Da Tian Jin Ye: Non agricultural data remains strong, but gold instead rises

As of2024year02month05After experiencing a series of heavyweight data and events from last week, the Riya market,goldThe price continues to maintain an unstoppable trend, indicating that the future prospects are still highly anticipated. Firstly, the Federal Reserve has released a dovish attitude, downplaying the expectation of a rate hike in March. However, Friday night's non farm payroll data performed well, once again exceeding market expectations. This theoretically puts pressure on gold prices, but gold broke through at one point2050Backpressure.

Hong Kong's top ten pension company, Datian Global Zero slip point low point difference:202.hk/zhuanti/cpc_v1.html?c=812

　　The timing of interest rate cuts may be postponed to June

Despite the postponement of interest rate cuts, spot gold continued to decline at the beginning of the week due to the weakening of the US dollar and concerns about the banking crisis4Rising in several trading days, reaching its highest point2065USD.

However, Friday was briefly lost under the suppression of strong non-agricultural forces2030Horizontal, closing this week2039The US dollar barely closed higher on the weekly chart1.05%The overall trend is showing a rise and fall, ending the previous two consecutive weeks of decline.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated3The possibility of monthly interest rate cuts is low, and the market has turned to expectations5The significant monthly interest rate cut, however, the strong non-agricultural data on Friday also made this expectation less realistic.

According to data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics,1Non-agricultural employment increased in the month35.3Ten thousand people, far exceeding expectations18.5Ten thousand people, even exceeding the predictions of all analysts. Meanwhile,12The monthly employment number has increased from the original21.6Up to 10000 people33.3Ten thousand people. The unemployment rate has remained at for the third consecutive month3.7%, lower than expected3.8%The number of unemployed individuals remains stable at610Ten thousand.

　　1The monthly average hourly wage growth rate has reached a year-on-year level4.5%, for2022year3The highest since the month, higher than expected4.1%。12The monthly salary growth rate is determined by4.1%Up to4.3%The month on month growth rate has reached0.6%Expected0.3%Twice.

　　1The average weekly working hours of non farm workers in the month have decreased0.2Hours to34.1Hour, reduced throughout the year0.5And dropped to the lowest level in the most serious period of COVID-19.

After the release of non-agricultural data, the market reacted strongly: the US dollar index rose across the board on Friday, reaching a seven week high;The decline in spot gold has expanded to over1%;The US stock market index fell more than180Point, followed by a reversal and a rise of over200The closing price still rose by over a hundred points.

Set a new high with the benchmark index, while the NasdaqMetaUnder the leadership of Amazon, the performance is relatively strong. United States2year/10The yield curve of one-year treasury bond was further inverted after the non-agricultural employment data, and the inverted range was the largest in nearly a month.

US dollar index climbing0.9%This has led to higher gold prices for overseas investors. Meanwhile, benchmarks10The yield of one-year treasury bond also showed an upward trend.1In the month, American employers created35.3Ten thousand job opportunities, far exceeding expectations18Ten thousand.

Optimistic labor market data is expected to make Federal Reserve decision-makers more inclined to maintain higher interest rates for an extended period of time. According to observations from the Federal Reserve of the ChiNext, traders currently expect the United States to5The likelihood of a monthly interest rate cut is approximately70%And before the data was released, it was92%。

　　crude oilRising first and then falling due to a decrease in geopolitical risks

The crude oil market suffered a significant blow this week. Due to the suspension of Israel-The negotiations of the Hamas war reduced the geopolitical risk premium of crude oil, causing a sharp drop in oil prices. After crude oil fell below key technical levels, the decline accelerated.

High interest rates seem to persist in major economies such as the United States and the eurozone in the short term, which typically suppresses economic growth and oil demand. According to data released on Friday, the United States1The monthly increase in non farm payroll jobs far exceeds expectations, thereby reducing the likelihood of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in the near future. Therefore, the US dollar has risen significantly against all major currencies.

On Thursday, unconfirmed news of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas led to a drop in oil prices exceeding2%This leads to a weekly decline in oil prices. The mediator is waiting for a response to the proposal to extend the ceasefire. Extending the ceasefire may alleviate the political risks faced by the Gulf and Red Sea waterways, which are crucial for global energy flows.

According to sources on Thursday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries(OPEC)And its allies led by Russia(Collectively referred to asOPEC+)Maintain the production policy unchanged. These sources indicate that the organization will3The month will decide whether to extend the voluntary oil production reduction implemented in the first quarter. last year11Month,OPEC+Announce production reduction for the first quarter22010000 barrels/Day.

In addition, the power outage of BP has also led to a decline in oil prices. Mizuho Bank'sBob YawgerThe refinery in Whiting, Indiana experienced a power outage on Thursday afternoon, resulting in operational disruptions. BP stated that power to the refinery was restored on Friday noon, but it is unclear what impact this will have on crude oil processing.

BP(BP)Due to power outages, the company's daily production in Whiting, Indiana43.5The refinery with ten thousand barrels is currently closing. Huiting City stated that the power outage caused visible flames to rise and products to burn.

　　OPEC+Currently voluntarily reducing daily production220Ten thousand barrels, the production reduction plan was implemented last year11Announcement of the month.OPEC+stay2023The performance of the year-end production reduction was mediocre, which is a key point in the oil price debate as this indicates2024The level of market tension in the year was lower than initially expected.

　　OPECAvoid discussing policy adjustments during the meeting The oil market remains fragile.OPECIt stated that it will adhere to its production reduction plan this quarter as the organization seeks to avoid oil surplus and boost prices. Representatives attending the meeting stated that at Thursday's meeting, a major member group led by Saudi Arabia suggested not changing policies.