Crossing the Sea 2017year11month6day (foreign exchange)

Crossing the Sea

2017

year

11

month

6

day

EUR euro - 欧美政策倾向回异，欧元仍处承压阶段

自七月底至今，欧元兑美元的走势经历了三趟起伏，并形成了一组头肩底型态，颈线位置1.1660, on10月底已告初步跌破，以肩型的幅度计算，下延幅度将至1.1440，头型幅度计算则可至1.1230。另外，由四月低位1.0568至九月高位1.2092的累计涨幅，38.2%的回调为1.1515, and50%and61.8%的调整幅度则会看至1.1330and1.1150水平。至于向上阻力则会关注50天平均线，在10月份欧元兑美元的几度上涨均受着50天平均线所制肘，目前50The balance moving average is at1.1840；因此，若后市欧元依然无法跨过此区，料欧元将继续有下调压力。较大阻力则指向1.20Gateway.

Focus:
11month6day(one): Germany9Monthly industrial order rate‧Italy10monthMarkit/ADACIService industryPMI‧France10monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIFinal value‧Germany10monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIFinal value‧eurozone10monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIFinal value‧eurozone11monthSentixInvestor confidence index‧eurozone9monthPPI
11month7day(two): Germany9Monthly industrial production rate‧法国截至9Monthly budget balance‧法国第四季制造业年度投资预期‧Italy9Monthly retail sales‧eurozone9Monthly retail sales
11month8day(three): France9月流动帐平衡‧trade balance‧Import‧Export
11month9day(four): Germany9Monthly export rate‧进口月率‧trade balance
11month10day(five): France9Monthly industrial production rate‧法国第三季非农就业岗位季率‧Italy9Monthly industrial production
      
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.1720 – 1.1845
support 1.1610 – 1.1490 – 1.1300*



JPY yen - 低位盘旋

技术图表所见，从三月至今，汇价走势已形成三个底部，颈线位置大约处于114.50，但近日连番试探亦未可作上破；估计倘若可突破此区，将巩固美元兑日圆的强势延续；进一步阻力可留意大型三角顶部114.85，延伸目标则会参考今年初高位118.60。下方支持回看25Balance moving average112.90and111.60，较大支撑指向111Horizontal.

Focus:
11month7day(two): Japan9Monthly overtime pay annual rate
11month8day(three): Japan10monthforeign exchangereserve
11month9day(four): Japan10月银行放款余额年率‧Japan invested in foreign bonds last week‧Last week, foreign investment in Japanese stocks‧Japan9Monthly current account‧核心机械订单‧Japan10月经济观察者调查日本服务业景气判断指数
11month10day(five): Japan11Monthly Reuters Short term Manufacturing Prosperity Index

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 114.50* – 115.00 – 118.60
support 112.90 – 111.60 – 111.00



GBP pound - 央行鸽派升息，英镑持续承压

美国总统特朗普上周四宣布，提名鲍威尔出任下一届联储主席，打破先例没有让耶伦连任，但暗示她的审慎货币政策将会得到延续。金融市场对鲍威尔获得提名已有所预期，所以没有什么明显反应。特朗普对鲍威尔的提名确保了美联储货币政策的连续性，这意味着美联储仍处于多次加息轨道上，缩表计划也将继续推进。另外，美国众议院共和党人周四公布了耽搁已久的税改议案，以兑现总统特朗普大幅减税的承诺。这项议案主要有利于企业及富人，一些企业团体很快出面反对，议案能否通过仍有很大未知数。周五美国公布数据显示，10Monthly increase in non farm employment opportunities26.1万个，逊于预估的31万个，失业率报4.1%, estimated to be4.2%；平均时薪较前月持平，预估为增长0.2%。数据一度打压美元，不过，其后因美国工厂订单和服务业数据强劲，美元又重新走稳。

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England(MPC)的九名委员上周四以7than2的投票结果，同意将利率从0.25%Raise to0.5%。央行在决议声明中称，未来加息预计是“逐渐且幅度有限的”。央行在同日发布的通胀报告暗示，合理的预期是，未来三年只会再升息两次，每次升息幅度为25个基点。因此，投资者关注英国央行对未来行动的审慎立场，导致英镑创下五个月来最大跌幅，低见至1.3040水平下方。

英镑兑美元过去两个月持续受压，受围绕英国央行利率行动前景的疑虑以及英国退欧担忧拖累。技术图表所见，英镑自年初以来反复走高，并促成一上升趋向线，构成重要支持位于1.3070，需留意若后市明确地跌破此区，可能会扭转整过上升型态。以同期的累计涨幅计算，38.2%and50%的回调水平为1.3015and1.2820Expand to61.8%Then it is1.2620. Additionally,250The balance moving average is located at1.2760亦为一重要依据。上方阻力预估为1.33and1.3450Horizontal.

