Crossing the Sea 2017year12month4day (Gold)

Crossing the Sea

2017

year

12

month

4

day

Focus this week:
12month4day(Monday)
U.S.A11monthISM-纽约商业活动指数
U.S.A10Monthly factory order rate
U.S.A10Monthly Durable Goods Order Monthly Rate Revision

12month5day(Tuesday)
U.S.A10Monthly International Trade Balance
U.S.A11monthMarkitcomprehensivePMIFinal value
U.S.A11monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value
U.S.A11monthISMNon manufacturing index

12month6day(Wednesday)
U.S.A11monthADPChanges in private employment positions
美国第三季非农单位劳工成本修订
Third quarter non farm productivity month on month annual rate revision in the United States

12month7day(Thursday)
U.S.A11monthChallengerNumber of layoffs planned by the company
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States

12month8day(Friday)
U.S.A10Monthly Consumer Credit
U.S.A11Monthly non-agricultural employment positions
U.S.A11Monthly private employment positions
U.S.A11Monthly manufacturing employment positions
U.S.A11月政府就业岗位
U.S.A11Monthly unemployment rate
U.S.A11Monthly average hourly salary
U.S.A11月平均每周工时
U.S.A11月劳动人口就业参与率
U.S.A12Initial monthly University of Michigan consumer confidence index
U.S.A10Monthly wholesale inventory‧sales



Important economic data released today:  
08：30 澳洲第三季商业库存季率‧Previous value-0.40%
08：30 澳洲第三季商业获利季率‧Previous value-4.50%
08：30 澳洲第三季商业税前获利季率‧Previous value-4.80%
08：30 Australia11monthANZ整体招聘广告月率‧Previous value1.40%
13：00 Japan11Monthly Consumer Confidence Index‧Previous value44.5
17：30 britain11monthMarkit/CIPS建筑业采购经理人指数(PMI)‧Previous value50.8
17：30 eurozone12monthSentixInvestor confidence index‧Previous value34
18：00 eurozone10Monthly Producer Price Index(PPI)Monthly rate‧Previous value0.60%
18：00 eurozone10Monthly Producer Price Index(PPI)the annual rate‧Previous value2.90%
22：45 U.S.A11monthISM-纽约商业活动指数‧Previous value749.4
23：00 U.S.A10Monthly factory order rate‧forecast0.60%‧Previous value1.40%
23：00 U.S.A10月扣除运输的工厂订单月率‧Previous value0.70%
23：00 U.S.A10Monthly Durable Goods Order Monthly Rate Revision‧Previous value2.20%
23：00 U.S.A10月扣除运输的耐用品订单月率修订‧Previous value1.10%
23：00 U.S.A10月扣除国防的耐用品订单月率修订‧Previous value2.40%
23：00 U.S.A10月扣除飞机的非国防资本财订单月率修订‧Previous value2.10%



12month1day
LondongoldMorning order price:1277.25
London gold afternoon fixing price:1275.50


Today's Introduction
美国参议院周六以微弱多数票通过税改议案，使得共和党人和总统特朗普朝他们的减税目标迈进了一大步。特朗普税改的目标是降低企业和富人税负，同时对普通美国民众的税负做出一系列调整。参议院以51-49的票选结果通过税改议案。特朗普希望年底前就能达成一致。这将令他与共和党人取得2017年的首次重大立法胜利。参议院和众议院有可能在本周开始谈判，就各自的议案达成一致。

近日包括美联储现任主席耶伦、美联储主席被提名人鲍威尔及三号人物杜德利在内的几名官员对于加息态度稍显鹰派。耶伦表示，加息必须避免经济繁荣到萧条的循环；美联储预计通胀未来1—2Annual increase2%。鲍威尔重申了逐步缩表、进一步加息的目标。杜德利表示，美国经济几乎接近充分就业，且对通胀并不特别担忧，认为美联储将持续渐进加息，并对美元保持在高位有信心。威廉姆斯及卡普兰都提到中性利率约为2.5%。仅有卡什卡利表示，若通胀持续处于低位，没有理由加息。本周就是美联储12月议息会议的静默期，所以官员相对偏鹰派的表态对于美元具有一定的支撑作用。接下来，澳洲央行和加拿大央行都将分别在本周二及周三公布最新的利率决定。数据方面，值得关注的有欧元区、日本以及澳洲的第三季GDP数据，和周五公布的美国11Monthly non farm employment data.



