Liu Jingcan: Gold has once again reached an eight year high, and the market is bullish on bulls? arrive1921how much longer will it be?

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[b][font=Regular script, Regular script_GB2312, SimKai]Three reasons to be optimistic about the future of gold[/font][/b]
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[b][font=Regular script, Regular script_GB2312, SimKai]　　①ETFDemand Surge [/font][/b]
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[font=Regular script, Regular script_GB2312, SimKai]For risk averse investors such as insurance companies and pension funds, goldETFStill a haven for safe haven funds. In addition, the decline in interest rates and bond yields in developed countries has also increased the attractiveness of gold, and investors have been increasing their holdings of goldETF。[/font]
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[font=Regular script, Regular script_GB2312, SimKai]Last month, there were reports that,5Monthly capital inflow into goldETFThe total amount is337100 million US dollars, refreshing2016Created in the year240The highest record in history of one billion US dollars, and this is only the number one this year5Months.[/font]
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[font=Regular script, Regular script_GB2312, SimKai]Investors are interested in goldETFThe reasons for the sharp increase in interest are as follows: the central bank's balance sheet expansion, economic uncertainty, trade tensions and the continued concern about the COVID-19 epidemic.[/font]
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[b][font=Regular script, Regular script_GB2312, SimKai]② The situation of gold supply exceeding demand intensifies[/font][/b]
　　
[font=Regular script, Regular script_GB2312, SimKai]The large-scale lockdown measures during the epidemic have caused a huge drag on the demand for gold jewelry. The sales of gold have been declining throughout the pandemic, especially in traditional gold consuming countries such as China and India.[/font]
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[font=Regular script, Regular script_GB2312, SimKai]However, the continuous inflow of safe haven funds from developing countries into the gold market has greatly filled the gap in their insufficient demand.[/font]
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[font=Regular script, Regular script_GB2312, SimKai]With the economic restart, gold consumption demand has rebounded. However, the supply side is unable to meet the surge in demand.[/font]
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[font=Regular script, Regular script_GB2312, SimKai]Nowadays, many gold miners are watching the increasing demand for gold, while their business is severely interrupted by the COVID-19 epidemic. Last month,WoodMackenzieEstimate, in order to maintain2019The annual production level of the gold industry must be within2025Year ago44Investment in new projects370USD100mn[/font]
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[font=Regular script, Regular script_GB2312, SimKai]As the heavily affected areas of the epidemic shift from Europe to developing countries, even with a surge in demand for gold, major gold supply countries such as Brazil, Chile, and Peru have had to blockade existing mines. The result is that the shortage of supply in the gold market will intensify.[/font]
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[b][font=Regular script, Regular script_GB2312, SimKai]③ Increased currency risk[/font][/b]
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[font=Regular script, Regular script_GB2312, SimKai]The recent performance of gold can also be attributed to currency risk to some extent, which is reflected in people's increased concerns about the large printing of money by central banks and the depreciation of their own currencies, as well as concerns about "low interest rates".[/font]
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[font=Regular script, Regular script_GB2312, SimKai]At present, the COVID-19 epidemic is still serious, and the number of new infections per day is still hitting new highs. The global wave of unemployment is looming, and the wave of corporate bankruptcy is approaching. All of the above may cause damage to the balance sheets of central banks and governments. At the beginning of the outbreak of the epidemic, the central bank and government were forced to intervene and provide economic assistance to the local people. We believe this trend will continue.[/font]
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[font=Regular script, Regular script_GB2312, SimKai]Although the trend of the US stock market has confused bears, and both bulls and bears are competing between market optimism and the worsening epidemic, gold prices have been continuously strengthening.[/font]
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[font=Regular script, Regular script_GB2312, SimKai]However, while both the stock and bond markets are rising, gold has also steadily risen, indicating that investors are interested in gold in both risk appetite and a safe haven environment.[/font]
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[b][font=Regular script, Regular script_GB2312, SimKai]　　2Only three levels away from a historic high[/font][/b]
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[font=Regular script, Regular script_GB2312, SimKai]Now you finally know why investment banks have the confidence to shout out the golden sword finger2000Let's close it. In fact, when even coin speculators start to look bullish on gold, you probably know how hot the gold market is.[/font]
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[font=Regular script, Regular script_GB2312, SimKai]Famous Cryptocurrency Hedge Fund Manager Mike•Novogratz suggests that people hold more gold instead of Bitcoin:[/font]
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[font=Regular script, Regular script_GB2312, SimKai]I feel that Bitcoin performs better than gold, but I will tell people that gold has greater volatility than Bitcoin[/font]
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[font=Regular script, Regular script_GB2312, SimKai]Technically speaking, the traders are still1800Looking for signals to enter the gold market above the US dollar.[/font]
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[font=Regular script, Regular script_GB2312, SimKai]Distance from historical highs（1921USD) and80The level of the US dollar may seem quite distant, but in fact, before reaching a historic high, gold only had three key resistance levels left, namely1850USD,1881USD and1919The US dollar, these three key resistance levels are all in the2011Of5Tested within the week.[/font]
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[b][font=Regular script, Regular script_GB2312, SimKai]Currently, the consensus in the market is that the gold bull market has started.[/font][/b]
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[font=Regular script, Regular script_GB2312, SimKai]For investors who are more aggressive and hope to seize this bull market, it is important to closely monitor the situation where gold prices have broken historical highs. Because when asset prices break through new highs, the previous price trend will not continue, and gold's rise may be much higher than many people expected. For those who are more conservative, they can look for1800The level near the US dollar serves as support.[/font]
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[color=#ff0000][font=Regular script, Regular script_GB2312, SimKai][b]    Author of this article: Liu Jingcan[/b][/font][/color]
[color=#ff0000][font=Regular script, Regular script_GB2312, SimKai][b]Weixin account:Ljj1632/Gong Zonghao: Liu Jingcan[/b][/font][/color]
[color=#ff0000][font=Regular script, Regular script_GB2312, SimKai][b]Buckle:2747672046[/b][/font][/color]
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[b][font=Regular script, Regular script_GB2312, SimKai]Author's Message: Establish a foundation of integrity, conduct the world with virtue, work with a grateful heart, take responsibility with a responsible heart, pave the way with strength, and lead the market trend with a pattern[/font][/b]