Focus:
11month7day(two): UK10monthBRC同店零售销售年率‧HalifaxMonthly rate of housing price index‧UK as of10Three months in a monthHalifaxAnnual rate of housing price index
11month9day(four): UK10月皇家测量师学会(RICS)Price difference
11month10day(five): UK9月建筑业产出‧industrial production ‧Manufacturing output‧对非欧盟贸易平衡‧全球商品贸易平衡

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3340 – 1.3420
support 1.3080/1.3100 – 1.3000* – 1.2770



CHF Swiss franc - 突破关口瑞郎延续涨势

美元兑瑞郎走势，由五月至今已走出了一组〝U〞型的技术型态，颈线位置1.01将为上向的重大屏障，闯过此区料可延续新一轮上升动力，之后关键将直指过去两年均未可闯过的1.0350水平，同时亦要注意若汇价于将来意外突破此区，亦象征着由2015年中开始的区间上落行情可能告终，并延展另一轮上涨走势，较近目标料先指向1.05的半百关口。下方支撑先回看250Balance moving average0.9880及年中双底型态的颈线0.9760，关键指向0.9560。

Focus:
11month6day(one)Switzerland10monthCPI
11month9day(four)Switzerland10Monthly unemployment rate

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.9800 – 0.9880 – 1.0000
support 0.9540 – 0.9500 – 0.9400*



AUD AUD - 乐观国内数据提振澳元

路透调查显示，澳洲央行几乎肯定会在下周的月度政策会议上维持指针利率在纪录低点1.5%不变。路透调查的48位分析师中，有47位预测澳洲央行将在11month7日的政策会议上按兵不动。澳洲央行去年降息两次，之后就一直维持利率不变，因其力图在可能进一步刺激楼市借贷和温和通胀之间取得平衡。

技术图表所见，若果以5month9Daily low0.7329至上月高位0.8125的累积涨幅计算，调整幅度至61.8%Will reach0.7630This area is also250天平均线位置。预计关键支撑将为延伸自年初的上升趋向线，目前处于0.7550水平，下一级看至0.75。至于澳元向上阻力可先参考0.77and25Balance moving average0.7830，下一级则瞩目于50Balance moving average0.7880Horizontal.
      
Focus:
11month6day(one): Australia10monthANZ整体招聘广告月率
11month7day(two): Australia11Monthly central bank interest rate decision
11month8day(three): Australia10monthAIG建筑业指数
11month9day(four): Australia9月房屋融资月率‧Investment oriented housing financing

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7700 – 0.7830 – 0.7880
support 0.7630 – 0.7550 – 0.7500



NZD New Zealand dollars - 脱离五个月低点

图表所见，由2015year8Monthly low0.62延伸至今的上升趋向线位于0.6980，在十月份跌破此区下，或见跌势将更为猛烈，下一级支持位预估为0.68and0.6670水平，关键指向0.65。另一方面，上方阻力则参考50Balance moving average0.7150及下降趋向线位置0.7320Horizontal.

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7000 – 0.7050
support 0.6800 – 0.6670 – 0.6500



CAD Cad - 央行总裁称油价仍是影响加元汇率的最重要因素

美元兑加元走势，自9month8日低位触碰1.2057之后，汇价持续攀升，并已引领9Daily average online breakthrough25天平均线形成gold交叉，释出短中期的上升讯号，料美元兑加元仍大有机会继续探高。倘若以5Monthly high1.3793起始下跌的累计跌幅计算，50%and61.8%The rebound level is1.2925and1.3130，视为汇价上试目标；下一级关键为1.3350。另外，亦要留意200天平均线阻力，目前位于1.30关口。下方支持则会关注上升趋向线1.2580，倘若后市跌破此趋向线则会破坏近一个多月来的上升格局，下延支持看至50Balance moving average1.2460。当前较近支撑则会回看刚突破的100Balance moving average, currently located at1.2630Horizontal.

Focus:
11month6day(one): Canada10monthIveyPMI
11month8day(three): Canada10Monthly housing construction annual rate‧Canada9Monthly building permit rate
11month9day(four): Canada9Monthly rate of new housing price index

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2925 – 1.3010 – 1.3130
support 1.2650 – 1.2525 – 1.2440



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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)