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2024美国开年第一份非农就业报告表现靓丽,具体为:美国12Non agricultural employment population after rose adjustment21.6万人,高于前值为17.310000 people, higher than expected17Ten thousand people;12Monthly unemployment rate3.7%, unchanged from previous values, slightly lower than expected3.8%。一方面是非农业人口增加,另一方面是总体失业率下降,两方面利好因素叠加,意味着美国劳动力市场需求旺盛,美国宏观经济韧性极强。但是,非农数据发布之后,从分钟级别来看,美元指数先是从102.68跳涨,五分钟内触及最高点103.08,随后开启持续性下跌,盘中最低触及101.91,以最高至最低来计算,累计跌幅高达0.75%。为什么非农数据靓丽但美元指数表现还如此疲软?我们认为有以下几点原因:
第一,国际市场对于美联储的降息预期依旧非常强烈。动力市场需求旺盛,转化为工资收入提高,进而推升消费者物价。但是,从终端消费来看,美国的CPI年率并没有出现抬头迹象:2023year11Of the monthCPIThe annual growth rate is3.1%,处于近五个月以来的最低水平。劳动力市场和消费者物价的传导并不顺畅,这在一定程度上削弱了非农就业报告对美联储货币政策的影响。本周四,美国劳工部将公布十二月份的CPI年率数据,由于德国和欧元区的通胀率已经出现了抬头迹象,所以市场预期十二月份的美国通胀率数据也将走高。果真如此的话,CPI和非农就业报告联动,周四的美元指数收阴的概率较高。
Risk reminder, disclaimer, special statement:
There are risks in the market, and investment needs to be cautious. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not consider this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' perspectives may change, and updates will not be notified separately.