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The data and event importance for this week, from high to low, are as follows: United States12Monthly CorePCE物价指数年率、日本央行开年首个利率决议、加拿大央行1月份利率决议。我们来逐一分析解读:
This Friday21:30, 美国商务部将公布美国12Monthly CorePCEAnnual rate of price index, previous value is3.2%, expected3%,预期将下降0.2个百分点。同一时间还将公布美国12Monthly nominalPCEAnnual rate of price index, previous value is2.6%,预期将保持不变。美国PCE数据经常出现在美联储会议纪要当中,对美联储货币政策调整起到至关重要的作用。上周五公布的美国一年期通胀率预期从3.1%Descend to2.9%,降幅0.2Percentage points.1month11Published on12Monthly and quarterly adjustment coreCPIAnnual rate, from4%Descend to3.9%,降幅0.1个百分点。两项前瞻性的通胀率指标都认为美国的12月份的通胀率将降低,所以市场预期12Monthly CorePCE数据也将下降,预计准确率较高。通胀率下降意味着高通胀正在降温,美联储将一定程度上失去维持高利率的依据,降息预期可能升温,利空美元指数。
This Wednesday22:45The Bank of Canada will announce1月份利率决议结果,市场预期基准利率将维持5%不变。当天23:30,加拿大央行行长麦克勒姆将召开新闻发布会。由于和美国的经贸关系密切,所以加拿大央行的货币政策往往与美联储货币政策共振。在美联储尚未开启降息操作之前,加拿大降息的可能性也不大。另外,加拿大12monthCPIthe annual rate3.4%,虽然高于2%的温和通胀,但相比前两年仍处于相对低位。12Monthly CoreCPIAnnual rate from2.8%Descend to2.6%,剔除能源和食品的物价水平仍有疲软态势。核心通胀下行意味着商品需求被过度压缩,加拿大央行的降息预期将有所增强。1月份央行决议按兵不动的话,对加元形成一定的利多提振。
Risk reminder, disclaimer, special statement:
There are risks in the market, and investment needs to be cautious. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not consider this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' perspectives may change, and updates will not be notified separately.