ATFXCurrency: Switzerland12monthCPIAnnual rate increase0.3One percentage point, high inflation fears in Europe...

On Monday, the Swiss Federal Bureau of Statistics announced Switzerland's DecemberCPIRelated data, including DecemberCPIThe annual rate is1.7%, previous value is1.4%, raise0.3Percentage points; DecemberCPIMonthly rate0%, previous value is-0.2%, raise0.2Percentage points.CPIBoth year-on-year and month on month increases indicate signs of an upward trend in Switzerland's inflation rate. Due to the absolute value still being below2%The moderate inflation level in SwitzerlandCPIData cannot be called high inflation. Other countries in Europe are different, such as Germany in DecemberCPIAnnual rate from3.2%Raise to3.7%There is already a possibility of entering a state of high inflation again. The inflation rate in the eurozone has changed from2.4%Raise to2.9%Similarly, it represents a resurgence of high inflation. The Swiss Central Bank and the European Central Bank have both suspended interest rate hikes twice in a row, and the possibility of resuming rate hikes is unlikely. However, ifCPIThe data continues to rise, and the timing of interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank and the Swiss Central Bank will be significantly delayed, which is bullish news for the Swiss franc and Irvine.


From a technical perspective, the daily trend chart of the US dollar against the Swiss franc is in a medium to long term bearish trend,12month8Daily setting a temporary low point0.8332Subsequently, a rebound was initiated. At present, the rebound band has a relatively small amplitude and short duration, which cannot disrupt the bearish trend structure. Recently, a fewKThe line has formed a top fractal structure, and it is expected that the rebound will encounter obstacles, with a high probability of a rebound in the future. Oscillation indexKDThe reading is in the middle area, and the fast and slow lines move upwards, indicating that there is still ample room for rebound. Top fractal structure andKDThere is a conflict in the judgment of indicators.macdThe bar line of the indicator has just crossed the zero axis upwards, indicating a possibility of a bullish medium-term trend. As the absolute value of the bar line is still relatively small, this possibility is still relatively low. Overall, most indicators believe that the rebound band of the US dollar against the Swiss franc has ended, but as the volatile indicators have not yet entered the overbought zone, it is possible that the market may not experience a decline so quickly in the future.

From an economic data perspective, Switzerland's macroeconomy is in a healthy state.reyes2023In the third quarter of the yearGDPThe annual growth rate is0.3%, remaining at the same level as the previous value; The unemployment rate is only2.1%Far below5%The standard for full employment is low, and there are relatively few unemployed people in society; The inflation rate is1.7%, at2%Near the moderate inflation standard; benchmark interest rate1.75%, andGDPGrowth rate andCPIThe annual rate matches, unlike the benchmark interest rate in the United States which is much higher than the economic growth rate. Most importantly, the total debt of the Swiss government accounts forGDPThe proportion of weight loss41.4%And it is in a downward trend. In an era where central banks around the world are vigorously printing money to support government spending, the Swiss central bank has maintained sufficient restraint and composure, making the Swiss franc a safe haven currency. Overall, good economic data and healthy fiscal performance enable the Swiss franc to appreciate against the US dollar with a high probability in the medium to long term.

Risk reminder, disclaimer, special statement:
There are risks in the market, and investment needs to be cautious. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not consider this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' perspectives may change, and updates will not be notified separately.

2024-01-09