Crossing the Sea 2017year11month27 (foreign exchange)

Crossing the Sea

2017

year

11

month

27

day

EUR euro - 政治僵局打压欧元

欧元兑美元走势，图表所见，欧元上周已升破一下降趋向线，配合10Tianhe25天平均线亦已形成gold交叉，技术上有延续上升的倾向，若汇价可在短期内保持在1.18水平上方，则可望欧元继续探高，其后目标可看至1.1880and1.20关口，进一步可参考9Monthly high1.2090水平。下方则会瞩目本周早段曾测试的25Balance moving average, currently located at1.17水平，要留意若失守此区或见欧元再陷上落争持走势，较大支撑料为1.1550Horizontal.

Focus:
11month27day(one): Italy11月制造业企业信心指数‧Consumer confidence index
11month28day(two): Germany12monthGfKConsumer confidence index‧France11Monthly Consumer Confidence Index‧eurozone10monthM3Supply of goods(Annual growth rate)‧For household loans
11month29day(three): France10Monthly consumer expenditure rate‧France Season 3GDPQuarterly rate final value‧eurozone11Monthly Business Prosperity Index‧Economic Sentiment Index‧工业景气指数‧服务业景气指数‧消费者信心指数终值‧消费者通胀预期指数‧Germany11monthCPIinitial value‧HICPinitial value
11month30day(four): Germany10Monthly import prices‧实质零售销售‧France11monthHICPAnnual rate initial value‧France10monthPPIMonthly rate‧Germany11Changes in monthly unemployment numbers‧Unemployed population‧unemployment rate‧Italy10Monthly unemployment rate‧Italy11monthCPIinitial value‧HICPinitial value‧eurozone11monthHICPAnnual rate initial value‧Deducting food and energy expensesHICPthe annual rate‧eurozone10Monthly unemployment rate‧Italy10monthPPI
12month1day(five): Italy11monthMarkit/ADACImanufacturingPMI‧France11monthMarkitmanufacturingPMI‧Germany11monthMarkit/BMEmanufacturingPMI‧意大利第三季GDPFinal value‧eurozone11Monthly EurozoneMarkitmanufacturingPMI
      
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.1720 – 1.1810
support 1.1515 – 1.1440 – 1.1230



JPY yen - 美元续陷弱势

美元兑日圆上周四一度触及两个月低位111.05。美国税改的进展依然是市场关注的重要问题；美国总统特朗普周四在感恩节讲话中承诺将推出“大规模、诱人的减税措施”，但近期受访的分析师大多预计，美国共和党无法在今年使国会通过减税议案。

美元兑日圆上周跌破200天平均线，令技术面的弱势加剧；再者，由9月至今的走势形成的两个顶部与相应的MACD呈现背驰，亦指示着美元的下滑倾向。若果以过去两个月的累计涨幅计算，50%and61.8%的回吐幅度为111and110.15。较大支持则指向250Monthly average line108.40. The upper resistance is seen in50Balance moving average112.80and114.50Horizontal.

Focus:
11month29day(three): Japan10Monthly retail sales annual rate
11month30day(four): Japan10Monthly industrial production‧Japan11月一个月预估值‧Japan12月两个月预估值‧Japan invested in foreign bonds last week‧外资投资日股‧Japan10Monthly construction order annual rate‧房屋开工年率
12month1day(five): Japan10All monthly household expenses‧National CoreCPIthe annual rate‧Nationwide as a wholeCPIthe annual rate‧Japan11Tokyo Regional CoreCPIthe annual rate‧Tokyo region as a wholeCPIthe annual rate‧Japan10Monthly talent seeking and job seeking ratio‧unemployment rate‧日本第三季企业资本支出年率‧Japan11Monthly and daily manufacturing industryPMI

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 114.50* – 114.85 – 118.60
support 113.50 – 113.10 – 111.60



GBP pound - 市场焦点重回退欧谈判

英镑兑美元方面，在本月上旬险守着1.30关口后，近两周英镑缓步回升，本周一升见至1.3279。图表见相对强弱指标及随机指数已达至超买区域，需防范即将面临回调风险。值得留意的是，近月英镑多次冲试1.33关口不果，故汇价此趟若仍无法上破此关口，回吐风险亦会随之加剧。下看支持先为一上升趋向线于1.3090and1.30Gateway,250The balance moving average is currently located at1.28亦为一重要依据。另外，以年内的累计涨幅计算，38.2%and50%的回调水平为1.3015and1.2820Expand to61.8%Then it is1.2620。上方较大阻力预估为1.3450and1.35Horizontal.

