Crossing the Sea 2017year11month17day (Gold)

Crossing the Sea

2017

year

11

month

17

day

Focus this week:
11month17day(Friday)
U.S.A10Monthly Building Permit‧housing starts

11month20day(Monday)
U.S.A10Monthly leading indicator monthly rate

11month21day(Tuesday)
U.S.A10Monthly Housing Sales

11month22day(Wednesday)
U.S.A10Monthly rate of durable goods orders
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
U.S.A11Final Value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for the Month

11month24day(Friday)
U.S.A11monthMarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value
U.S.A11monthMarki制造业购PMIinitial value
U.S.A11monthMarki服务业购PMIinitial value



Important economic data released today:  
21：30 U.S.A10Monthly building permit annual rate‧forecast124.710000 households‧Previous value122.510000 households
21：30 U.S.A10Monthly building permit rate‧Previous value-3.7%
21：30 U.S.A10Monthly housing construction annual rate‧forecast118.510000 households‧Previous value112.710000 households
21：30 U.S.A10月房屋开工月率‧Previous value-4.7%
21：30 Canada10Monthly consumer price index(CPI)Monthly rate‧forecast+0.1%‧Previous value+0.2%
21：30 Canada10Monthly consumer price index(CPI)the annual rate‧forecast+1.4%‧Previous value+1.6%
21：30 Canada10Monthly Central Bank Core Consumer Price Index(CPI)Monthly rate‧forecast+0.3%‧Previous value+0.2%
21：30 Canada10Monthly Central Bank Core Consumer Price Index(CPI)the annual rate‧Previous value+0.8%



News of the Week
埃文斯：美联储应暗示容忍通胀走高，以应对通胀预期下滑
圣路易斯联储总裁称联储暂时应维持利率不变，直到通胀上升
亚特兰大联储总裁博斯蒂克(Raphael Bostic)当天表示，他仍然支持在12Monthly interest rate increase
达拉斯联邦储备银行总裁柯普朗正在“积极考虑”在美联储12月会议上支持再次升息
芝加哥联储总裁称，12月议息时将对利率决定持开放态度
美国众议院通过税改案
达拉斯联储总裁称，失业率下降可能推动加息

U.S.A10Monthly final demandPPIUp from the previous month0.4%, up from the same period last year2.8%
U.S.A10Monthly deduction of final demand for food and energyPPIIncrease compared to the same period last year2.4%
U.S.A10Monthly deduction of final demand for food, energy, and tradePPIIncrease compared to the same period last year2.3%
U.S.A10Monthly deduction of final demand for food, energy, and tradePPIUp from the previous month0.2%
U.S.A10Monthly deduction of final demand for food and energyPPIUp from the previous month0.4%
U.S.A10Monthly CoreCPIIncrease over the same period of last year1.8%
U.S.A10Monthly CoreCPIUp from the previous month0.2%
U.S.A10monthCPIUp from the previous month0.1%、较上年同期上涨2.0%
U.S.A10Monthly deduction of retail sales of automobiles increased compared to the previous month0.1%
U.S.A10Monthly retail sales increased compared to the previous month0.2%



11month16day
LondongoldMorning order price:1277.70
London gold afternoon fixing price:1280.00



Today's Introduction
美元受美国检方行动打击
欧洲央行本周二在法兰克福举行沟通会议，美联储、欧洲央行、英国央行及日本央行的四位央行总裁汇聚一堂，讨论了低利率环境下的政策沟通问题，承诺在逐步退出大规模货币刺激举措时，将继续就未来政策行动对投资者给出指引。这突显在主要央行的弹药库中，沟通仍然是和政策措施一样有效的武器。
美元本周基本上呈守势。美国CPI和零售销售数据双双略高于市场预期，加强了美联储12月升息的理据，但却不足以缓解围绕税改等问题的担忧。此外，美股回落及垃圾债下跌，也打压美元人气。受此影响，美元指数周三一度低见93.402，创下近四周以来的最低水平。美国众议院周四通过了全面减税方案，让共和党议员朝1980年代以来的重大税改整顿迈出重要一步。周五早盘，美元受有关美国选举“通俄门”报导的打击。报导称，对俄罗斯可能干预美国2016年大选进行调查的官员已经向特朗普的竞选团队发出传票，要求提供相关文件。
展望下周，将重点关注PMI、贸易收支及GDP等数据，从中一窥经济成长轨迹。央行方面，将有多位央行官员发表讲话，美联储和澳洲央行还将分别发布上次政策会议记录，有望带来一些经济面和政策面的线索。



