Crossing the Sea 2017year11month13day (Gold)

Crossing the Sea

2017

year

11

month

13

day

Focus this week:
11month14day(Tuesday)
U.S.A10Monthly federal budget
United States10monthNFIBSmall Business Confidence Index
U.S.A10Monthly final demandPP
U.S.A10Monthly deduction of final demand for food and energyPPI
U.S.A10Monthly deduction of final demand for food, energy, and tradePPI

11month15day(Wednesday)
Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Market Index
Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Refinancing Index
U.S.A10monthCPI‧coreCPI
U.S.A10Monthly average monthly rate of actual income per week
U.S.A11New York Fed Manufacturing Index for the Month
U.S.A10Monthly retail sales rate
U.S.A10Monthly retail sales rate after deducting cars
U.S.A9Monthly commercial inventory rate

11month16day(Thursday)
U.S.A9Monthly overall net capital flow
U.S.A9月外国购买美国公债
U.S.A10Monthly import price rate
U.S.A10月出口物价月率
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
Four week average in the United States
Number of Americans reapplying for unemployment benefits
U.S.A11Monthly Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index
U.S.A10Monthly industrial production rate
U.S.A10Monthly capacity utilization rate
U.S.A10Monthly manufacturing output rate
United States11monthNAHBHousing market index

11month17day(Friday)
U.S.A10Monthly Building Permit
U.S.A10Monthly housing construction starts



Important economic data released today:  
07：50 Japan10Monthly Commercial Price Index(CGPI)Monthly rate‧Previous value+0.2%
07：50 Japan10Monthly Commercial Price Index(CGPI)the annual rate‧Previous value+3.0%

11month14day (Tuesday)
03：00 U.S.A10Monthly federal budget‧forecast500A deficit of one billion yuan‧Previous value80Yiyi surplus



11month10day
LondongoldMorning order price:1284.45
London gold afternoon fixing price:1284.30


Today's Introduction
上周没有重要经济数据公布，市场人士都聚焦着美国税改计划的进展，美元也随之起伏波动。周四披露的美国参院版税改方案提议将公司税下调推迟到2019年实施，在一些减税细节上，也与众院版税改方案有所不同，这让市场感到不安，拖累了美元走势。除此之外，纽约联邦储备银行证实该行总裁杜德利将在明年中期退休，他是金融危机期间和之后美国最有影响力的货币政策决策者之一。在刚确定鲍威尔为下任联储主席之际，这又给美联储领导班子带来不确定性。本周美国、加拿大、欧元区以及英国将会公布通胀数据，而日本、欧元区、德国将发布GDP数据，英国和美国还将先后公布零售销售和PPI数据。此外还有多国央行官员将发表讲话。



XAU London Gold - 金价维持盘整，续陷待变局面

伦敦黄金方面，对于美国税改不确定性，支撑金价上周普遍走稳，周四升见至1288.34USD, for10month20日以来最高水平。虽然金价近日稍作走稳，但尚未可走出近期盘整区间，短期金价可能仍会延续窄幅区间内波动。不过，需留意相对强弱指标及随机指数自超买区域有初步回落迹象，或见短线先会存在回吐风险。向下先留意区间底部1263-1265区域，此区同时亦为历时三个多月的上升趋向线位置，故需留意若果下破此区，金价将迎来又一浪的下跌行情。以今年累计涨幅计算，38.2%The level of feedback is1268Expand to50%and61.8%Then it is1240and1212美元。至于向上则会瞩目于1290and50Balance moving average1294美元，下一关键参考10month16Daily high1306，若可突破此区，则可望以小型双底的型态延展升幅。

伦敦白银方面，从2008year10Monthly low18.42美元起始的较长期上升趋向线，今年7month10日的暴挫，其低位正好止步于在线，而目前趋向线延伸至15.05美元，故需高度注意后市若然跌破此区，银价或将迎来又一轮较具幅度的下跌；至于另一延伸自今年七月的上升趋向线则位于16.75美元，视为较近支持依据。型态上看，短线银价则正争持于16.75to17.23美元的三角末段区域，酝酿着即将突破的行情，估计若上破三角，延伸涨幅看至17.50and18.20USD.

London Gold11month13day – 17Daily predicted wave amplitude:
Resistance level:1278 – 1288 – 1300 – 1322
Support bit:1264 – 1253 – 1231 – 1212

London Gold11month13day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1268 – 1279
Resistance level:1284 – 1293 – 1306
Support bit:1263 – 1250 – 1242

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
10month16Day -853.13ton
10month17Day -853.13ton
10month18Day -853.13ton
10month19Day -853.13ton
10month20Day -853.13ton
10month23Day -853.13ton
10month24Day -853.13ton
10month25Day -853.13ton
10month26Day -851.95ton
10month27Day -850.77ton
10month30Day -850.77ton
10month31Day -850.77ton
11month1Day -849.59ton
11month2Day -846.04ton
11month3Day -845.75ton
11month6Day -845.46ton
11month7Day -844.27ton
11month8Day -843.09ton
11month9Day -843.09ton
11month10Day -843.09ton

12Monthly goldfuturesDue date:12month27day
12Monthly goldoptionDue date:11month27day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Data source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2017year9month8day)

Global:33421.4ton
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3374.1ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.9ton
China(6)：1842.6ton
Russia(7)：1729.4ton
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 银价三角末段争持

伦敦白银方面，从2008year10Monthly low18.42美元起始的较长期上升趋向线，今年7month10日的暴挫，其低位正好止步于在线，而目前趋向线延伸至15美元关口，故需高度注意后市若然跌破此区，银价或将迎来又一轮较具幅度的下跌，延伸目标为楔形底部14.50美元，另外，还可参考2015year12Monthly low13.60。短线银价则正争持于16.80to17.10美元的三角末段区域。

London Silver11month13day – 17Daily predicted wave amplitude
Resistance level:17.10 – 17.50 – 18.00 – 18.50
Support bit:16.60 – 16.40 – 15.90 – 15.50

London Silver11month13day
Predicting early wave amplitude:16.50 – 17.30
Resistance level:17.60 – 18.00
Support bit:16.20 – 15.90

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
10month25Day - 9962.09ton
10month26Day - 9962.09ton
10month27Day - 9962.09ton
10month30Day - 9926.85ton
10month31Day - 9926.85ton
11month1Day - 9926.85ton
11month2Day - 9922.58ton
11month3Day - 9922.58ton
11month6Day - 9922.58ton
11month7Day - 9893.21ton
11month8Day - 9893.21ton
11month9Day - 9893.21ton
11month10Day - 9893.21ton



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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)