CPT Markets: USA12monthPCEThe index is at its slowest level in nearly three years! Jiayang Maintenance...

dollar/Cad (USD/CAD)：

USD/CAD last Friday due to the Bank of Canada maintaining interest rates at5%The constant fluctuation of the Canadian dollar hovers around1.3445Up and down, the US dollar index fluctuated and fell to103.45Nearby, the basic inflation indicators that the Federal Reserve is concerned aboutPCEThe annual growth rate has shown the slowest level in nearly three years, which has intensified market expectations for the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates.

Governor of the Bank of Canada McLehm The central bank is currently considering how long the interest rate restriction should last. McLehm emphasized the need to provide more time for higher interest rates so that they can effectively complete their work. In addition, according toCMEFederal Reserve Observation2Monthly interest rate maintained at5.25%-5.50%The probability of interval invariance is97.4%Interest rate reduction25The probability of a basis point is2.6%. to3The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged on a monthly basis is52.6%Accumulated interest rate reduction25The probability of a basis point is46.2%Accumulated interest rate reduction50The probability of a basis point is1.2%. In terms of monthly personal expenditure data in the United States, American consumers continue to show resilience, which may keep the Federal Reserve on the sidelines for a longer period of time. Although the data basically meets expectations2.9%The core ofPCEThe statement that the annual rate of the price index is slightly better than expected, which helps to bring inflation back down. However, consumer performance has been booming, with a significant increase in consumption this month and a slight upward revision in data from last month.

Last Friday, in terms of financial event data, the US Department of Commerce announced12monthPCEThe monthly rate of the price index is as expected2.6%and0.2%Deducting the core monthly rate of the food and energy sectors with significant fluctuations compared to the same period last year2.9%and0.2% This reflects that inflationary pressure remains at a fixed level. In addition, the US Department of Commerce immediately announced12The monthly actual personal consumption expenditure rate has risen for the second consecutive month0.5%. As the main supporting factor for consumer spending, the growth of actual disposable income0.1%But the increase is the smallest in three months.

From the upward direction, the upper suppression(Upper resistance) 1.3440，1.3480； From the downward direction, the lower support1.3400。

euro/pound (EURGBP)：

After a slight increase in the closing price of the euro against the pound last Friday, consolidation occurred0.8545Nearby, now At the beginning of the year, financial market interest rates began to rebound as central banks around the world dispelled expectations of recent interest rate cuts.

Northern United BankNordeaEconomists generally maintain the benchmark forecast unchanged, but believe that the European Central Bank may advance,FedThere is a possibility of delaying interest rate cuts. We currently maintain our benchmark forecast unchanged, as we have found that recent developments do not justify any greater changes. We continue to predict that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year100 The first interest rate cut will be based on3 On a monthly basis, but this is more due to the fact that the Joint Executive Board12 The dovish signal sent at the monthly meeting, rather than our views on the development of the US economy. The risk tends to start later and with fewer interest rate cuts. The European Central Bank almost unanimously believes that interest rates should not be lowered in the near future. We still believe that the European Central Bank will 6 First monthly interest rate cut 25 Basis points and quarterly interest rate cuts since then 25 A basis point, but the risk tends to start earlier and lower interest rates more significantly.

In terms of financial event data last Friday, German market research institutionsGFKpublish2The monthly consumer confidence index fell below expectations-29.7The decline in consumer confidence index indicates a decrease in future spending, which is unfavorable for economic growth. In terms of relatively favorable data, UK market research institutionsGfK  NOPpublish1The monthly consumer confidence index has improved compared to expectations-19。

From the upward direction, the upper suppression(Upper resistance) 0.8540，0.8590； From the downward direction, the lower support0.8500。

CPT MarketsRisk Tips and Disclaimers : The above article content is for reference only and is not intended as future investment advice.CPT Markets The articles published are mainly based on international financial data reports and international news as reference.