XAU London Gold - 金价异常窄幅，酝酿爆 破行情

伦敦黄金在十一月份窄幅震荡，一直未能表现出明显的波动方向，更走出了最近十二年来最窄的月度交投区间，上下波幅不到35美元。上周初，金价上行刷新月内高位，不过在鲍威尔与耶伦鹰派证词打压，美国税改预期乐观以及全球股市大涨打压下，黄金又告掉头回落。作为避险资产，黄金的避险属性在此段时间并未很好的体现出来，此前朝鲜再起风波，市场反响十分平淡；此外，全球股市人气高涨以及美国国债收益率普遍上涨，削弱了黄金作为避险资产的吸引力，大量资金从金市涌入股市与债市，亦可能是造成金价于十一月窄幅波动的原因。踏入12月，黄金能否打破目前的僵局，则料会聚焦于税改结果、非农数据与利率决议。

技术图表所见，金价上月多番于1300美元关口之前止步，暂时仍可把此区视作为关键阻力，若后市可成功突破，或见金价可开启更明确升势。预料向上延伸目标可看至1308and1320美元。在上周价位试顶不破后，似乎短线更倾向再行下滑，支持位将回看200Balance moving average1266水平，过去两个月以来金价亦于此技术指标获见支撑，若跌破此区或见金价跌势更为加剧，下一级支持料见至1250and1246USD.

London Gold12month4 – 8Daily predicted wave amplitude
Resistance level:1283 – 1295 – 1312 – 1339
Support bit:1265 – 1253 – 1238 – 1223

London Gold12month4day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1270 – 1281
Resistance level:1290 – 1299 – 1313
Support bit:1262 – 1253 – 1243

SPDR GoldTrustGold holdings:
11month6Day -845.46ton
11month7Day -844.27ton
11month8Day -843.09ton
11month9Day -843.09ton
11month10Day -843.09ton
11month13Day -843.39ton
11month14Day -843.39ton
11month15Day -843.39ton
11month16Day -843.39ton
11month17Day -843.39ton
11month20Day -843.39ton
11month21Day -843.39ton
11month22Day -843.39ton
11month23Day -843.39ton
11month24Day -843.39ton
11month27Day -842.21ton
11month28Day -839.55ton
11month29Day -839.55ton
11month30Day -839.55ton
12month1Day -848.11ton

12Monthly goldfuturesDue date:12month27day
12Monthly goldoptionDue date:11month27day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Data source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2017year11month2day)

Global:33499.6ton
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3373.7ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.9ton
China(6)：1842.6ton
Russia(7)：1778.9ton
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 银价跌破区间

白银周四触及10month6日来最低16.50美元，明确跌破近期的窄幅区间，或有着初步下试倾向，较大支持见于16.30and16.10美元，下一级看至15.70。至于向上阻力则料为16.70and17.10USD.

London Silver12month4 – 8Daily predicted wave amplitude:
Resistance level:16.70 – 17.00 – 17.60 – 18.50
Support bit:15.90 – 15.50 – 15.10 – 14.50

London Silver12month4day
Predicting early wave amplitude:16.00 – 16.50
Resistance level:16.80 – 17.10 – 17.60
Support bit:15.60 – 15.10 – 14.70

iSharesSilver TrustSilver holdings:
11month13Day - 9893.21ton
11month14Day - 9893.21ton
11month15Day - 9893.21ton
11month16Day - 9893.21ton
11month17Day - 9893.21ton
11month20Day - 9893.21ton
11month21Day - 9893.21ton
11month22Day - 9893.21ton
11month23Day - 9893.21ton
11month24Day - 9863.86ton
11month27Day - 9863.86ton
11month28Day - 9863.86ton
11month29Day - 9863.86ton
11month30Day - 9863.86ton
12month1Day - 9828.44ton



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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)