Crossing the Sea 2017year11month9day (Gold)

Crossing the Sea

2017

year

11

month

9

day

Focus this week:
11month9day(Thursday)
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
Four week average in the United States
Number of Americans reapplying for unemployment benefits
U.S.A9月批发库存修订月率
U.S.A9Monthly wholesale sales rate

11month10day(Friday)
U.S.A11Initial monthly University of Michigan consumer confidence index
U.S.A11月密歇根大学现况指数初值
U.S.A11月密歇根大学预期指数初值



Important economic data released today:  
21：30 Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States(11month4Day and Week)‧forecast23.1ten thousand people‧Previous value22.9ten thousand people
21：30 Four week average in the United States(11month4Day and Week)‧Previous value23.25ten thousand people
21：30 Number of Americans reapplying for unemployment benefits(10month28Day and Week)‧forecast189.0ten thousand people‧Previous value188.4ten thousand people
21：30 Canada9Monthly rate of new housing price index‧forecast+0.2%‧Previous value+0.1%
23：00 U.S.A9月批发库存修订月率‧forecast+0.3%‧Previous value+0.3%
23：00 U.S.A9Monthly wholesale sales rate‧forecast+0.9%‧Previous value+1.7%




News of the Week
Monday/纽约联储总裁杜德利明年中退休，美联储领导班子再添不确定性

China10Monthly Consumer Price Index(CPI)Year-on-year increase1.9%
China10monthCPIMonth on month increase0.1%
China10Monthly Producer Price Index(PPI)Year-on-year increase6.9%
China10monthPPIMonth on month increase0.7%



11month8day
LondongoldMorning order price:1282.25
London gold afternoon fixing price:1284.00



Today's Introduction
围绕美国税改计划的不确定性抑制美元走势
美元兑一篮子货币周四持稳，但对特朗普税改计划可能被推迟的担忧令美元短期前景蒙阴。美国参议院减税议案料将在周四公布，这会令共和党的税改努力复杂化，导致华尔街对这方面努力的疑虑加深。参议院减税议案与众议院的议案不同。减税实施若有推迟或搁浅的可能都将不利于美元。美元最近一直获得支撑，部分原因是预计美国联邦储备理事会(FED)Will be on12月采取今年第三次升息举措，且明年政策还将进一步收紧。



XAU London Gold - 金价区间争持，酝酿突破行情

World Gold Council(WGC)周四的数据显示，上个季度黄金需求降至八年最低，因为珠宝购买量下降，黄金上市交易基金(ETF)资金流入减少。WGC称，整体需求下降9%to915Tons, for2009年第三季度以来最低。这一模式可能延续至全年，WGC预计年度黄金需求仅为3,900-4,000吨，低于2016Of4,347吨。自2009年以来年度黄金需求从未低于4,000Tons.WGC称，受7月新推出的商品和服务税(GST)影响，印度的黄金需求尤为疲软。印度和中国是两大黄金消费国。WGC预计印度全年黄金需求将维持在650-750吨左右，和2016年需求基本持平。中国2017年全年需求料为850-950Tons.WGC还称，股市上涨也转移了投资者对黄金的关注，这削弱了对黄金ETF的买兴。第三季ETF投资不到19吨，低于上年同期的144吨，而金条和金币投资增长17%to222吨。土耳其第三季黄金需求跳增73%to25.4吨，但低于前一季度。WGC说，俄罗斯黄金储备今年以来增加近164Tons.WGC还称，科技领域的黄金需求也增长，受用于高端智能手机的内存芯片的需求提振。供应面方面，第三季整体矿山产量减少1%to841吨，回收黄金供应减少6%to315Tons.

随着美元下跌，金价呈小幅上扬，金价周三创下近三周高位。金价近两周处于窄幅横盘，似乎正酝酿一轮突破行情，下方底部在1263-1265区域，同时亦为历时三个多月的上升趋向线位置；向上则正受制1285美元，在未有重大消息牵动之前，金价短线或会在这区域继续争持，直至脱离区间后才有望出现较显著走向。若果以今年累计涨幅计算，38.2%The level of feedback is1268Expand to50%and61.8%Then it is1240and1212美元。至于向上较大阻力会瞩目于50Balance moving average1295，随后进一步可看至1306and1311USD.

London Gold11month9day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1274 - 1288
Resistance level:1294 – 1306 - 1311
Support bit:1268 – 1255 - 1247

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
10month16Day -853.13ton
10month17Day -853.13ton
10month18Day -853.13ton
10month19Day -853.13ton
10month20Day -853.13ton
10month23Day -853.13ton
10month24Day -853.13ton
10month25Day -853.13ton
10month26Day -851.95ton
10month27Day -850.77ton
10month30Day -850.77ton
10month31Day -850.77ton
11month1Day -849.59ton
11month2Day -846.04ton
11month3Day -845.75ton
11month6Day -845.46ton
11month7Day -844.27ton
11month8Day -843.09ton

12Monthly goldfuturesDue date:12month27day
12Monthly goldoptionDue date:11month27day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Data source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2017year9month8day)

Global:33421.4ton
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3374.1ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.9ton
China(6)：1842.6ton
Russia(7)：1729.4ton
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 银价三角末段争持

伦敦白银方面，从2008year10Monthly low18.42美元起始的较长期上升趋向线，今年7month10日的暴挫，其低位正好止步于在线，而目前趋向线延伸至15美元关口，故需高度注意后市若然跌破此区，银价或将迎来又一轮较具幅度的下跌，延伸目标为楔形底部14.50美元，另外，还可参考2015year12Monthly low13.60。短线银价则正争持于16.80to17.10美元的三角末段区域。
      
London Silver11month9day
Predicting early wave amplitude:16.70 – 17.40
Resistance level:17.80 – 18.20
Support bit:16.30 – 16.00

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
10month25Day - 9962.09ton
10month26Day - 9962.09ton
10month27Day - 9962.09ton
10month30Day - 9926.85ton
10month31Day - 9926.85ton
11month1Day - 9926.85ton
11month2Day - 9922.58ton
11month3Day - 9922.58ton
11month6Day - 9922.58ton
11month7Day - 9893.21ton
11month8Day - 9893.21ton



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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)