XAU London Gold - 美元走软，报导称调查人员要求特朗普竞选团队交出文件

美元周五早盘下跌，此前华尔街日报报导称，美国特别检察官穆勒(Robert Mueller)的调查小组上月对总统特朗普的竞选团队发出传票，要求十几名官员交出包含特定关键词的俄罗斯相关文件。在媒体报导穆勒对十多名政府官员发出传票后，美元闻讯即失去动能，进而全面下滑。另外，美国众议院通过了特朗普所寻求的全面减税方案，通过了第一个或许也是障碍最小的一个议案。接下来将轮到美国参议院讨论税改案，参议院版本的税改已经遭遇一些共和党人士的反对。参议院料将不会有决定性的行动，直到下周的感恩节假期过后。美国联邦基金利率futures目前显示，美国在明年6月以前再度加息的机率高达九成左右，为近几个月来最高水平，只不过在一个月前机率仅约五成。

围绕美国税改议案的不确定性以及美国联邦储备理事会(FED)下月可能升息，都向市场发出了好坏不一的信号，使得金价持续区间波动。现阶段金价正逐步陷入三角型态的末段区域，至今下底及上顶分别位于1271and1288美元，料金价若可脱离此区间将引发单边延伸行情。先看向下破位，以今年累计涨幅计算，38.2%The level of feedback is1268Expand to50%and61.8%Then it is1240and1212美元。至于向上则留意1298，下一关键参考10month16Daily high1306USD.
      
London Gold11month17day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1278- 1286
Resistance level:1292 – 1298 - 1316
Support bit:1271 – 1264 - 1253

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
10month30Day -850.77ton
10month31Day -850.77ton
11month1Day -849.59ton
11month2Day -846.04ton
11month3Day -845.75ton
11month6Day -845.46ton
11month7Day -844.27ton
11month8Day -843.09ton
11month9Day -843.09ton
11month10Day -843.09ton
11month13Day -843.39ton
11month14Day -843.39ton
11month15Day -843.39ton
11month16Day -843.39ton

12Maturity date of monthly gold futures:12month27day
12Monthly goldoptionDue date:11month27day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Data source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2017year11month2day)

Global:33499.6ton
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3373.7ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.9ton
China(6)：1842.6ton
Russia(7)：1778.9ton
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 银价三角末段争持

本周迄今，银价累计上涨1.1%，有望创下五周来最佳单周表现。银价近月处于窄幅区间运行，顶部大致位于17.30水平，底部约于16.50。此外，一延伸自今年七月的上升趋向线则位于16.80美元，视为较近支持依据，需留意若跌破此区或有着初步下试倾向，较大支持见于16.30and16.00美元。至于向上延伸较大阻力则料为17.70and18.20USD.
      
London Silver11month17day
Predicting early wave amplitude:17.00 – 17.30
Resistance level:17.50 – 17.90
Support bit:16.80 – 16.50 – 16.20

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
10month30Day - 9926.85ton
10month31Day - 9926.85ton
11month1Day - 9926.85ton
11month2Day - 9922.58ton
11month3Day - 9922.58ton
11month6Day - 9922.58ton
11month7Day - 9893.21ton
11month8Day - 9893.21ton
11month9Day - 9893.21ton
11month10Day - 9893.21ton
11month13Day - 9893.21ton
11month14Day - 9893.21ton
11month15Day - 9893.21ton
11month16Day - 9893.21ton



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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)