Crossing the Sea 2017year11month27 (Gold)

Crossing the Sea

2017

year

11

month

27

day

Focus this week:
11month27day(Monday)
U.S.A10Monthly sales of new houses

11month28day(Tuesday)
U.S.A10Monthly Building Permit Revision
U.S.A10Initial value of monthly commodity trade balance
U.S.A10Initial monthly wholesale inventory rate
U.S.A9monthFHFA房屋价格
U.S.A9monthCaseShillerHouse Price Index
U.S.A11Monthly Consumer Confidence Index
U.S.A11Monthly Richmond Fed Composite Manufacturing Index

11month29day(Wednesday)
Initial commercial profit for the third quarter in the United States
Season 3 in the United StatesGDPRevised month on month annual rate
美国第三季消费者支出修订
Season 3 in the United StatesGDP平减指数修订
Season 3 in the United StatesPCE物价指数修订
U.S.A10Monthly Housing Pending Sales Index

11month30day(Thursday)
U.S.A10Monthly actual personal expenditure rate
U.S.A10Monthly personal income rate
U.S.A10Monthly personal expenditure rate
U.S.A10monthPCEprice index
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
U.S.A11Month ChicagoPMI

12month1day(Friday)
U.S.A11monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIFinal value
U.S.A10Monthly construction expenditure rate
U.S.A11monthISMmanufacturingPMI



Important economic data released today:  
09：30 China10月工业经济效益月度报告
09：30 China10月货物和服务贸易收支
09：30 China6月末对外证券投资资产（分国别）
16：15 瑞士第三季非农就业岗位‧Previous value491.5Ten thousand
17：00 Italy11月制造业企业信心指数‧Previous value111.0
17：00 Italy11Monthly Consumer Confidence Index‧Previous value116.1
23：00 U.S.A10Monthly New Home Sales Annual Rate‧forecast62.010000 households‧Previous value66.710000 households
23：00 U.S.A10月新屋销售月率‧Previous value+18.9%



11month24day
LondongoldMorning order price:1289.15
London gold afternoon fixing price:1290.50



XAU London Gold - 黄金千三未破，待变局势持续

美联储上周三晚发布的10month31Solstice11month1日政策会议记录显示，很多决策者预计将不得不在“短期内”升息。决策者普遍认为经济势将强劲成长。多位联储官员也认为，美国国会通过大规模减税的可能性增强，这会带动企业投资。尽管会议记录强化了对下月升息的预期，但是部分决策者对通胀持续低迷感到担忧。会议纪要偏鸽派令美元承压，会议记录显示部分决策者对通胀持续低迷感到担忧，导致2018年的加息预期受到一些质疑。美国核心个人消费支出(PCE)物价指数五年多来一直低于美联储2%的目标，尽管美联储已经采取措施推动政策正常化。上周交易天数因假期而减少，美国市场周四因感恩节假期休市，同日日本市场也因公共假期休市。美元指数周五跌见至92.68，创近两个月低位。本周关注美联储主席耶伦在美国国会有关经济前景的证词，同时亦大量数据公布，重点关注美国GDP，以及一些国家的通胀和PMI等数据。

伦敦黄金上周三升见至1294.68美元，但却仍然未能成功挑战1300关口。技术面黄金当前依旧在通道中运行，并未出现明显的上行趋势，暂时维持对黄金震荡上行的观点，等待市场蓄势完成后选择方向再做布局。再者，金价同时亦正陷入三角型态的末段区域，至今下底及上顶分别位于1273and1294美元，上望较大目标先为10月中旬高位1306水平，随后较大阻力则预估为1313and100Monthly average line1336美元。下方支持回看1278and1266Horizontal.

London Gold11month27 – 12month1Daily predicted wave amplitude
Resistance level:1298 – 1307 – 1327
Support bit:1276 – 1265 – 1245

London Gold11month27day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1280 – 1290
Resistance level:1297 – 1307
Support bit:1272 – 1265

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
11month1Day -849.59ton
11month2Day -846.04ton
11month3Day -845.75ton
11month6Day -845.46ton
11month7Day -844.27ton
11month8Day -843.09ton
11month9Day -843.09ton
11month10Day -843.09ton
11month13Day -843.39ton
11month14Day -843.39ton
11month15Day -843.39ton
11month16Day -843.39ton
11month17Day -843.39ton
11month20Day -843.39ton
11month21Day -843.39ton
11month22Day -843.39ton
11month23Day -843.39ton
11month24Day -843.39ton

12Monthly goldfuturesDue date:12month27day
12Monthly goldoptionDue date:11month27day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Data source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2017year11month2day)

Global:33499.6ton
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3373.7ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.9ton
China(6)：1842.6ton
Russia(7)：1778.9ton
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 银价续陷横盘

伦敦白银方面，银价近月处于窄幅区间运行，顶部大致位于17.30水平，底部约于16.50。此外，一延伸自今年七月的上升趋向线则位于16.85美元，视为较近支持依据，需留意若跌破此区或有着初步下试倾向，较大支持见于16.30and16.00美元。至于向上延伸较大阻力则料为17.70and18.10USD.

London Silver11month27 – 12month1Daily predicted wave amplitude:
Resistance level:17.10 – 17.30 – 17.60 – 18.10
Support bit:16.60 – 16.50 – 16.00 – 15.70

London Silver11month27day
Predicting early wave amplitude:16.70 – 17.30
Resistance level:17.50 – 18.00
Support bit:16.50 – 16.30

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
11month13Day - 9893.21ton
11month14Day - 9893.21ton
11month15Day - 9893.21ton
11month16Day - 9893.21ton
11month17Day - 9893.21ton
11month20Day - 9893.21ton
11month21Day - 9893.21ton
11month22Day - 9893.21ton
11month23Day - 9893.21ton
11month24Day - 9863.86ton
     



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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)