Datian Gold Industry: Delayed Interest Rate Reduction, Gold Prices Fluctuate and Fall

As of2024year02month06日亚盘时段，受到上周非农数据枪机以及美联储利率决议释放出延后降息的信号影响下，gold价格在昨日重新开市后出现震荡下行，目前短期可能还存在回调的空间，因为市场普遍认为六月前降息的可能性并不大，当然后续还需要关注更多的经济数据状况。本周的市场基本面相对较为清淡，可能会继续发酵此前的消息为主，不排除节奏会偏缓慢。

Hong Kong's top ten pension company, Datian Global Zero slip point low point difference:202.hk/zhuanti/cpc_v1.html?c=812

　　非农数据仍对金价形成施压

　　美国非农就业报告如期出炉后，现货黄金一度大幅跳水近30美元，跌至2027.78美元低点，尾盘收报2039.55dollar/ounce.

　　眼下，市场将焦点转向未来一周的重要数据和事件，来自世界各地的主要经济报告和美联储官员的讲话将成为焦点。然而，真正触发市场波动的因素可能是美国CPI修正值，其有可能强化或打破有关降息的预期。

In the1月份的跌幅略高于1%之后，由于各种基本面因素的影响，金价在新的一个月可能会出现更大的波动。尽管金价最初因美联储的鹰派言论而走弱，但由于美国国债收益率下降，以及约旦局势发展引发的地缘政治风险加剧，金价反弹。

　　美国顶级经济数据和美联储讲话可能会影响金价下周的走势。然而，改变游戏规则的可能是定于下周五公布的美国CPI修正数据。

　　CPI修订值每年发布一次，并重新计算经季节性调整的因素，以反映刚刚结束的日历年(2023year)的物价变动。

　　它并没有就此结束;这种例行的年度重新计算也考虑了前5年的通货膨胀。因此，从本质上讲，投资者将看到2019year1Month to2023year12月期间的修订数据。

　　投资者准备好迎接美国对驻约旦美军遇袭的回应，地缘政治紧张局势可能影响金价。人们可能会担心任何报复行为会进一步加剧美伊紧张关系。这种不断增长的不确定性和不安可能会刺激投资者对黄金等避险资产的兴趣。

　　美国军方上周五在伊拉克和叙利亚对超过85个与伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队(IRGC)及其支持的武装组织有关的目标发动空袭，以报复上周末在约旦发生的导致三名美国军人死亡的袭击。

　　这些袭击包括使用从美国起飞的B-1战略轰炸机，这是拜登政府对伊朗支持的袭击采取多层次反应的第一步，预计美国即将采取更多军事行动。

　　美国和英国周六对也门境内的36个目标发动了打击，这是继上周末美军遭到致命袭击后，美国针对与伊朗有关联的武装组织第二天采取重大行动。

　　五角大楼称，打击了胡塞武装用来袭击红海航运的地下武器储存设施、导弹系统、发射装置和其他设施，并补充说，打击目标遍布也门13个地点。

　　crude oil大跌后市或测试70Gateway

　　原油市场上周遭到重大打击。由于暂停以色列-The negotiations of the Hamas war reduced the geopolitical risk premium of crude oil, causing a sharp drop in oil prices. After crude oil fell below key technical levels, the decline accelerated.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated3The possibility of monthly interest rate cuts is low, and the market has turned to expectations5The significant monthly interest rate cut, however, the strong non-agricultural data on Friday also made this expectation less realistic.

According to data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics,1Non-agricultural employment increased in the month35.3Ten thousand people, far exceeding expectations18.5Ten thousand people, even exceeding the predictions of all analysts. Meanwhile,12The monthly employment number has increased from the original21.6Up to 10000 people33.3Ten thousand people. The unemployment rate has remained at for the third consecutive month3.7%, lower than expected3.8%The number of unemployed individuals remains stable at610Ten thousand.

　　1The monthly average hourly wage growth rate has reached a year-on-year level4.5%, for2022year3The highest since the month, higher than expected4.1%。12The monthly salary growth rate is determined by4.1%Up to4.3%The month on month growth rate has reached0.6%Expected0.3%Twice.1The average weekly working hours of non farm workers in the month have decreased0.2Hours to34.1Hour, reduced throughout the year0.5And dropped to the lowest level in the most serious period of COVID-19.

After the release of non-agricultural data, the market reacted strongly: the US dollar index rose across the board on Friday, reaching a seven week high;The decline in spot gold has expanded to over1%;The US stock market index fell more than180Point, followed by a reversal and a rise of over200点，收盘仍涨逾百点，与标指同创新高，纳指在MetaUnder the leadership of Amazon, the performance is relatively strong. United States2year/10The yield curve of one-year treasury bond was further inverted after the non-agricultural employment data, and the inverted range was the largest in nearly a month.

High interest rates seem to persist in major economies such as the United States and the eurozone in the short term, which typically suppresses economic growth and oil demand. According to data released on Friday, the United States1The monthly increase in non farm payroll jobs far exceeds expectations, thereby reducing the likelihood of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in the near future. Therefore, the US dollar has risen significantly against all major currencies.

　　KpleranalystMatt Smith指出：“在报告发布之前，物价持续上涨，变化甚微，但就业岗位的大幅增长正在推动降息。”在欧洲，一位欧洲央行政策制定者也表示，欧元区降息还为时过早。

On Thursday, unconfirmed news of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas led to a drop in oil prices exceeding2%This leads to a weekly decline in oil prices. The mediator is waiting for a response to the proposal to extend the ceasefire. Extending the ceasefire may alleviate the political risks faced by the Gulf and Red Sea waterways, which are crucial for global energy flows.

According to sources on Thursday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries(OPEC)And its allies led by Russia(Collectively referred to asOPEC+)Maintain the production policy unchanged. These sources indicate that the organization will3The month will decide whether to extend the voluntary oil production reduction implemented in the first quarter. last year11Month,OPEC+Announce production reduction for the first quarter22010000 barrels/Day.