Crossing the Sea 2017year9month18day (Gold)

Crossing the Sea

2017

year

9

month

18

day

Focus this week:
9month18day(Monday)
United States9monthNAHBHousing market index

9month19day(Tuesday)
U.S.A7Monthly overall net capital flow
U.S.A7月外国购买美国公债
美国第二季流动帐平衡
U.S.A8Monthly Building Permit
U.S.A8Monthly housing construction starts
U.S.A8Monthly import price rate
U.S.A8月出口物价月率

9month20day(Wednesday)
U.S.A8Monthly Housing Sales

9month21day(Thursday)
US Federal Funds Rate
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
U.S.A9Monthly Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index
U.S.A7monthFHFA房屋价格
U.S.A8Monthly leading indicator monthly rate

9month22day(Friday)
U.S.A9monthMarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value
U.S.A9monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value
U.S.A9monthMarkitService industryPMIinitial value



Important economic data released today:
09：30 China8month70Monthly Report on Residential Sales Prices in Major and Medium sized Cities
09：30 Australia8月新车销量‧Previous value-2%
16：00 Italy7Monthly trade balance with the European Union‧Previous value12.19Yiyi surplus
16：00 Italy7Monthly Global Trade Balance‧Previous value45.02Yiyi surplus
17：00 eurozone8Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)Monthly rate final value‧forecast+0.3%‧Previous value-0.5%
17：00 eurozone8Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)Annual rate final value‧forecast+1.5%‧Previous value+1.5%
17：00 eurozone8Monthly deduction of food and energyHICPMonthly rate final value‧Previous value-0.5%
17：00 eurozone8Monthly deduction of food and energyHICPAnnual rate final value‧forecast+1.2%‧Previous value+1.3%
22：00 United States9Monthly Residential Builders Association(NAHB)Housing market index‧forecast67‧Previous value68

9month19day (Tuesday)
04：00 U.S.A7Monthly overall net capital flow‧前值净流入77Billion
04：00 U.S.A7月外国购买美国公债‧Previous net purchases197Billion



9month15day
LondongoldMorning order price:1325.00
London gold afternoon fixing price:1322.85



XAU London Gold - 金价下探趋向线支撑，短期料陷于争持

美元在上周三创下近六周的最大单日涨幅后，开始转头回落，周四数据显示，美国消费者物价增速快于预期，提振了美国今年再次升息的预期，但美元短暂上涨后即很快回吐涨幅。美国8Monthly consumer price index(CPI)Up from the previous month0.4%，超过预估值0.3%。不包括波动较大的能源和食品价格的所谓核心CPIrise0.2%。该指标同比上升1.7%，超过分析师预估的1.6%。数据公布后，美国联邦基金利率futures走势显示，市场目前预期美联储12月升息的机率在45%左右，上周初时则在25%左右。市场将关注本周举行的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议，预计美联储将在会上宣布开始缩表；不过，预计会升息的机率为零。

伦敦黄金上周五冲高回落，韩国和日本官员称，朝鲜周五发射一枚导弹飞越日本的北海道，并落入遥远的太平洋海域，进一步加剧了朝鲜近期核试验后的地区紧张局势。在发射飞弹的消息传出后，黄金及日圆曾一度急涨，但市场整体对朝鲜发射导弹的反应仅属短暂，之后已见金价及日圆回吐涨幅。在朝鲜发射导弹后不久，韩国总统府青瓦台宣布即将举行国家安全保障会议(NSC)常任委员会会议讨论对策。日本官房长官菅义伟则强调，日本绝不容忍朝鲜不断进行的超过限度的挑衅行为，对朝鲜提出严正抗议，向其传达日本民众的强烈愤慨，以最强烈的言辞表示坚决反对。日本首相安倍晋三表示，朝鲜发射导弹的行为绝对无法容忍，朝鲜的挑衅对世界和平构成威胁，需要比以往都强力的国际行动来响应朝鲜的行为。

图表走势所见，相对强弱指标及随机指数自超卖区域有所回升，估计金价暂有喘稳空间，较近支持料为1318美元，关键则为起延自七月份的上升趋向线1312水平，此区同时亦接近25天平均线附近位置，需慎防若金价进一步跌破此区，将会有着更大之调整压力。黄金比率计算，38.2%and50%的回吐水平将会看至1300and1281USD, extended to61.8%Then it is1263。另一方面，上方阻力则预估在1334and1341，较大阻力估计为1356Horizontal.

London Gold9month18 – 22Daily predicted wave amplitude:
Resistance level:1325 – 1333 – 1349 – 1373
Support bit:1306 – 1298 – 1287 – 1274

London Gold9month18day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1311* – 1324
Resistance level:1339 – 1354 – 1361
Support bit:1307 – 1298 – 1292

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
8month21Day - 799.29ton
8month22Day - 799.29ton
8month23Day - 799.29ton
8month24Day - 799.29ton
8month25Day -805.20ton
8month28Day -814.36ton
8month29Day -816.43ton
8month30Day -816.43ton
8month31Day -816.43ton
9month1Day -831.21ton
9month4Day -831.21ton
9month5Day -840.08ton
9month6Day -837.12ton
9month7Day -836.87ton
9month8Day -834.50ton
9month11Day -835.68ton
9month12Day -838.64ton
9month13Day -838.64ton
9month14Day -838.64ton
9month15Day -838.64ton

8Maturity date of monthly gold futures:8month29day
12Monthly goldoptionDue date:11month27day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Data source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2017year7month7day)

Global:33465.1 (+39.5ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3374.1ton (-3.2ton)
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.9ton
China(6)：1842.6ton
Russia(7)：1715.8ton (+28.5ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(93)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 银价呈回调风险

伦敦白银方面，RSI及随机指数亦大幅度下冲，料银价短期有进一步回吐压力，向下将瞩目于上升趋向线17.68，若此区亦告失守，则将面临更具规模之下跌。以黄金比率计算，38.2%and50%的回调为16.93and16.54Expand to61.8%by16.14美元。上方阻力则参考18.00，较大阻力则料为18.20and18.60USD.

London Silver9month18 – 22Daily predicted wave amplitude:
Resistance level:17.90 – 18.20 – 18.60 – 18.88
Support bit:17.30 – 17.10 – 16.70 – 16.00

London Silver9month18day
Predicting early wave amplitude:17.40* – 17.80
Resistance level:18.00 – 18.30
Support bit:17.20 – 16.90

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
8month28Day - 10363.03ton
8month29Day - 10363.03ton
8month30Day - 10363.03ton
8month31Day - 10318.94ton
9month1Day - 10304.24ton
9month4Day - 10304.24ton
9month5Day - 10299.95ton
9month6Day - 10202.97ton
9month7Day - 10173.58ton
9month8Day - 10173.58ton
9month11Day - 10173.58ton
9month12Day - 10173.58ton
9month13Day - 10173.58ton
9month14Day - 10173.58ton
9month15Day - 10173.58ton



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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)