Focus:
11month29day(three): UK10Monthly Consumer Credit‧抵押贷款发放金额‧Number of approved mortgage loans‧M4Monthly rate of goods supply
11month30day(four): UK11monthGfKConsumer confidence index
12month1day(five): UK11monthMarkit/CIPSmanufacturingPMI

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Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3300 – 1.3450
support 1.3060* – 1.3015 – 1.2820



CHF Swiss franc - 央行理事暗示央行仍致力于超宽松货币政策

美元兑瑞郎走势，图表所见，由五月至今已走出了一组〝U〞型的技术型态，颈线位置1.01将为上向的重大屏障，闯过此区料可延续新一轮上升动力，之后关键将直指过去两年均未可闯过的1.0350水平，同时亦要注意若汇价于将来意外突破此区，亦象征着由2015年中开始的区间上落行情可能告终，并延展另一轮上涨走势，较近目标料先指向1.05的半百关口。下方支撑先回看250Balance moving average0.9870及年中双底型态的颈线0.9760，关键则指向0.9560Horizontal.

Focus:
11month27day(one)：瑞士第三季非农就业岗位
11month29day(three)UBS Group(UBS)Switzerland10Monthly consumption indicators
11month30day(four)Switzerland Season 3GDP‧Switzerland11monthKOF领先成长指标‧Switzerland10Monthly retail sales annual rate
12month1day(five)Switzerland11Monthly manufacturing industryPMI   

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.9800 – 0.9880 – 1.0000
support 0.9540 – 0.9500 – 0.9400*



AUD AUD - 澳洲央行会议记录不利澳元

澳元兑美元方面，此前汇价一直盘旋在0.76-0.7730美元区间，关键则在250天平均线位置，月初澳元兑美元多次下探此指标，但均未见明确跌破，至上周终见跌破目前位于0.7640of250天平均线，料澳元将重新延展新一浪跌势。预计其后关键支撑将为延伸自年初的上升趋向线，目前处于0.7560水平，下一级看至0.75To the extent that5Monthly low0.7329。至于澳元向上阻力可先参考0.7630and0.7730，下一级则瞩目于50Balance moving average0.7780Horizontal.

Focus:
11month30day(four): Australia10月澳洲HIA新屋销售月率‧建筑许可月率‧澳洲第三季资本支出季率‧厂房/机械设备资本支出季率‧Australia10月民间部门信贷月率‧房屋信贷月率
12month1day(five): Australia11monthAIGManufacturing Performance Index  

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7700 – 0.7830 – 0.7880
support 0.7630* – 0.7550 – 0.7500



NZD New Zealand dollars - 强劲零售销售数据提振纽元

预料延伸下试目标为0.6670水平，关键则直指0.65关口。同时，由去年6月至今，汇价走势亦大致呈现出一组双顶型态，若果型态幅度计算，中线的目标甚至可下延至0.6150水平。至于上方阻力就首要参考0.70关口，在月初纽元的一段反扑行情中，正正是止步于0.70关口之前，因而后市需重新闯过此区才可望纽元摆脱技术弱势。向上较大阻力预计为50Balance moving average0.7050and0.72Horizontal.

Focus:
11month30day(four : New Zealand10Monthly building permit rate‧New Zealand11monthANZ企业展望指数‧ANZEnterprise Activity Index
12month1day(five)：新西兰第三季贸易条件季率‧Seasonal import price rate‧出口物价季率

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7000 – 0.7050 – 0.7200
support 0.6670 – 0.6500



CAD Cad - 呈回软风险

美元兑加元走势，图表见相对强弱指标及随机指数近日重新走高，短线或见汇价可重新转稳。下方支持先会关注上升趋向线1.2710，本周一直力守不失，但倘若后市跌破此趋向线则会破坏近两个月来的上升格局，下延支持看至50Balance moving average1.2530. Gold ratio calculation,38.2%调整为1.2590，延伸至50%and61.8%Then they are respectively1.2490and1.2385。至于向上阻力预估为1.2820and200Balance moving average position1.30Gateway.

Focus:
11month28day(two): Canada10月工业产品价格‧原材料价格
11month30day(four)：加拿大第三季流动帐平衡
12month1day(five): Canada11Monthly job changes‧unemployment rate‧Employment participation rate‧加拿大第三季GDP‧Canada9monthGDPMonthly rate
      
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2925 – 1.3010 – 1.3130
support 1.2650 – 1.2525 – 1.2440



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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)