSharesSilver TrustSilver holdings:
11month27Day - 9863.86ton
11month28Day - 9863.86ton
11month29Day - 9863.86ton
11month30Day - 9863.86ton
12month1Day - 9828.44ton
12month4Day - 9924.22ton
12month5Day - 10006.40ton
12month6Day - 10006.40ton
12month7Day - 10041.63ton
12month11Day - 10117.94ton
12month12Day - 10161.96ton
12month13Day - 10194.24ton
12month14Day - 10150.22ton
12month15Day - 10150.22ton

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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)