关联数据方面,昨日公布的美国12monthADP就业人数为16.410000 people, the former value is10.110000 people, expected11.5万人,最新值远高于前值和预期值,意味着12月份美国劳动力市场需求旺盛。同一天公布的美国至12month30Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week20.210000 people, the former value is2210000 people, expected21.6万人,最新值低于预期值和前值,意味着失业率人数正在下降。两项关联数据表明,美国的劳动力市场非常健康,并没有出现此前市场预期的经济硬着陆问题。需要提醒的是,ADP数据的权威性并不高,历史上也经常出现和非农数据相反的结果,以今日晚间的非农数据仍有利空的可能。
last year12month27日至今,十年期美债收益率曲线不断走高,意味着市场的降息预期正在减弱。如果晚间的非农数据超预期利好,美债收益率将再次大幅上行。不过,美债长短期收益率倒挂的临界期已经缩短至4W,也就是一个月时间。从这一点来看,降息预期虽然有所减弱,但一季度美联储降息的可能性依旧非常高。
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